The SPX has made a double-top (red arrows) right at the first level in the Box of Beer, and then fell back down into the Box of Bulls (click chart to enlarge):
Back in August, the market made a top just below the second level of the Box of Bulls (blue arrow). It then proceeded to fall to the last level of the Box of Miracles (purple arrow) where it oscillated for a couple of days before rampaging 80-some points to the top of the Box of Bulls (green arrow).
If the SPX continues to fall on Thursday, there should be some sort of support around the last level of the Box of Bulls at 1068.11. That’s also the area to which a double-top breakdown would project.
I finished my Heineken tonight so no more beer. The chart seems about right.
Now all I have to do is fight the bulls then perform a miracle and your whole chart is obsolete.
Anyone care to help?
Guess what S3 is for tomorrow on the futures? Pivot is 1081.
S1 1063.5
S2 1055
S3 1037.5 !!!!! LOL
Resistances
R1 1089.5
R2 1107
R3 1115.5
Night all. Futures still in a bear flag while I’m speculating will take them all the way to 1063.
Price has touched resistance and backed off. Will b see if it has enough to break through!
btw Matt,
This site is my “Facebook” LOL
Matt – love those nested boxes. Stole the technique and adapted it to my own purposes. Keep having a bunch of stuff come back ~ 1088.
http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2009/10/markets_away_run_baby_run_or_s.html
First major update in a while FWIW guys. Put up some charts adjusting the SPX for exchange rates – wouldn’t believe how bad it looks. Worth some thought, perhaps?
Matt says 1068 and K says 1063.5 are downside targets. Love to see either of you right! As would string.
However, looking at the upside targets, what I’m getting from this commentary is this: if the SPX opens above 1081, look for it test/break 1085 (back into the Box of Beer), and if it does so, it will probably get to 1089 pretty easily (R1). Am I understanding this correctly? Thanks.
i will have a beer out of that box,futes just turned green
2thfixr i am usually talking about /es (s&P futures) so they are usually off from the SPX index itself just fyi.
THAT’S RIGHT. TODAY, OCTOBER 22ND IS INTERNATIONAL CAPS LOCK DAY. IT’S TIME TO PUSH THAT KEY ON THE LEFT SIDE OF YOUR KEYBOARD AND MAKE THE INTERNET A VERY LOUD PLACE TODAY. YAY!
http://www.stocktock.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/xlfd.png
K
U SO FUNNY.
George, are you currently in any of the SRS / FAZ / SDS / SKF, or did you trade out yesterday ?
thx
after,
I went flat yesterday.
I figured that late day move was “reactionary” and could be answered by a nice reactionary reversal.
We see that intraday all of the time where price will make a sudden and large move in one direction only to reverse. In fact, often these do not affect the longer/higher intraday chart time frames like the 15min (no MA or MACD crosses). This one did which is understandable due to there needing to be a pullback at some point. The pressure built up too much.
However, I would have no problem having a substantial position in any of the inverse at the current time.
Thanks Matt and George for your insight.
Matt, at 8 am Eastern, looking at the Dec 09 futures, I see that there was a high just over 1078 and a low of 1072. Is this the futures contract you are referencing?
2thfixr,
Yes, when I say “futures” am I am referring to the front-month “E-mini” contract. Symbol: ES. It might be “mini” but it trades much more volume than the “large” contract (SP). December is the “front month” now, and “Z” is its letter. So, sometimes you will see the symbol written as ESZ9 or ESZ09. Also, your futures broker might put another symbol in front of the ES. For example, ThinkOrSwim puts a slash, and on some TradeStation charts, you might see an at-sign like this: @ES, etc.
Matt