Archive for October, 2008

CNBC Declares New Bull Market

Friday, October 31st, 2008

On CNBC at about 2:52pm, Matt Nesto declared that the bear market was over and a new bull market has begun. His evidence: “October is the bear killer.” Several bear markets in history have ended in October, and its October now, so the bear market must be over. Right?

Seems a bit flimsy to me.

Nesto also mentioned the VIX, but is the VIX’s bull run really at an end? Here is how I draw my VIX trend line (click to enlarge):

The chart uses daily closing levels, and I think that the purple line best represents the major trend. The green line is a minor trend line that has indeed been breached. Before we can presume a new bull market, or even a new bear-market rally, I think the purple line needs to be breached.

If you look at an intra-day chart of today’s trading, you will see that Nesto’s report almost perfectly top-ticked the action. So far, so bad.

If CNBC had informed us that the bull market had ended last year, I would take today’s declaration more seriously. But what are the chances of CNBC getting this right? In fact, I’m sure they’ve got it exactly wrong.

Let the record show that CNBC declared the 2008 bear market to be over on the very day that the great bull market that began in the early 1980′s came to an end.

Friday’s Trading

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

SPY Hanging Man
SPY has a bearish hanging man candlestick pattern on its daily chart, and the McClellan Oscillator is overbought.


Watch the comments for updates throughout the day.


SPY Rectangle

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

SPY may be forming a neutral rectangle pattern. Here is a 60-minute chart showing the potential rectangle bounded by purple lines (click to enlarge):

The lower purple line is well established, having been touched a few times. The upper purple line has seen a lot of trading action. It is possible that this rally wave will top out there Friday. If so, I may do some shorting at that level in anticipation of a pullback, especially since month-end markup buying will disappear on Monday.

Year-End Markup

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

The big funds are fighting surprisingly hard to support the market for their month-end markups. I have heard that this is fiscal year-end for most mutual funds, so perhaps they set aside an extra-large pile of cash to paint some greatly-improved numbers onto their annual reports.

Also, perhaps they don’t fear prosecution by the SEC here in Black October for blatantly running the market up. Since the government is desperate to levitate the market, perhaps the SEC even gave them the wink.

Or maybe Obama’s Plunge Production Team, which struck yesterday afternoon, is being routed by the Republican Plunge Protection Team which is trying to fool voters into thinking that the recession is over.

In any case, holding long positions at the end of the month has been a bad idea lately since the market usually falls when the big funds pull their bids in the new month.

Here is an updated version of the chart that I posted last month in The New Month Massacre, a post that saved you a lot of money (click to enlarge):

The purple arrows point to the beginning of each month since June. Note that the S&P 500 was levitated at the end of each month, and immediately fell in the new month – especially September and October.

Will November play out the same way? It looks to me like there is a rather large mark-up going on now, so maybe it will. If it does not, and the market continues to rally, then that’s a pretty good sign that it is the real deal.

Thursday’s Trading

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

Global Trade Grinds to a Halt
We’re hearing a lot about a credit thaw, but according to this Bloomberg story, global trade is still slowing down because of credit problems. Here is a quote from a shipping broker:

“We only see this kind of shock when we have outbreaks of war, or maybe the oil shocks of the 1970s…”

Cargo is still piling up on docks, and jobs are being lost above and beyond would we get if this were a plain-vanilla recession.

Pension Funding to Cut Dividends and Jobs
Pension plans own stocks, and since stock prices are down, companies are legally required to put more money into their pension plans. They are getting the money by cutting dividends and laying off workers. See the Bloomberg story here.

Put/Call Ratio Signals Danger
The last time that the put/call ratio was this low was right before the October plunge. Not bullish…

The Immelt Meltdown
GE CEO Jeff Immelt, got the blame for pulling the rug out from under the market before the close on Wednesday, but was it all really just a mistake? Maybe, but last I heard, GE was “participating” in the Fed’s commercial paper program (translation: begging for money.) If GE is so shaky that it is having trouble selling its CP on the open market, then why would the stock market even bother paying attention to anything Immelt is saying?

The truth is that what we saw in the last 8 minutes of trading was just more of the same: redemptions. There simply isn’t anything else short of a major disaster that could cause such selling.

The “Finite De-Leveraging” Meme
This meme says that hedge-fund de-leveraging is a “finite event.” At some point it will be over and the market will go back to the land of rainbows, lollipops, and puppy dogs. While it is true that it certainly will end at some point, where will the market be at that time? I’m guessing that we will be under the 2002 lows. And how will we be able to get back above without any leveraged-up hedge funds to gun stocks higher again?

A few days ago I posted a link to a story stating that hedge funds had $1.6 trillion dollars under “management”. It is estimated that they have barfed up about 10% of that, and may go as high as 30%. And I don’t know if that includes European hedge funds. Of course, the mutual fund industry is much larger, and they appear to still be getting redemptions too. And gargantuan pension funds like Calpers also have to sell.

The dramatic whoosh down that we had Wednesday afternoon almost certainly was not the last.

Bearish Doji Star
SPY, QQQ, and IWM all have patterns very close to the bearish doji star. XLF couldn’t quite muster enough of a rally for the doji, and it’s 4.9% drop on Wednesday is a bit of a red flag.