On Wednesday morning, I mentioned that the XME looked like it was making a bear flag that might target its gap from September 9th down at 42.38. Well, it dove down there, but held at the top of the gap, which is about 43.50. That level was also the high of the June 11th peak, so I reckon that’s why it held there. Nevertheless, the gap is just asking to be filled.
SPY is also eying its September 8th gap at 102.07. Gaps like these are targets that the market usually can’t resist. It wouldn’t be all that unusual for the XME to bounce off the top of its gap, which it is trying to do right now, but I would be surprised if SPY bounced before at least tagging its gap within the next couple of trading days.
We started September with a big plunge, made a “slow rounding turn” pattern, and then rocketed up right through the September 4th jobs report. Can the market pull off the same stunt here in Crashtober? Film at 11.
K has been doing some black magic with Fibonacci numbers lately. So, in case you missed it, make sure to take a look at my Black Magic post from January.
Latest Blog Post: A Week in Review: SPX 1035 Oct 1st Prediction Came True http://bit.ly/19g7yh
Night all
Matt, thank you for the update on the withholding taxes. “The data has, unfortunately, become all fuzzy and blurry.” I have yet to see a successful organization running on fuzzy and blurry data. The rough part of the road is still ahead.
Someone has to be the jester to entertain the audience: New highs within the next two weeks. And yes this retracement is part of the plan – but we should not implode for much longer
Matt: When you stopped the withholding charts I started doing them by using the Feds database, so I’m now tracking. I also started doing the same thing with FL sales tax that is available at http://edr.state.fl.us/data/salestax/taxdata.htm (knowing you’re in FL, thought you would be interested). Anyway, when you do the same sort of chart for the FL total sales tax receipts you get a chart that looks *exactly* like the Fed withholding–that is to say we have maximally dipped about the same percentage as withholding. Little spike up last month because of the double taxation of the clunker program, but basically the same.
String and K,
Thanks for the Comcast links.
String,
Mother has asked Julie and me to help some
friends recover their investment losses. After
Julie rests for a few days we plan to start that
project and will not post here on trading days.
If you have anything that you think we can
help you with, please ask it on the weekend
and we will do our best to answer your questions.
Hope your back feels better…take care of it…
…and keep your eye on the big picture.
NFP worse than expected -263K. Futures slumping some more….
Futes have now jumped off a cliff…
1016 is a 38.2% fib in futures.
1009 is a 78.6%
S1 pivot is at 1011.25.
so we gotta beat 1009-1016 in order to slump to the magic 1000
Whitney: Small Business Will Be Strangled By Credit Crunch Part II
http://www.businessinsider.com/whitney-the-credit-crunch-is-about-to-suffocate-small-businesses-2009-10
We’re entering the second stage, whereby credit lines for small business will be increasingly cut.
That’s why she’s my fave blondie with brains!!!!!
Paula
Thanks for all your input. I will start tracking the cycle and look forward to weekends. Tell Julie Hi!
String
Instead of merely filling its gap at 102.07, which I mentioned up at the top, SPY looks like it is fixin’ to “echo gap” right under it. The SPX should find some sort of support at 1014, which is the threshold of the Box of Bulls, but if it falls through, then we will be back in the Box of Miracles, and the 997 area becomes a possible target. That level was where the market bounced in it’s early September plunge that I also mentioned at the top.
So far during the rally, the market has never fallen out of a box once it has filled it. So, falling back into the Box of Miracles would set a new precedent.
so far the futures pivot is holding.
it had a low of 1012 and the S1 pivot is at 1011.25
I actually have butterflies.
SPY is now testing its 102.07 gap from beneath. So, that gap-support level is now resistance.
1025.52 is spx 61.8% retracement. it might hold for now. or it might not we shall see.
My leftovers in BBT last night are paying off nicely this AM.
Matt,
Are you saying that the “Boxes” will have validity during a downturn?
spx
s3 1016.98
s2 1010.48
s3 991.52
the crucial pivot is 1035.95
George – still follow ICE? Any thoughts? The 85 – 90 area has looked like solid support over the last couple months.
George,
So far, since the March low, the box levels have been important when the market has gone down as well as up.
Matt
Matt,
Great, I’ve been following them.
Thanks
locked over 100% profit in my SRS 9 Oct call.
am in no way turning bullish but you know options lose time value
what the fk just happened to the euro. am also going to liquidate my spx put
ok done this rally will not last but im not taking a chance. have been freaking myself out too much.
