Dividend Holiday for Banks?
Will Santa be shot down by talk of a “dividend holiday” for banks? I don’t know where this meme got started, but it popped up on Tuesday. I can see Obama ordering TARP-recipient banks to stop paying dividends. That’s some good red meat for his constituents, but obviously can’t be good for the XLF.
Cramer Turns Bearish
Cramer turned bearish on his “Mad Money” TV show Tuesday night – after the market had been falling for a week. Nice timing Cramer. By contrast, here’s me sounding the alarm, and shorting the market, an eyelash away from the exact top on the 16th.
SPY Plunge Target
If the statistically-reliable Santa Claus Rally doesn’t happen this year, and the Contrary Cramer signal fails, and the big funds have run out of money to run-up their stocks for month-end window dressing, then we need to have a downside target for the market.
Aside from various support levels, SPY left behind a large gap on the morning of November 24th. The top of that gap is at $81.17, which seems like a long ways away in our newly un-volatile market, but you should have it on your charts anyway.
Of course, many stocks have the exact same gap. In fact, Apple made the trip on Monday and bounced off of the top of its gap. So, watching how Apple handles the gap may give us clues as to how the rest of the market will.
If the double-top on SPY’s hourly chart completes, it will take SPY down to fill the gap. So, that’s a pretty good place to expect a substantial bounce before the market continues lower.
The market was very excited on the morning of November 24th. It was ecstatic over the Citigroup bailout. Now it is having second thoughts: “Should I have really been so excited? Did the bailout really solve the economy? Maybe I should make a trip back down to do some more thorough price discovery….”
I don’t think that gap will be filled until early January, but you can tell the market is thinking about it right now.