On Wednesday morning, I mentioned that the XME looked like it was making a bear flag that might target its gap from September 9th down at 42.38. Well, it dove down there, but held at the top of the gap, which is about 43.50. That level was also the high of the June 11th peak, so I reckon that’s why it held there. Nevertheless, the gap is just asking to be filled.
SPY is also eying its September 8th gap at 102.07. Gaps like these are targets that the market usually can’t resist. It wouldn’t be all that unusual for the XME to bounce off the top of its gap, which it is trying to do right now, but I would be surprised if SPY bounced before at least tagging its gap within the next couple of trading days.
We started September with a big plunge, made a “slow rounding turn” pattern, and then rocketed up right through the September 4th jobs report. Can the market pull off the same stunt here in Crashtober? Film at 11.
K has been doing some black magic with Fibonacci numbers lately. So, in case you missed it, make sure to take a look at my Black Magic post from January.
Did anyone MArk my words? If we had -1 to -5 close? I hope am wrong this time or else is out with the bears for monday
Same here… y’all relapse a little.
K,
Sometimes a hammer turns out to be the beginning of a bear flag. Don’t know about this one, but it is a possibility to think about.
Matt
JG,
I like to verify SPX patterns with the NDX, which usually leads the SPX. So today, as the SPX was making a bullish ascending triangle, the NDX was making a neutral symmetrical triangle. That was a hint that the SPX’s triangle might not be as bullish as it looked.
Matt
I hope you are right matt. Ill be a human being if am wrong about this.
Larry , when did you go 40short ? i missed the plane for now for adding shorts as i was thinking ndx 1740/50 and just couldn’t swing the bat when it got there.
spy oct 99 puts, sold for small profit today, may reenter some puts soon/later
VXX, still holding, taking a bath but the bathwater level is down a bit…
Looks like Larry went short very near to the top:
http://www.trivisonno.com/tuesdays-trading-92909/comment-page-1#comment-46965
Good One Larry!!!
a funny but sad fox screenshot
http://imgur.com/Prk56.jpg
Paula
Looking at my weekly SPY chart tells me you might have nailed it. PSAR has fired, and all indicators are down. Next week will tell the story.
String
Yow! Number of Banks Not Making TARP Payments Skyrockets!
http://www.businessinsider.com/number-of-banks-who-didnt-repat-tarp-increases-2009-10
97th bank fails. Shall we say 99 is reached this weekend? or will it be straight up 101 next weekend?
Have a good weekend! I’ll try to stop the link bombardment
K,
Don’t you dare stop with the links. They are good information. Besides, they cover things I wouldn’t think to look at and if we all contribute something we’ll be well informed.
Hey, we could have our own MNN or MNBC.
hahaha George #98 !!! damn will i be close this time but just not on point at 99 for this weekend?
just thought this graphic is also worthy of a post
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-mother-of-all-jobless-recoveries/
The Unofficial Problem Bank List increased by a net four institutions during the week to 463. Aggregate assets increased by $1.5 billion to $298.6 billion
Icelandic Police Raid KPMG and Price Waterhouse in Banking Frauds
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/10/icelandic-police-raid-kpmg-and-price.html
K:
KPMG is no small fry accounting firm. The po/po better have a helluva accounting division because that firm is no joke – though I think each unit is separate from the mothership.
K:
ok they’re raiding in an effort to obtain evidence concerning the accounting firm’s bank clients.
That unemployment chart really puts it into perspective.
KPMG does a lot of auditing, especially banks.
George,
that’s on top of some others all in all ~150 sources. and i post 4-5 links a day? I am really digging for the best news. 
I have 61 economic blogs that I get my sources from
Just finished watching Rocky I time for bed
K,
You are the stock market Rocky. Get some rest champ.
K is a good Albanian communist, believing in Marx’s dictum quality originates from quantity. Well done.
Have sent the Icelandic stuff to my friends at the wrong doers. Caught again. Interesting about Iceland is that there are indication of massive criminal wrongdoing. These signs have been noticed by quite a few but most decided to profit or to step aside. Have asked my friends why the German landesbanken they audit had some billions of losses up there
The Jester is still smiling, though he is sweating a bit as he did the announced down trick but dropped one ball and his juggling has lost the symmetry. He caught the other balls just before he’d have fumbled them all. Let’s assume against all odds that his efforts will end at new highs – and be relieved he has not much time left to finish his impostering…
U.S. Unemployment Now Lasts Longer Than Benefits: Chart of Day
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ajY2EJWqg3ZE
i think we might have a bull flag forming unless we can get below 1010
$COMPQ though breached the trend line that went back to march! WOW
String,
When you get a chance go to…
…timingpointprojector.com…
At times this indicator calls the turn to the day…
but it should only be used with other tools.
