Comments for Matt Trivisonno's Blog http://www.trivisonno.com The S&P 500 Will Take Out the March Low Soon Fri, 04 Jul 2008 18:17:53 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 Comment on Who Wants to Go Long in Front of the Jobs Report? by admin http://www.trivisonno.com/who-wants-to-go-long-in-front-of-the-jobs-report#comment-1602 admin Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:28:16 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=198#comment-1602 Small Cap Slingshot, I do the Vulcan Mind Meld with the Market Beast every day. I always know what it is thinking. Trade against me and you will be crushed. Matt Small Cap Slingshot,

I do the Vulcan Mind Meld with the Market Beast every day. I always know what it is thinking. Trade against me and you will be crushed.

Matt

]]> Comment on Cramer Orders Masses to Sell by admin http://www.trivisonno.com/cramer-orders-masses-to-sell#comment-1601 admin Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:25:20 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=204#comment-1601 Hi Tony G, If you want to go long on the BLS data, save yourself the commissions and just send me your money. ;-) Glad you like the blog. Matt Hi Tony G,

If you want to go long on the BLS data, save yourself the commissions and just send me your money. ;-)

Glad you like the blog.

Matt

]]> Comment on Cramer Orders Masses to Sell by Tony G http://www.trivisonno.com/cramer-orders-masses-to-sell#comment-1600 Tony G Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:13:31 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=204#comment-1600 Matt, i am rather surprised at how strong the BLS NFP figures have been. i think we could rally next week as people make claims that the economy will be ok b/c the jobs data is pretty resilient. however, this assumes oil doesn't gap higher during the week and people don't panic over the wknd. holidays such as july 4 bring people together and they discuss how good or bad things are. i have a feeling that most of the discussions will be along the lines of how much it cost to fill the tank, how much food prices increased, where am i cutting back to save money, how much has the house depreciated, etc. I think we are getting very close to that capitulation point where Joe Blow pulls his money out of equities and into cash to save what he has left. Great blogsite btw! Matt, i am rather surprised at how strong the BLS NFP figures have been. i think we could rally next week as people make claims that the economy will be ok b/c the jobs data is pretty resilient. however, this assumes oil doesn’t gap higher during the week and people don’t panic over the wknd. holidays such as july 4 bring people together and they discuss how good or bad things are. i have a feeling that most of the discussions will be along the lines of how much it cost to fill the tank, how much food prices increased, where am i cutting back to save money, how much has the house depreciated, etc. I think we are getting very close to that capitulation point where Joe Blow pulls his money out of equities and into cash to save what he has left.

Great blogsite btw!

]]> Comment on Free-Fire Zone by admin http://www.trivisonno.com/free-fire-zone#comment-1599 admin Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:12:17 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=203#comment-1599 CDAfuture, I still don't understand your chart. Maybe you could provide some commentary. I think the Qs will test, and fail at, the March low just like everything else. And just like the IWM, they will do some quick catch-up work on the downside. Matt CDAfuture,

I still don’t understand your chart. Maybe you could provide some commentary.

I think the Qs will test, and fail at, the March low just like everything else. And just like the IWM, they will do some quick catch-up work on the downside.

Matt

]]> Comment on Cramer Orders Masses to Sell by admin http://www.trivisonno.com/cramer-orders-masses-to-sell#comment-1598 admin Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:04:13 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=204#comment-1598 Hi visuall, The market moved ahead of the jobs release due to a widely circulated whisper number over 100k. So, the jolt came Wednesday afternoon rather than Thursday morning. Oil also moved up sharply once again just as it did with the June jobs report. The job losses are far worse than anybody is thinking, and are what is really crushing the market. I'm waiting for the SPX to close below the March intra-day low. It won't be long. We haven't had a lot of pre-announcements, but I think the theme for earnings will be "Not too bad, but terrible guidance." The market will not like that. Matt Hi visuall,

The market moved ahead of the jobs release due to a widely circulated whisper number over 100k. So, the jolt came Wednesday afternoon rather than Thursday morning. Oil also moved up sharply once again just as it did with the June jobs report. The job losses are far worse than anybody is thinking, and are what is really crushing the market.

I’m waiting for the SPX to close below the March intra-day low. It won’t be long.

We haven’t had a lot of pre-announcements, but I think the theme for earnings will be “Not too bad, but terrible guidance.” The market will not like that.

