Stupid NYSE
For some foolish reason, the stock market is open all day today. The bond market will close an hour early at 2pm.
What? No Bailout?
The world’s third largest chemical company is going bankrupt according to this Wall Street Journal story. Lots more of that coming in ’09 I expect…
and here I am thinking am holding stocks into the new year
HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
haha…I was wondering what you meant by that, K.
So does hangover trading start next Monday? I’m guessing Friday will have stupidly low volume just like today. Here’s hoping they can gun it up even higher just in time for earnings season…of course then we get Obama inauguration…It sure seems like we have set him up with several impossible tasks.
Here’s to hoping the glass is half full in 2009.
From the World Cup of ‘Behind the Curve’:
Analysts have just moved their oil price target for 2009 from 72 to 58 USD. (Reuters)
sentimentrader.com’s (subscription required) freakishly accurate Smart Money/Dumb Money index is flashing its second highest overbought signal of the year. It is not a short-term timing tool, but in the intermediate term, there is probably very little risk to being short here.
Matt, thanks a lot for this info.
Matt,
What is your view on GS at these levels ? Could yesterday’s breakout be a fake one ?
Thanks.
hey Matt,
you mentioned that you may take a short position today if the PPT could paint the tape green for a EOM window dressing. Does that still hold true today?
If so, what ETFs were you thinking?
SPX going to 918 doubl top on 60min?
Looks like the SPX has an ascending triangle on the 60min.
Charlie, make me an egg sandwich, I’m getting hungry. Pressing these keys wears a fellow out.
While your at it Charlie, fix me a ninny bottle.
Last day for the hedgies to lick their chops on this gravy train.
Charlie, you know I’m kidding. Actually, I admire your ability to do what you’re doing.
But I do luv egg sandwiches.
lol George…. eating a p & j while checking the mkts on my mobile. mkts getting pumped up. Qwonder when it will pop.
Charlie, don’t know when or if it will reverse today. SSO 1min heading for a double top, that could be it for a short correction if it doesn’t bust through.
Unless ICE starts going up, there may be a reversal soon.
Anyone getting hungry for a little SRS here? I am.
Jim;
It sure looks good. All the inverse will be nice when this move up reverses.
Fry one for me.
well I got fried for thinking we were done for this year. had SRS and SDS on close hahaha DAMN IT
This must be the “window dressing” Matt talks about.
ICE hasn’t bought into this rally yet for some reason.
K, hang on to that inverse, it ain’t over yet.
yeah George. but i hate how i thought the market was open. i guess Christmas is more important than the new year.
I’m also hungry for some DXO. Any thoughts on that?
Me too. But too early.
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/spx-3012.jpg hmmm
See, that’s what’s hard about trendlines. Draw that a couple of lows back and there is an ascending triangle.
Matt, I liked checking on the daily tax collections page. Any reason why that was abandoned?
tnx curt
It would be appropriate for the market to end in red on this last day of the year. It may not though, considering the strength right now.
SSO needs to get through the 5min double top.
Curt,
The page is right where its always been. Why do you think it is gone?
Matt
Charlie,
I will probably put on large SDS and QID positions at the end of the day in addition to shorting in the futures. The market setup is very similar to the end of November, so I’m hoping for a big whoosh down early in January just like we had on December 1st.
Matt
K,
It’s still 2008 in the USA!
Tomorrow, the first day of 2009, is the holiday.
Matt
got a little bit more SRS here. In accumulation mode. I hope I’m not being dumb here.
HAHAH i got SKREWED hard
Thanks Matt. I’m going to gas up the truck. I’ve been nibbling at these inverse bottoms with scalps and cores.
K, eat some soup, you’ll feel better. Get some from the Soup Nazi. Oh, wait, you are one and the same.
I got some cha-ching from BBT which looks to be about over unless it can work a miracle.
I’m getting conflicting data with ICE. I don’t trust what I’m seeing. It may be StockCharts, thy have been having some problems lately.
George,
Speaking of inverse, TWM and TZA might be leading. They have been rallying for an hour now.
Matt
George,
I have ICE at $81.00.
Matt
Looks like I jinxed TWM and TZA. Let’s see if they can make a double bottom.
You did, Matt:
TNX HOD +1.65.
that is HUGE surprise george
60min TBT is almost getting at a buy signal. last signal it had was november 16? at $60/share that was a sell signal.
it has gotten this close before so don’t make much of it yet
No, K, you are correct. Bonds are in a bubble. Now’s the time to start busting it.
Charlie, I’ve been snapping up more SRS, too. I don’t think it’s a stupid trade down here. Been hammered, and CRE this coming year will have problems. I may sell some the next few days, but keep some for a core holding, too—depends on the charts, naturally.
Matt, thanks for the sentimentrader update. Appreciate the information.
Happy New Year to everyone. Looking forward to an auspicious 2009 for us all!
am just wondering if this is a fakeout though. will let my indicator decide.
The TRINdicator for the NASDAQ is giving a sell signal. That’s the first one since December 9th which was the rally high for the Q’s. Traders have been selling NYSE stocks into this strength, so the TRIN there is not quite to overbought, but it is very close.
2009 goal. Become a Millionaire.
okok just kidding. but hey if bond bubble burst why not?
junglegirl,
Don’t confuse K by telling him “Happy New Year” until tomorrow!