The Q’s filled their gap, and are now green along with the SMH. Might be a stay of execution for the bulls.
Someone is trying to dump the dollar.
factory orders worse than expected 0.0% they came in at -0.8%
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency opposite happened
Matt,
I’ve been in SMN wince sept 30th. and 12.56 is the middle of bollinger bands.
K,
You’re doing well, dude. Keep it up. This is a counter move by the underlying. To be expected with the fall from grace yesterday. Doesn’t matter about mfg, all technical and you have that under control.
Explain this one George
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
mitch…..see tlt repelled @ 100.30 resistance ….perfect
Randall,
Sorry, I’ve been fighting spikes all morning.
ICE has a daily rectangle for the past 2 1/2 months. I’ve drawn a line above and below it which it will break. I believe it will be to the upside because it had two days in July where it broke down from $110 to $85. If it moves up, it doesn’t have any resistance in that area.
Meanwhile, I mainly scalp it because of the great moves it has almost daily. I believe it is highly traded by scalpers.
GEORGE….. EURO and GOLD crash ahead…….WATCH island reversal in dollar to trap all dollar BEARS
BUYING UUP NOW at 22.81
Larry,
SHEZAM, and I’m not trading FOREX, why?
I can’t explain that move. Maybe K could.
Showing me charts like that is like waving a bag of Lance peanuts in front of me… hard to resist.
GEORGE….look at daily volume last week in UUP…..either its CAPITULATION or ACCUMULATION but its HUGE…..turn coming
Wow talk about perfect exit!
Stringm,
Spikes are back after several weeks of rest. It must have something to do with volatility.
BTW, I’m going to try your flounder recipe this weekend.
Thanks George. Nobody can explain that move.
40 Short
Phil,
I’m watching UUP like a hawk ever since you pointed it out. I never look at volume and perhaps I should.
phil:
Trying to discern what’s going on. Have you ever seen a deer run in the woods? Sometimes you just see the tip of its white tail waving as it bounds off through the brush getting further and further away – leaving a poor sap like me to track like a blood hound. K has been the jump dog – I’m stalking or better a tracker in the pack. buuwuwuwuwuw!
George
Mine has been freezing up too. Kinda frustrating cuz I have been jumping back forth from XLB and SMN. Been get on one and off the the other. I think SD get hit with more volume than it can handle and locks up. Flounder is real good. We have a baking pan that is like a cookie sheet with a rack in it. Lets air get under the fish as well. Cook at 425 35 minutes turning the fish at the halfway mark.
String
String:
Can you show me a pic of that baking sheet with the rack at some point? Maybe a replica online? I may end up going striper/rock fishing soon but also will be on the spot and croaker as well next June.
Thanks
i want us to fall below 1025 on S&P. the recent rally off didnt seem convincing either
new spy position taken short. close stop loss around 103.3
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SsUbgN6UWJI/AAAAAAAACB4/dmeFzmfaHzM/s1600-h/spxnonlog.png
Mitch
Top left. I spray the rack with nonstick spray too. So as to not be too off topic. Stock symbol is WSM, and has been flying since July.
http://www.williams-sonoma.com/products/7348709/index.cfm?pkey=cbakeware&cm%5Fsrc=hero
String
risk is to DOWNSIDE till 1041.17 overlapped string http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SsVrzEl8LGI/AAAAAAAACGE/5Z-rmcpF8Kg/s1600-h/SPX60min2.png
STRING….if this is a 3rd wave down it CANNOT overlap the bottom of wave 1….ie 1041.17….re: your question yesterday
NDX overlapped yesterday ..now all 3 have confirmed upward acceleration is dead….still looking for test of top before its over
String: you there?
Phil
I have been keeping an eye on Kenny’s sight since you posted it. The wave thing is escaping me, but I will keep looking.
String
String?
SPY intraday gap filled but couldn’t hold. As soon as shorts figure out they don’t have to cover, it will move on down. Of course, covering is how they make profits so I can’t blame them too much.
Mitch
I be here. Posted your pan earlier.
String
unemployment update!! wow just wow!