Matt

]]> Comment on Cramer Orders Masses to Sell by admin http://www.trivisonno.com/cramer-orders-masses-to-sell#comment-1597 admin Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:57:37 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=204#comment-1597 Hi Larry, All of my ideas about the withholding data are posted on that page. The situation is <i>very</i> bad. Matt Hi Larry,

All of my ideas about the withholding data are posted on that page. The situation is very bad.

Matt

]]> Comment on Cramer Orders Masses to Sell by admin http://www.trivisonno.com/cramer-orders-masses-to-sell#comment-1596 admin Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:54:02 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=204#comment-1596 Crimson Ghost, A couple of weeks ago, I wrote "stick a fork in the XLE". The big institutions are definitely unloading stock there, just like everywhere else. But there has been no effect on the price of oil. Oil is being driven more by the jobs numbers than anything else right now. Iran is less important than you think it is. I still think oil will be the very last thing to crack. Oil will crack the global economy, the stock market will crash, and then oil will follow it down. Waiting for a crack in oil to save the market is the worst investment strategy that I can think of. Matt Crimson Ghost,

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote “stick a fork in the XLE”. The big institutions are definitely unloading stock there, just like everywhere else. But there has been no effect on the price of oil. Oil is being driven more by the jobs numbers than anything else right now. Iran is less important than you think it is. I still think oil will be the very last thing to crack. Oil will crack the global economy, the stock market will crash, and then oil will follow it down. Waiting for a crack in oil to save the market is the worst investment strategy that I can think of.

Matt

]]> Comment on Who Wants to Go Long in Front of the Jobs Report? by Small Cap Slingshot http://www.trivisonno.com/who-wants-to-go-long-in-front-of-the-jobs-report#comment-1595 Small Cap Slingshot Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:50:27 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=198#comment-1595 Matt, Should have been more clear. I converted all my gains from my QQQQ option puts into cash. I still had a sizeable chunk of my portfolio in individual stocks using option puts. "Your crystal ball has a perfect 0-2 record so far. Care to try again for Monday?" - I'm fine. My market timing isn't always perfect, but I can live with that. Sometimes I nail it perfectly and other times I am off by several days. I thought there was going to be some more follow through on Wednesday and it didn't happen. That's ok. "...trading against me is definitely not a good idea." - Wow. You are getting awfully big for your britches. You get a couple calls right and you think you are a superstar. Keep it up and Mr. Market has a nice spoonful of humility with your name on it. Matt,

Should have been more clear. I converted all my gains from my QQQQ option puts into cash. I still had a sizeable chunk of my portfolio in individual stocks using option puts.

“Your crystal ball has a perfect 0-2 record so far. Care to try again for Monday?” - I’m fine. My market timing isn’t always perfect, but I can live with that. Sometimes I nail it perfectly and other times I am off by several days. I thought there was going to be some more follow through on Wednesday and it didn’t happen. That’s ok.

“…trading against me is definitely not a good idea.” - Wow. You are getting awfully big for your britches. You get a couple calls right and you think you are a superstar. Keep it up and Mr. Market has a nice spoonful of humility with your name on it.

]]> Comment on Cramer Orders Masses to Sell by Crimson Ghost http://www.trivisonno.com/cramer-orders-masses-to-sell#comment-1593 Crimson Ghost Fri, 04 Jul 2008 14:08:20 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=204#comment-1593 Well the price of oil may be holding up but the XLE has turned down sharply. And the stocks often lead the commodity. Those betting on a confrontation with Iran and further sharp hikes in oil prices to crash the markets are going to lose that bet IMHO. Well the price of oil may be holding up but the XLE has turned down sharply. And the stocks often lead the commodity.

Those betting on a confrontation with Iran and further sharp hikes in oil prices to crash the markets are going to lose that bet IMHO.

]]> Comment on Cramer Orders Masses to Sell by visuall http://www.trivisonno.com/cramer-orders-masses-to-sell#comment-1589 visuall Fri, 04 Jul 2008 02:47:03 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=204#comment-1589 Matt - Guess you'll be changing the blog motto soon huh... We took SPX 1252.01 out today... Still think we may bounce up for a "few" days now... Alcoa starts earnings off next week...The weekly charts are not giving much up room though... Jobs number had no real affect today...We'll see... Have a nice 4th of July, visuall Matt - Guess you’ll be changing the blog motto soon huh… We took SPX 1252.01 out today… Still think we may bounce up for a “few” days now…

Alcoa starts earnings off next week…The weekly charts are not giving much up room though… Jobs number had no real affect today…We’ll see…

Have a nice 4th of July,
visuall

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