Matt
srs has hone down in low volume these past 2 days so i’d expect a rebound once the real bad boys are back lol
TWM and TZA fighting back…
This MOAR could be the real deal if SDS can clear 15min MAs.
Matt,
“Z2K bug makes 30GB Zunes fail at 12AM, December 31st”
I’m not the only one. the glitch writers at microsoft also thought today was new years. haha.
This skeleton crew wants *out* to make some Y/E profit?
2009! Year of the Zune!
sentimentrader.com’s STEM-MR models for the SPX and NDX are flashing sell signals. This one is a short-term signal. I never go against the STEM-MR. It is the best short-term model that I know of. Even if the market can push higher from here, the odds are very good that it will come back down to 900 within a few days. Shorting at this level is as safe as it ever gets, though nothing is fool-proof of course.
AYAY Captain!
see intraday indicators correcting without price pulling back much which is near term bullish
hmmm, blow-off top?
Resistance for SSO is ~27.25.
let’s see if Q’s break back BELOW trading range (10 min charts) for a false BO
what do you make of the jobless claims today tho? they’re making headlines everywhere
UYG = Moooo, another cash cow.
jobless claims were less than expected as was build in crude
Right here may determine how the market ends. 36MA support on SSO and resistance to SDS 1min.
crude is up becuz the UN banned piracy
Matt, did you get a buck from ICE?
it looks like we all had the lower line wrong. it was just tested. possible shooting star on SPY 60 min. has not painted yet VIX RSI where it was at May top. bullishness and overbought off the charts. Wave five of this leg up now. neg divs all over the place. Wave (4) is over.
to see the line look at my SPY 60 min.
The market popped at 2pm when the bond market closed. It’s easier to paint the tape once the bond buys are gone.
Government offices were closed on Christmas last week, so workers had 20% less time to apply for unemployment. Stores were busy, so they probably didn’t lay off any workers. Also, the claims number bounces around a lot; that’s normal. So far, all the economic data indicates that the economy is still contracting.
and if it a shooting star, it is the only one on the 60 min since the Nov bottom and they are no laughing matter on the 60 min when painted
George,
I haven’t been doing any day trading lately, but will probably start again in ’09.
Matt
Does Father Time like green or red?
Matt, gotcha.
Wow, VIX has a 3 handle.
George,
When I said that I had ICE at $81 earlier, I was just telling you the price because you said that you were having trouble with StockCharts. I didn’t actually buy it.
Matt
The XLF is wrecking my descending triangle.
K,
GS broke above 50E earlier & came back & tested it
Not helping the SKF much either
SPY, QQQQ, and XLF are still well below their peaks from the 19th, but the IWM is right up there. So, the IWM will probably determine the fate of the market today.
Some brave souls here stepping in front of SRS, new 52 week low, could it be the hedgies piled into SRS and are now unwinding???
Still think SRS could be a huge winner in 2009, but from what price???
The market makes no sense right now – the optimism for the new year and a new administration must have sellers at bay because business conditions point down, down. down…..
Can’t wait to see if we have a hang-over, and a bad one, on FryDay…
Matt are you talking about XLF triangle. This is leg E. Leg E more often than not throws over the upper line. It has to get over leg C at 13.18 to invalidate the triangle.
David,
I’m talking about the XLF chart that I posted prior to this post.
Matt
Ok we are talking about the same thing
SDS is Number 1 on the WSJ’s buying-on-weakness chart, and SPY is on top of the selling-on-strength chart.
It looks like they will gun it into the close. When traders are making their New Year’s resolutions tomorrow, they want “Be Like Warren and Buy Cheap Stocks for the Long Run” to be number one on everybody’s list.
Randall, agree too much optimism. Rally is technical, IMHO, and very close to over. FryDay—loved it!
The IWM just took out its rally high, but SPY, QQQQ, and XLF are not confirming.
My bear suit is back from the cleaners. I will be doing some shorting as soon as I get my claws on.
I will keep a good deal of cash in reserve in case the New Year’s resolutions of the masses are bullish. That could give us a nice opening gap to fade on FryDay.
Hallelujah, volatility is back!
look at how they run suddenly after all the big talk
OK, I’m short at 900 in the futures, and with SDS and QID, and have added a few January $90 SPY puts (SWGML) to spice things up a bit.
Is it Santa, or could it be…. SATAN ? ? ? ?
Matt, I bought a hunk of SDS, QID at that last bottom.
Nicely done George. My SPY puts are already up 11%.
well no shooting star or anything like it. but it looks like the rally is over. even has a wedge at the end on the 1 min complete with throwover on leg 5. biggest volume bar all day on 60 min was a high wave candle.
a wedge on wave five is a termination point. My 15 min PPO gave a sell signal. broken PPO rally trendline followed by a neg div. this PPO has never failed since I began using it during wave (4).
Drano—so if the market at 666 is evil, would the market at 333 be only half-evil?
Matt, glad you donned the claws. Keep that suit on for a bit please, would you?
David, thanks for posting.
I went for some SDS and QID at the close. We shall see what happens, but given all the info (thanks so much, Matt) and the earnings to come soon, I don’t see how things can go much higher from here. Is there a New Year’s bailout hiding somewhere?
one more post: whilst on this rally the 60 min RSI gave the highest overbought reading for wave (4). the histogram on the 60 min was the lowest group since the bottom.