Note to bulls: maybe this film shot from a San Francisco streetcar in 1906 will calm you down; like watching fish swim around in an aquarium:
Hat tip to my colleague, Larry Miller.
Note to bulls: maybe this film shot from a San Francisco streetcar in 1906 will calm you down; like watching fish swim around in an aquarium:
Hat tip to my colleague, Larry Miller.
I love the trippy trance-like jazz music, it sets the scene nicely… although ironically the people in the scene preceded both trance and jazz… despite the financial crises these are the best of times for some things (like music variety).
The Sovereign Debt Bomb Goes Off
http://thereformedbroker.com/2010/02/04/the-sovereign-debt-bomb-goes-off
Getting ugly out there, wear a helmet.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/james-chanos-on-earnings-shorting-china/
up down volume info on here http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/volume/shortupdownvol.htm
Hmmm, we are spoiled by Matt’s daily musings. Did the wordpress auto-scheduler eat it?
it ate it!
MATT>>>>>>>ALL seems calm just before the PANIC of 1907 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907
Phil,C wave scaring you?
Market has stabilized for now, think we get a nice bump up from here…
SCOTTY….correction may be over already but i dont see enough bear excitment for my liking
aka he doesn’t see K happy
SCOTTY….i will liquidate all remaining shorts on any further weakness…i think shorts are pressing their luck here
trend down. support 1040-1050 (tonight 1050.5 did the trick), 1080 target for a bounce.
I agree I would like to see a test today of 1055-1057 then a small bounce in the close.Then bounce Mon &. Tue Make that one more test of 1055ish
scotty..downside momentum is waning…(barring pm collapse)…. we could not touch daily lower boll band on spx…so far
If we hold the LOD I go long into close
phil, boll band touch on es yesterday and today. If we collapse pm then rebound next week , though so far the market does not favor the bulls for too long.
I don’t feel very bearish. But I might be talking my book since I am only 5% short.
There are too many buyers out there.
Or maybe the Bulls are already all in and none of the bears are short? And is the Euro about to collapse?
Cannonball
Best watched from the sidelines
Dollar shooting up
What’s up with DJUSFN? Literal sideways move.
Charts would look nicer with one more new low today. Then the ii bounce. If we cross 1060, then looks like already on ii.
phil,
you are right, bears arent excited because they expect worse.
Junglegirl VS CNBC. Junglegirl is winning. Keep
it up. We are sending you a fleet of Brinks
trucks. Hope you can duplicate 1987 black
Monday.
I can’t believe it, but market proflie says that
small accounts continue to buy dips…big
accounts continue to take profits. There
have been only a few margin calls so far.
Unable to call the big margin call line in
the sand right now, but if we get it, we
should have a selling climax.
Paula—rofl! Where does one send those trucks when full?
Junglegirl,
To your bank. When you buy BB&T give
George 1 share.
FALLING WEDGE with throw under now on spx and dow?…i am going to cover shorts now
LOOKING for 1051 to cover
And new lows it is. I do like a tidy chart.
QQQQ looks ready to turn up
FINGER on short cover trigger…..
THROW under now….if it gets back inside wedge … shorts are gone
Phil,
what is your take on TLT
My roadrunner broke a leg this morning. Why? Because we have gushy rains with some flooding.
STILL below lower wedge line….is it really a diag triangle JG or am i misreading it?????
We close under 1050 I will be watching for 1035 dollar is surging
K……looks like flight to quality but i am not buying…stock decline is really juicing up my treasuries..esp the zero coupons….i will want to sell more bonds into this rally
paula, agree with your market profile analysis.
dax hitting 5400 as potential reversal area now.
JG…..looks like it went too far down for diag tri throw under…thoughts?
PLUS..friday is not a good day for a reversal….usu its turnaround tuesday
phil says:
February 5, 2010 at 11:21 am
scotty..downside momentum is waning…(barring pm collapse)…. we could not touch daily lower boll band on spx…so far
SCOTTY>>>>>>note parentheses and last 2 words above
COVERED dow shorts…..still have some QID
GOOD weekend all…….hasta la vista
Wait for 1030-1035 to hit at the close or Monday,then bounce,then you will a nasty leg down making this look like a walk in the park
The way the dollar is surging Scotty will sit and watch,not saying will happen but this is what fuels crashes
DJUSFN has the best waves today, IMHO. At first the morning action looked like it could be a w4 flat. But really it looks more like a w4 symmetrical triangle. Then, you’d expect a thrust, or if not a thrust a more extended 5 wave down move. This all being part of a larger degree w3, looks like we go the more extended 5 wave move. If this is true, we should make one final new low (unless it truncates, which doesn’t fit the extended personality) before getting a ii retrace of the wave that started on Feb. 3. Just an opinion.
