I let Ziggy, my futures scalping program, trade with real money this afternoon. I turned it loose in my account around 1:30pm and let it run until the end of the day. It had full authority to make trades and didn’t ask me if I approved or not.
Ziggy made 9 scalps with 6 wins and 3 losses in a nearly flatlined market, and made a total profit of $66.10. So it made $26.40 per hour, which is much better than minimum wage. And that was with one ES contract. With 10 contracts the profit would have been $661, and if I had sold my condo and given it 100 contacts to trade, it would have been $6,661.
So, we have proof of concept: Ziggy will work in the real world. But a problem has surfaced. Should Ziggy use market orders or limit orders? Good fills are very important for a scalping program like Ziggy because it is like a discount retailer: working on razor-thin margins and making it up on volume.
At first glance, you would want to use limit orders to get the price that you have calculated to be a bargain for the recent price action. But limit orders also guarantee that you will miss trades, especially when the market is moving fast and runs away from your price. Market orders will always get filled, but the prices that you get will often be slightly worse than with limit orders. The good thing about the futures market is that I have never seen a bad tick. The ES never trades at some absurd price for one tick like you see SPY doing frequently, especially outside of regular trading hours. Because of that, you can use market orders with futures and not worry about getting pole-axed.
The frustrating thing is that back-testing and optimization can’t help your with making the limit-or-market order decision because no back-testing technology can precisely simulate a real market.
So, I think I will have Ziggy use market orders for now. The results it achieves will be less than those projected by my back-testing. However, I continue to make improvements and the back-testing results keep getting better and better, so while Ziggy’s transition into trading with real money won’t be completely smooth, I’m confident that it will be profitable.
(Note: I am not ignoring your comments, but I am pretty much coding around the clock and barely have time to read my own blog. So, don’t feel like I’m ignoring you.)