XLF Descending Triangle

The XLF has been declining for three weeks, and its hourly chart now has a bearish descending triangle pattern (click to enlarge):

The red lines outline the triangle.

The light blue lines show the “Three Fan Line Rule” and indicate that the XLF is probably rolling over – a typical way for a bear-market rally to end. Today’s rally served to put a third fan line on many charts, and you will also see many descending triangles too.

Tuesday’s Trading

Reindeer 6, Bears 0
The talking heads on CNBC today were all upset that there was no Santa Claus rally. But in fact, the S&P 500’s Santa Clause rally now amounts to 6 points. The SPX closed at 863 on December 23rd, so that is the starting point.

The bears are “getting the antler” from the reindeer right now, but the technicals look very shaky to me. If the market holds up through the end of the year, I think it will only be because the big funds are painting the tape. So, don’t go getting all bullish. The market will likely flop right over first thing in 2009.

TIKI Trading

In the comments today, we were discussing the TICK, and Dave brought up the TIKI, which is the Dow TICK. So here is an example of how I would use it (click chart to enlarge):

The daily closing $TIKI is the blue line at the top, and I have added Bollinger Bands. The candlesticks at the bottom are the daily SPX. I have put a purple arrow at each point where the $TIKI hit the bottom Bollinger Band. I have also put purple arrows at the next day’s SPX candle.

Buying the open and holding until the close the day after the $TIKI hit the lower Bollinger Band would have given you three winning trades over the past two months. This happens because TICK extremes usually reflect overbought/oversold conditions.

Monday’s Trading

Month End Markup
Can the big funds keep the market levitated for three more days while the Israelis are bombing Gaza? With incredibly light volume and the SEC looking the other way, I’m guessing that they can.

Now We Know Why the UAW Wouldn’t Take a Pay Cut
They have a ritzy country club to maintain! Black Lake should be opened to the tax-paying public until Detroit is off the public dole.

The USA’s Demise
A couple of weeks ago, I linked to a story about the Russian Professor who is predicting the breakup of the USA. Now the Wall Street Journal has done a story on him.

In Other News…
…it looks like General George S. Patton was killed by American and Russian assassins instead of dying in a car crash at the end of World War Two.