What’s that you say? You don’t have your automated trading strategies running in the cloud? WTF?
The SPX had its final-hurrah today up at 1060 just as my “cloud computing” indicator went purple (click to enlarge):
White bars indicate a neutral condition; yellow means caution, red means the rally is toast, and purple is a brick wall. If all four bars go red/purple, then the bulls are about to get tossed on the barbie.
The cloud indicator gives mean-reversion signals. So, I only use it during the middle of the trading day. The first and last hours of trading exhibit positive feedback more often than not, so trend-following strategies usually work better than mean-reversion strategies. However, the color of the cloud often gives a clue about the next morning. Here is how the octo-cloud looked at Friday’s close:
The market was poised to roll down from a stretched condition, and it was indeed weak first thing this morning.
Here it is at today’s close:
Light blue is a bullish signal; green is a buy signal, and navy blue means the market can’t really drop any more without some consolidation first. Even though the market was in a positive-feedback plunge into the close, notice that it flattened out after the cluster of navy blue bars at 15:20pm. It spent 25 minutes consolidating before beginning the next leg down.
If you went short at the close, chances are good that you are in for a bit of squeezing tomorrow morning. But this is a very short-term scalping indicator, and it only predicts the very near future.
I could tell you how this works, but then I’d have to kill you.
No squeezing in Asia,bulls getting toasted big time.Europe will soon show if bears will get squeezed tomorrow
US futes dropping,Europe futes must we weak,Nikki falling off a cliff
DAX futes getting hit hard,US could get very ugly tomorrow
Looks like a solid wall of purple at the open
Matt may pull a rabbit out of his hat as the futures have at this time made a stunning reversal
Scotty,
I hope you got some sleep last night.
Awesome indicator Matt. I can only imagine what it consists of like NH/NL, advances/declines, etc. I would have no clue as to how it is programmed.
Sleep? Who needs sleep,
spoos down 3.25
now spoos down 5.25
end of month, might be an intriguing day,
happy trading to all…
Mitch, i think Leafs first preseason game is 3 weeks tonight !!!
purple blocks back?
after,
Canes have a home date with the Panthers then as well.
GL.
VIX nearing a decision point:
http://i35.tinypic.com/2m7zv2q.jpg
Ranger Matt,
To have ideas is on thing but to code them is oh so sweet.
UI benefits:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703959704575454431457720188.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
The contributing professor starts the debate by leaving a huge chasm of what’s not said. Which is fine as I love what challenges do for me.
Full Daily Stohastics have put in a double bottom,same as Feb,rallys start when STO are at 20 and declines start when STO are at 80,we are under 20,so we shall see
SCOTTY
stochastics is an oscillator…its not meant to be used during a trend.. ADX shows we are in a trending environment now…sto could stay below 20 for days or weeks if the market continues trending down…dont hang your hat on stoch here..it could be painful….note …when both lines stay below 20 ,,,,,stoch are LOCKED IN…meaning the trend is getting stronger
scotty
pull up a two month daily chart of UNG with stochastics…UNG is trending down and stoch are locked in under 20
10-4 phil
sold TLT 108.23
bought SCHX
G
presidential address tonite….you dont really think hes going to let it go down today do you???
p
I was thinking the same thing. Not only that, but elections in Nov could drive the market up.
I can’t remember where I saw it but this Friday is supposed to be a big up day prior to a holiday Monday.
Didn’t take long to fill the intraday gap. SPY could be working a bottom if it begins consolidating.
G
i am hoping for a rip your face off stock rally so it will knock bonds back down and i can rebuy cheaper
G
my face has been ripped off!!!,……..lol
Phil we rally hard and you can rip my face off
At 9:46, I bought some SPY September 105 call options for $2.09 each.
At 9:51, I sold them for $2.25 each.
After commissions, I cleared a 7.65% profit.
So, that’s an example of one of my “cloud” trades. Of course, that option is now at $2.50, but the cloud only tells me that the odds of a reversal are good. It doesn’t say how strong it will be or how long it will last. So, like George says, I get the honey and get away from the bees.