If DUSFN w4 was indeed a flat, then all 5 waves of subwave 5 can be counted as in. In that case 5 > 3> 1.
Myself, I like the triangle better, but the market will have to tell us.
Guess it did.
Wow. Lift-off. Think they want the DOW over 10k for the weekend?
Possible zigzag in the offing. W4 of the A leg on the SPX right now?
ZZ or flat? Halfway through or almost done? Dunno. Reloaded some play shorts. See what the weekend brings. Load the rest at a better or worse price… whatever.
DOW 9999.69 a second ago. Okay, a minute or two ago. Internet service went out unexpectedly.
If it’s a zz, the 61 Fib and upper channel line could potentially be in the offing. Being in a w3 bodes against moving that high; being a weekend to allow for a futures gap might allow for such a high. Asian markets will be interesting.
Where is everyone?
BOUGHT and SOLD SCHX for a 7c gain in last 20 min…thats the beauty of no commission trading
If this is a flat, then the 1,2 1,2 fractals could be repeating forms. After all, that’s what fractals are.
junglegirl says:
February 5, 2010 at 3:52 pm
“Where is everyone?”
I was Internet challenged – was out all most all day, sometimes in then back out again.
I missed a good day. But I made up for it yesterday.
i stepped to go to work at 2pm exactly!!! and thats when markets turned
my whole account was up 7.5% by then.. when i came back it was up only 1.7%
K,
How is your fund doing?
Junglegirl,
What do you think of a SPX move to
1080 and then the bottom drops out?
Several experts are calling for a March 5
low in the SPX 990 area…then a retest
of the 1150 high followed by a 2 year
move down.
paula, I’m not an expert but I can see what you’re seeing in my shattered crystal ball.
jg, oracle says now we are in wave 2, and still has an alt count to accomodate for paula’s last sentence… The EW doom is not easy to reconcile with the other information out there. (A short term implosion of the carry trade does not equal the perpetual decline.)
Paula,
I made my members to agree to sell many of our holdings.
bad thing is we could only sell on thursdays so as you saw thursday was a bad day.
we increased our cash position by 1000%. a bit over 55% invested currently and we can only go long.
K,
Good Luck!!! with your fund. Hope you turn it
into a real winner.
Paula, yes, the 1080 area is what I was describing by the 62 Fib and channel line sentence. IF it’s a zz, we could hit 1080-1087 range… possibly Tuesday. Then a hard down if that count is correct.
Yerk, by wave 2 does he mean minute wave 2… in other words the wave 2 that corrects the fall from the January high and not from 1104.xx? I suppose that’s possible, but I don’t like the wave proportions for it. I also don’t like the action of how that plays with respect to some formulas I wrote on wave action. They play better if we are on a bounce within minute wave 3 down. Thanks for posting. It’s always good to consider the oracle, as you have said.
We either saw a burst of short covering or
buying out of the NY Fed Friday afternoon.
I am looking at the market profile data…but
still can’t tell where the buying burst came
from.
Junglegirl,
When you buy BB&T, please give George 10
shares instead of 1.
Paula, lol. Having filled all those trucks you sent him, George can buy BB&T himself… and take it private!
Junglegirl,
Good point. You may have to buy additional
equipment for the 2 year run to your SPX
target in the 400 area.
I just got a pay increase.
George,
After you buy BB&T, will you return the bank
to just banking…no more unregulated derviatives…
…etc???
junglegirl, the 2 for the whole dump is his alternate now, his prime is the same 3 you are having us in. target is 1080ish, alt 1120.
paula,
Sure. But that means we’ll need to raise fees, inflict penalties, lower interest on CDs and interest-bearing accounts, and cut dividends to the bone.
…just sayin’ …gotta get it from somewhere.
George,
Talking like a CEO.
Geo the CEO, all I want is mo, mo, mo.
Yerk,
Thanks. That sounds better.
George,
Too funny. You have way to much character, class, and heart to be anything but the best of CEOs. CEO GEO does have a nice ring to it!
You guys and girls are confusing me. GS says SPX 1300 by mid year. Phil says we move to new highs. Y’all seem to think we somehow fall to 400. Now which is it. I have been listening to Tim and Ben and they seem to think things are fine. I am confused. I think I will just buy a Brinks truck and lease it to George, Paula and JungleLady!
String
String,
You may be right, but several experts I respect
have a SPX low on March 5 followed by a retest
of the SPX 1150 high followed by a 2 year move
down. Are they right? The tape will tell us.