The SPX has a natural target of 990. Will it
go there over the next few weeks??? I don’t
know.
I’m off to run some errands for Mother. I Hope
you have a great weekend and that the back
feels better. Take care. Enjoy.
K,
Good article on unemployment. That’s the first time it “pays” to be in a high unemployment state.
Hey, that timingpoint chart is cool. If it’s accurate, we need to buy the dips, then go all-in inverse when that top is hit.
The thing is, I tend to agree that there is more to the upside. That would be known after the next weekly MACD cycle and how it affects the monthly.
yeah I also believe there will be another upside that will destroy bears. then bulls will turn into the new bears.
but lets take it one day at a time
ISEE Index Analysis to S&P 500: Put/Call Ratio Excluding Market Makers
“The ISE Sentiment Index is a unique put/call value that only uses opening long customer transactions to calculate bullish/bearish market direction.
http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2009/10/isee-index-analysis-putcall-ratio.html
anybody know where i can apply for a technical analysis job? LOL.
Paula
Thanks for the link. The back is going further south on me. I had a really bad night. I got the xray report from the Doc today. I was going to post it for Phil on monday. It’s all greek to me, but some sort of mild degeneration. Suggested an MRI to fully diagnose. Looks like my racquetball days are over.
String
Caught in a vise of shrinking revenue and stubbornly high public spending, the Caymans averted a fiscal crisis this week by securing a $60 million overseas loan.
read the rest here. tax heaven will need to raise taxes LOL
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/04/business/global/04cayman.html?_r=1&ref=business
*haven not heaven oops
K,
heaven was right!
is the postal office quasi government owned ? well figures
http://www.federaltimes.com/index.php?S=4265826
very cool
http://www.newsmap.jp/#/b/us/view/
I only selected business news but you can select all etc etc
Yerk, read China piece. Yes that growth rate in spending is not sustainable.
2. Alcoa is first out. Wednesday. Forecast earnings -8 cent/share (source unknown).
Another juggler
http://slopeofhope.com/2009/10/one-last-gasp.html
ooopsies!!!
World Bank could run out of money ‘within 12 months’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6255816/World-Bank-could-run-out-of-money-within-12-months.html
Now that would never happen in reality or would it?
Geithner: We’re Doing Everything We Can To Keep The Dollar Strong
http://www.businessinsider.com/geithner-were-doing-everything-we-can-to-keep-the-dollar-strong-2009-10
K,
Great Geithner story. The last two paragraphs say it all. Speaking of the dollar, Money and Markets has some articles on that subject. Here’s one: http://tinyurl.com/ycuednj
What’s interesting is that these same folks had another analyst several months ago that was pounding the table that the dollar was going to the moon.
It’s funny how easy it is to read all of this stuff and forget about predictions and analysis so quickly. It’s like, all they have to do is be right one time and you’re hooked. Most merely tell us what is going on at the current time and say it in such a manner that makes us think they had predicted it all along – I think that’s called propaganda.
You can’t bull and old bull.
Seasonal Flu Shots Double Risk of Getting Swine Flu, Says New Study
The ‘perplexing’ study has thrown influenza health plans into disarray, with Quebec, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Nova Scotia all suspending seasonal flu shots for anyone under 65 years of age.
ok this is probably fake but I like it
they just are trying to protect from people suing about side effects from the flu vaccine 
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/science/study-prompts-provinces-to-rethink-flu-p%3E%20lan/article1303330/
some sad news.
Nakagawa, Japan’s former finance minister, who resigned after drunk incident at G7, found dead (FT)
Mr Nakagawa, 56, was found by his wife lying face down on his bed and was pronounced dead by ambulance staff, Japanese media reported.
Roubini says stocks have risen “too much, too soon, too fast” (Bloomberg and RGE)
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/257773/thoughts_on_where_we_are
“Markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast,” Roubini said in an interview in Istanbul yesterday. “I see the risk of a correction, especially when the markets now realize that the recovery is not rapid and V-shaped, but more like U- shaped. That might be in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year.”
Here’s SPY weekly with Fibs. Notice price resting on the 38 level. (Note: this is using Silverlight 2.0 version. I’ll send another using Silverlight 3.0 version.)
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=fb79750a-6aed-414f-9d99-5e31e95be088
Here’s the SPY weekly chart with Silverlight 3.0:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d37e4cb4-ead6-463e-b002-aedc6541585f
Finally, here’s the same chart with the missing upper trendline – possible resistance and target for downturn:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=5bf9c870-7066-42ca-aeb5-dd2e881dd380