Futures pushed a couple of points higher over night, but fell back when the GDP number at 8:30am came up short of the consensus estimate. Breadth got stretched to the upside yesterday, so without a positive catalyst, the bulls may encounter tough sledding today. Chicago PMI at 9:45, Consumer Sentiment at 9:55, and then the crickets take over.
Archive for April, 2010
The NASDAQ-100 is trying to make a “golden cross” on its weekly chart. A golden cross occurs when the 50-period simple moving average (green line) crosses above the 200-period average (blue line). See the red arrow (click chart to enlarge):
The last time this happened was the week of September 10, 2004. The NDX closed that week at 1413, and over the next three years rallied up to a peak of 2239:
This is a rare bullish event. My charts don’t go back far enough to find another occurrence, though there could have been one after the 1987 crash.
The S&P 500 will need to stay strong for many more weeks before it can make a golden cross of its own. The last time, it crossed up several weeks before the NDX did, on July 23, 2004. This time, the NDX is leading, probably because of Steve Jobs, and the absence of banks in the index.
What did I tell you about the European Union of Dunces? And now that the EUD is flying apart, what are the chances that the Fed will say or do anything hawkish today at 2pm? Got to be zero, right? But what about the ECB? What if they go nuclear, and start buying government bonds in the open market? Will we be treated to the “Greece is Saved!” Rally #7?
God Works for General Motors
What happened to CNBC? This new “politicians shouting at bankers” channel sucks, though I do enjoy the four-letter words. The best part came just before 10pm when David Faber asked Lloyd Blankfein about his “doing god’s work” comment. Being under attack as he is, you might think that Blankfein would strike a humbler tone, or say that it was a sarcastic comment intended as a joke. But no, he did no such thing, and spoke along the lines of “what’s good for Goldman Sachs is good for America”. I can tell you one thing for sure about Blankfein: he will never be a politician. Note to Blankfein: stop painting targets on your clueless self. (The video of the interview is supposed to be here, though it wasn’t working when I tried to look at it.)
Zero Edge posted yet another comically inaccurate withholding-taxes chart yesterday. However, I will no longer be commenting on what they do as I now believe that the mathematical errors are willful instead of simply the result of incompetence. Zero Edge is clearly dedicated to the production of bearish propaganda, just like CNBC puts out bullish propaganda. And there is no point in arguing with beartards any more than there is in arguing with bulltards. In other news, The Fly is making fun of Zero Edge too in his hilarious cartoons.
I almost choked to death while laughing with glee when I saw these two bars on yet another moronic chart from Zero Edge:
Those bars are supposed to be a tally of withholding-tax collections from the 14th week of last year and the 14th week of this year. I’m sure that it looked perfectly normal to a poser like “Tyler Durden”, but to an actual expert on the subject, such as myself, it was a blatant error. The IRS often rakes in that much in a single day, let alone a week! The actual numbers are much larger. So, to grade Mr. Durden’s work, I must award him another:
And what about Zero Edge’s readers who commented on the post, many of which took shots at me? Not a single one of them caught the error! Big, floppy clown shoes all around!
Hang your head in shame Zero Edge community!
In your collective face!
Also, let the record show that Zero Edge is still refusing to acknowledge the giant withholding-tax cut implemented in 2009. To adjust for that would make their charts look much less dire. And we couldn’t have that, now could we?
As always, the only accurate and unbiased presentation of this vital data can be found at DailyJobsUpdate.com, which is operated by your hero (that would be me in case you are confused on the subject.) And, I will have you know that I publish charts both with and without adjusting for the tax cut, which is the only honest, professional way to present the data.
P.S. In case you are wondering, there is no disaster happening with the withholding data.