Note: I chose that option because it was the “front month” and “at the money” option, which means that it was the most volatile at that moment.
sold 1/2 SCHX
G
if i were a betting man …
prez is going to ride this horse hard today and put her away wet…………..
G
downtrend line @ SPY 106.30……..thats my sell target today
Matt you rock,when you put that out last night the futes were plunging, the nikk was getting killedi and Euro futes were down 1+%,gutsy post and you nailed it,kudos to you
for spelling,ole man working graveyard
Matt, Nice! Any type of odds forecaster is great.
Crap should have said sorry for spelling errors,I am gone,wake me up at SnP 1060
G
still think one more push up at least is needed for zig zag
we had better overlap 1050.6 in a hurry or this could unravel fast
p
I see your SPY $107. Note the consolidation on this SPY daily chart.
http://i38.tinypic.com/9aydyp.jpg
Yeah, SPY hit its 5min 36MA and backed off. The 5min MACD is still positive so the next cycle of the 1min stochastic and MACD will be the buy point – if there is going to be one.
bonds weakening….should have more stock rally
ok…overlap..new highs ahead
breakout should get us to 1057….then hasta la vista
going to sell into this next push up
G
guess where SPX 15 min 36sma is………………………..
p
I have it a little over $109.
G
no….thats the daily
‘Twas round 1057 me thinks.
5 min bb pinching ….get ready for big move
Mitch………..YES
DOW has a clear breakout
target 10100
DOW 10100 = .618 retrace of last wave
i want to take profits on longs and reverse to short there
I see it now p.
http://i33.tinypic.com/2im8ac0.jpg
tks
SPY nearing that 15min 36MA.
If yesterday to today’s lows was a LD, and today’s bounce a subwave 2, then we could be looking for 1015-1016 for a 1.618 expansion. Then a subwave 4 bounce around, then subwave 5 to pierce the 1010 lows.
A morning poem: I call it “Jack the Market”
Jack was nimble
Jack was quick
Jack spit all over my candlestick
POMO day tomorrow… something to keep in mind.
JG,
I’m still no over what Jack “the ripper” did to me Friday.
Mitch, sorry to hear that.
No worries, I was out foxed. I can respect that. I wouldn’t want it if it was easy.
breakout failed
took profits on longs
now in SDS from 35.21
G
my 15 min SPY chart shows a perfect touch of 36sma at 106 top
Looks like 1055 to 1049 was an X wave and now we go higher. Maybe 1060 (give or take) for a right shoulder? Remember, low volume and POMO tomorrow.
p
I got the same thing. I’m aware too that the 15min is still in an uptrend with a positive MACD 15min.
See if 1049.33 breaks here or not.
R2K at HOD
p
Up against 15min 36MA again. Tally Ho if it breaks it.
G
we had some excitement till 10am….now …. zzzzzzzzzzzz
Ha, Lunch time for the Street.
Nice indicator, I’d like to know what its made of .. but do prefer to stay alive.
G
15min 36sma held tough
that spike thru it almost had me abandoning my SDS
G
theres a tiny uptrend line @ 104.57…..going to sell some SDS there
p
THat was a close one for sure.
G,
This kind of activity HAS to be flux related
Mitch,
Must be flux. I was anticipating an up day from the PPT.
George, I was just thinking that, havent seen too many eod rallies lately
Wow, does the Fed/POMO have their fingerprints all over this market today, or what? Thay are fooling no one….buyer beware and heaven help any retail investors still “hoping for change.”
G
another hit of 15 min 36sma!
I count THREE decent sized GAPS on a 5-minute chart today alone….adn the gap from last Friday really roasted my nuts…but c’mon…this isn’t normal market behavior.
G sold 2/3 of my SDS @35.68….never did make it to the trendline
2th
ya gotta love the swings!
G
GREAT trading again today !!……………hasta
Nah Phil, I dn’t like the swings ’cause I’m one of the hard workers in the world that can’t watch a computer all day….just have to bet on the direction adn go with it….that is what roated my buns last Friday…the gap caused my profit taking trade to NOT trigger.
Glad the full timers are able to make coin….
Yes, nice day.