The TRIN sell signal that I wrote about on Monday has intensified. Since it is a three-day average, Thursday’s selling has dropped off and Tuesday’s buying has been added on. So the average now stands at 0.68 and is the most overbought reading since February 26, 2008 when it hit 0.62 during another month-end mark-up period. Funny how that works, right? By March 10, 2008, the S&P 500 had dropped over 100 points (click chart to enlarge):
Probably the only way that this signal could be wrong would be if the masses were stampeding back into stocks. And since SPY’s daily volume has dropped for three straight days, I’m guessing that is not the case. So, I added to my short positions on Tuesday and will keep selling into strength until I have a huge mound of triple-short ETF’s on hand for when this month-end markup is done.
October’s month-end markup gave us a fantastic shorting opportunity, and this month’s chart pattern isn’t looking too different. As I mentioned back then, the SEC is probably giving the wink to the big funds to run up stocks, which is normally against the law on the last day or two of the month. It’s a huge gift for a short trade.