Comments on: 2001-Replay Meme Spreads http://www.trivisonno.com/2001-meme-spreads Bear Market Growls Until January 2010 Wed, 20 Aug 2008 09:09:58 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/2001-meme-spreads#comment-399 admin Sun, 11 May 2008 23:54:29 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=91#comment-399 Hi Brian, That's a pretty long time to be range-bound - 6 months - especially when the economy is deteriorating. I think the market will follow the economy down because so many traders already assume that the recession and bear market have come and gone already. Matt Hi Brian,

That’s a pretty long time to be range-bound - 6 months - especially when the economy is deteriorating.

I think the market will follow the economy down because so many traders already assume that the recession and bear market have come and gone already.

Matt

]]> By: Brian http://www.trivisonno.com/2001-meme-spreads#comment-397 Brian Sun, 11 May 2008 22:26:29 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=91#comment-397 "Claud" compares the present day market to 1990: http://www.patmedia.net/claudb/ My thoughts: The SP500 drops to the 50 day SMA and we stay in a trading range until after the election. Look for a raly in retail next week. “Claud” compares the present day market to 1990:

http://www.patmedia.net/claudb/

My thoughts: The SP500 drops to the 50 day SMA and we stay in a trading range until after the election. Look for a raly in retail next week.

]]> By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/2001-meme-spreads#comment-380 admin Sat, 10 May 2008 23:17:15 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=91#comment-380 Hi Akula, Thanks for the kind words. Looking at the S&P 500's 50-day EMA, I see almost the exact same pattern now as at the peak in October: On October 11th, SPY closed 4.5 points above its EMA. At the peak on May 2nd, SPY closed 4.9 points above. In both cases, the EMA line was rising with about the same slope. If you have posted any of your research, please post a link. I'd love to take a look at it. Matt Hi Akula,

Thanks for the kind words. Looking at the S&P 500’s 50-day EMA, I see almost the exact same pattern now as at the peak in October: On October 11th, SPY closed 4.5 points above its EMA. At the peak on May 2nd, SPY closed 4.9 points above. In both cases, the EMA line was rising with about the same slope.

If you have posted any of your research, please post a link. I’d love to take a look at it.

Matt

]]> By: Akula http://www.trivisonno.com/2001-meme-spreads#comment-379 Akula Sat, 10 May 2008 21:46:07 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=91#comment-379 Oops! Actually the link was at Russ Winter's blog and not Calculated Risk. Oops! Actually the link was at Russ Winter’s blog and not Calculated Risk.

]]> By: Akula http://www.trivisonno.com/2001-meme-spreads#comment-378 Akula Sat, 10 May 2008 21:44:40 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=91#comment-378 Found your site though a link at Calculated Risk and really like your Tax Withholding work. I also have noticed the similarities with 2001 but also noticed with some additional backtesting that these Bear Market Rallys tend to peter out at the 50 Week EMA with the odd temporary throwover to keep everyone honest. I've bookmarked your site and hope to pop in to see what's cooking from time to time. Keep up the good work and good luck! Found your site though a link at Calculated Risk and really like your Tax Withholding work.

I also have noticed the similarities with 2001 but also noticed with some additional backtesting that these Bear Market Rallys tend to peter out at the 50 Week EMA with the odd temporary throwover to keep everyone honest.

I’ve bookmarked your site and hope to pop in to see what’s cooking from time to time. Keep up the good work and good luck!

]]>