Archive for January, 2010

Friday’s Trading – 1/15/10

Friday, January 15th, 2010

The futures popped and flopped after Intel’s earnings-report beat after the bell on Thursday. That’s not the sort of reaction that you want to see if you are a bull. It’s usually not a good sign if the market fails to go up on good news.

This morning on CNBC, Steve Liesman “reported” that the Census would not be substantially contributing to jobs until April. But you read it here first six days ago.

The stock market will be closed Monday, but futures will be trading for part of the day. Here is the schedule.

Thursday’s Trading – 1/14/10

Thursday, January 14th, 2010

DIA and IWM have closed their Tuesday down-gaps. However, while SPY, QQQQ, and XLF were able to rally up-and-over their gaps, they weren’t able to close the deal. They sold-off before the bell and closed under their gaps. So, we still have a mixed picture as to whether or not Tuesday’s jolt was only a one-day affair. NASDAQ-100 breadth Wednesday was +84, which is a very strong reading, and the Q’s still couldn’t close their gap, so that looks bearish to me. But the oversold RSI(2) on the QQQQ daily chart that I mentioned yesterday worked like a charm, did it not? The fate of he Q’s may be in the hands of Intel, which reports after the bell.

Port-au-Prince has been flattened. “Cries from victims entombed beneath concrete debris pierced the air of seemingly every street…” reports the Wall Street Journal. Can you imagine that? The WSJ has a harrowing slide-show here.

Wednesday’s Trading – 1/13/10

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010

For the bears: None of the top ETF’s that I follow (SPY, QQQQ, IWM, XLF, DIA, IYT, XME, SMH, EEM) were able to close their down-gaps Tuesday. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a synchronized sell-off like that, and it is a bearish indicator because it demonstrates a lack of sector-rotation.

For the bulls: The RSI(2) on the QQQQ daily chart is at an oversold level that has been producing bounces recently.

Redonkulous: My bank just moved to a new building, which is plastered with signs that read “Bank Solid”. They also have video screens now where they show stupid news about celebrities, stock quotes of the Dow-30, more “Bank Solid” messages, and dumb advice. The screen told me: “Eat Your Vegetables. Eat Solid. Bank Solid.” I’m not making this up. The ironic part is that I did not require any assistance from the government to survive the recession. I did not require any TARP funds like my bank. If I were them, I wouldn’t be lecturing people on how to “be solid.”

Tuesday’s Trading – 1/12/10

Tuesday, January 12th, 2010

I made a typo yesterday, the SPX’s 100-month moving average is at 1156, not the 200-month.

IWM Fractal End-of-Trend Signal

Monday, January 11th, 2010

In addition to the extreme Vix level discussed in the prior post, an additional headwind for the market here is that the IWM is in end-of-trend territory on the Fractal Dimension Index. Take a look at this daily chart (click to enlarge):

Notice that the FDI is down to a level now (black arrow) where the July rally ended (blue arrows). So, the small caps are likely to consolidate or pullback in the near future. Other sectors with similar, low FDI readings are: XME, XBI, XLE, and JNK.