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/10/click-here-for-my-interpretation-of.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-too-poor-yo-bury-its-dead-2009-10
ahahahaha wow!!!
http://www.businessinsider.com/john-carney-the-government-ran-out-of-money-yesterday-2009-10
am sorry guys/gals for the linking. just got to a computer and catching up
Phil
Do you know when the various Bond ETFs payout the yield? The TLT and TLH and SHY. I can’t seem to find a dividend or pay date. Do they pay monthly or quarterly?
String
String:
Execution seems to be key. I’ve stalked SYY up into a tree. Get your .22!
AAPl + 4.50!! wow haha george… get on it!
late afternoon bears will regain control.. SPX 1025.52 61.8% fib held. black magic still at work.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bls-discloses-it-has-overrepresented-payroll-data-824000-or-15
A part of today’s BLS announcement that has not received much attention is the BLS’ own disclosure that it “may” have lost an additional 824,000 jobs in LTM period ended March 2009, in addition to the already disclosed 4.8 million job losses.
Mitch
Interesting. Looks like it needs to turn around though. Dividend payment coming up too.
String
String:
(.22) caliber of course. Do Texans ‘Coon hunt?
MARK MY WORDS:
If we close -1 to -5 pts on SPX its the end of the correction. but if we’re up ~5 pts… monday is gonna be another slaughter of the bulls.
Mitch
There are those that do, I am not one of them. I only do birds.
String
string……TLT pays monthly…..ex date is variable but near end of month
K…..you are getting very excited and making many posts….i am calling the turn here………lol
Phil
I have some SHY and I noticed it and the treasury etfs opened lower yesterday then made it up. They must have gone ex Wed. Thanks
String
Phil,
no classes for the day.
am at home so
Stringm,
Try BigCharts for dividend dates and amounts. Get the interactive chart and on the left select “Upper Indicators” and within that select “Show All Events”.
BEARS TOO JOVIAL AGAIN http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/mole-with-2-hot-girls.jpg
BBT up $1.35+.
…just sayin’…
nice call George..
Haven’t read the board yet, so I apologize if this is duplicative:
possible ascending triangle off lows today, waves, and Fib retracement (32 Fib of 1063-1019 fall) all point to 1036-1040 area.
Happy weekend folks.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#5years
Larry,
So the “copper top” batteries the market has been juicing on have now run out of power? Uh oh.
George
That’s just too cool. Thanks.
String
Jungle, yes it’s starting to look tired.
See you folks Monday. Take care of that full moon.
40 short
I don’t like ascending triangles when the trend leading into them is down. This may morph. By EWT, if we get w3 at 1.618 of w1, we’d hit ~ 1006.5.
In the post above, those are two separate thoughts. The first is how high do we go before the next shoot down (assuming we get one). The second is a target for the end of w3 down.
Larry, have a great one! Always like reading how long/short you are. Glad you keep us informed.
Paula,
Nice of you to help others with their accounts. Sorry you won’t be posting intraday; you are a valued member of our community. I will look forward to your weekend posts. Good luck.
I want us closing positive for the day because the hammer/doji we have so dar today is a scary one which would put us to 1090 by options ex.
I will strongly reconsider my positions if i’m near the comp at 3:55
Paula, you will be missed. Best of luck.
103.18-103.41 is where i want it to close so we can set up Monday’s new crash
Paula:
If only my friends were as lucky as yours! I have benefitted from my exposure to you.
junglegirl,
Are you seeing down-moving patterns or counts?
paula,
We’ll miss ya. Very nice of you to help others out. I know they will be thankful.
OOOOk, will SPY do a Humpty-Dumbty on the 15min or will it continue its slow climb out of the abyss?
I Need a positive close george, Make it happen! (even though i still am short)
George,
Yes.
Another possibility is that the rise off the low this morning was an A wave, the triangle a B wave, and the C wave could take us up to the projected areas listed above. In other words, we cannot just assume the rise this morning to just after 10:30 was definitely the A leg of the triangle.
On the other hand, w4s can be shallow and longish. Have to wait and see which way it breaks.
this is NOT GOOD
we either crash further or gotta finish green or bears are toast
Thanks Junglegirl. I get lost in those counts but learning.
Right now the VIX sits at 28.44 and the weekly 20MA is at 26.49. Want to see it close over the 20, and it looks like it just might do that.
George, no worries… I get lost, too!
K:
Bring us home for the week!
Am mad at how we will close and sad that am not home to adjust positions!
K,
You need an app on your phone that lets you access your home computer. They have them for iPhone.
Have a good weekend everyone!!!!
String
You too String!