CyclePro has the DOW/Gold ratio moving to
1 in the 2012-2016 time period. That fits
Junglegirl’s SPX target of the 400 area.
The bottom line is…trade the tape.
String,
Trading is a game. If the market moves as you
expect, you mortgage the house. For example…
if the SPX is in the 990 area early March, a safe
option trade would be to buy the May OEX calls.
If you are not trading futures, I like the OEX
because they give you leverage. SPX calls give
you twice the leverage, but are also twice the
price.
Lets say the OEX is in the 420 area early March…
if I buy the May 450 calls and the market moves
to test the prior highs, my OEX 450 calls should
be worth $8000.00 each in May.
The market gives you about 2 to 4 times every
year to make a big killing. We are in one now…and
if we see an early March low, you will have a second
time in 2010 so far.
String,
In early March, you would have to pay
around $600.00 for each May call 30
points out of the money. You are looking
for a $7400.00 profit for each call you buy.
But if the tape is not playing your game, you
adjust to the tape’s game.
String,
Never short OEX options(sell premium). OEX
options can be marked to market any time.
String,
Why would I mark my OEX option to market?
Let say I bought the May 450 call in early
March, and the OEX moved to 530 by May
but instead of selling for $80 (times 100)
it was selling for $78 (times 100). I could
tell the broker to mark it to market and
collect the $80 (times 100). The broker
would take the money from the person
who sold the premium…and you never
want to be that person…you always want
to be the person who is collecting.
Stringm,
RE: “I think I will just buy a Brinks truck and lease it to George, Paula and JungleLady!”
Now you’re talking. That’s the entrepreneur in ya. I like it.
Stringm, have a look at the last two Bill McLaren-Reports.
Checking google-news I got Greece on the top page in the US, the French complaining about the US attacking the Euro, and nothing in the UK or Germany. Still looks like a controlled move to me. Too many talking about the plunge from 1080 though. If it is getting too obvious it will not happen.
Thanks, I’ll keep all your advice in mind.
String
Matt, I hope all is well…
I forgot that the superbowl is on today. I need to check out their uniforms to see which one is the prettiest.
I see why they have that game in Florida; Northern VA got 30″ of snow on top of the 6″ already on the ground. I hear tell that the birds walk up to the feeders now.
I was reading the latest “X-Factor”, from Street Talk Advisors where they wrote about the “Super Bowl Factor” which relates to the current economy.
So I did a Google and came up with this from Barry Ritholtz:
http://tinyurl.com/yhrrl57
Somebody leaked an Avatar DVD screener, and millions of people are downloading it now. It appears that the DVD was one given to Academy members so that they could evaluate it for the Academy Awards. If that’s the case, chances are good that the FBI will catch the leaker. Wouldn’t it be funny if it were a rival director like George Lucas? Especially since the leaker will probably do time.
George
NO Saints are the pretty ones. My old dead brother in law will dance in his grave if they win. A life long Saints fan died of a heart attack at 62. Good ole curly headed Cajun. I’ll be rooting for Riley to dance in his grave. Woueezianna needs something positive.
String
Stringm,
Thanks. I needed someone to root for. GO SAINTS!
We’re going to see Avatar 3-D tonight. I’ll have to keep tabs with my iPhone. We chose tonight *because* of the superbowl. The past 2 times we’ve tried, it’s been sold out.
I gaurontee… as Justin would say…
Thanks George,
Riley will dance in his grave for you. He was a logger. His dad was killed as a logger when he was a young man. Load of logs fell off a truck and crushed him. Riley took over the business and prospered for a time, but times are up and down for loggers. I am with Matt on keeping jobs here in the states. Balancing World trade is a huge trick though. Especially when all anybody wants is more! Luckily I don’t have long to worry about it, but my grandkids do.
String
Interesting idea it is…
http://rawstory.com/2010/02/south-carolinas-subversive-activities-registration-act-force/
Yerk
This might even apply to the Tea Party movement that just had a convention in Nashville.
String
Is it just me or is Timmy’s statement scary?
WASHINGTON (AP) — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (GYT’-nur) says the U.S. government “will never” lose its sterling credit rating despite big budget deficits and a newly increased debt limit that now tops $14 trillion.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Geithner-says-US-credit-apf-1486523126.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
Always and never are tough words to use in this world. Arrogance tends to get punished harshly sooner or later. Empires rise and empires fall. Ask Rome, ask Britain, and someday people will be asking about the United States.
Matt, hope you enjoyed the Super Bowl in your backyard. Phoenix was a blast 2 years ago! Have you given any more thought to posting your daily essay earlier than 9 am as I had requested? Thanks.