Yes, the blip-up in some of the data caused by the tax-rebate checks is causing a good deal of false hope at the moment. But the jobs report on Thursday might be enough to send the market through the March low. Oil has been battering stocks, but the biggest plunge in the S&P 500 came after the last jobs report on June 6th.

With all the layoffs in the auto industry, banks, airlines, etc., I can’t see anything but a nasty number coming.

Matt

I will have more to say about that after the S&P 500 takes out the March low. In the mean time, I think 2001 is a good precedent to study. Take a look at this page where, a few weeks ago, I compared our recent bear-market rally to a couple of such rallies in 2001. A trade-able intermediate-bottom shouldn’t come until after a sickening decline that causes everybody to stop looking for a bottom.

Matt

We’re probably not there yet? The data is not bad enough. And the oil-related stocks holds the market up. However, those thousands of factories in China will soon be empty and commodity markets will tumble.

That should help spur several bear-market rallies in USA and W Europe, somewhat muted by Exxon, Shell, Oil services, etc. The big money to be made next 6 months will be in resource-related exchanges such Toronto, Oslo and Sydney.

When commodities have crashed, house prices continue to fall and consumer still not buying, I believe you will see the final capitulation and a crash.

Above based on Austrian view, who predicted Great Depression and the current environment. I recommend cash, shorts and focus on your day-time job. (I know you asked Matt, but I couldn’t resist:)

Care to take a WAG as to how low we go before a tradable bottom is in place.