NDX futures are testing their rally high on Microsoft’s earnings “beat”. But there is no growth at Microsoft. Year-over-year, both revenue and earnings were down double-digits.
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The analysts got this one way wrong, and the return to growth will have to wait at least one more quarter in the UK. Expectations were for slight growth, but the British economy actually shrank .4% in Q3.
GREENSHOOTS!!!
Good call Phil on the buy of TBT below $45. Pushing up near $47 again! What happens when the Fed’s liquidity hits the market next week? Always seems to push rates lower.
Matt, Q’s are really close to that $43.80 high! It’ll be close.
2thfixr,
Yes, very close. The Q’s are sagging a bit now, but still holding their opening gap. SPY filled its gap, and IYT is down big on a gap, so we have a mixed picture so far. Though it does seem that the bulls should be disheartened by MSFT’s failure to gap the Q’s over the high.
Matt
NDX breadth is -33. This is the same way the market reacted to Apple’s earnings.
I’m looking to swing trade QID near the Q’s high with a very tight stop. I’ve some BIDU ideas for next week as well.
The 1-min QQQQ looks like it will cycle up to the peak again within a few minutes. That is when I’ll look at the QID.
already got my teeth into QQQQ puts when it was at 43.60
nice pick up K!
here comes the Q’s push back to test the top…you can pick up more K
ok 2thfixr let’s compare SPX pivots
Legend: mine (yours)
R3 1126.97 (1121.55)
R2 1111.09 (1108.38)
R1 1106.07 (1100.65)
Pivot 1090.19 (1087.48)
S1 1085.17 (1079.75)
S2 1069.29 (1066.58)
S3 1064.27 (1058.85)
yours is based upon futures, mine is from yesterday’s day session.
nop mine is based upon same as yours with a few movements. if it was futures i would have told you last night. it’s just that TOS doesnt let me update for next day unless is futures.
will we see a dow -777 today George?
for those that are wondering. existing home sales came better than expected. if they were worse there would have been greenshoots. they arent so DOWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
DOW -777 is in our future sez my crystal monitor.
K,
I’d actually like to see +777 THEN -777. Would that be nice, or what?
my monitor is LCD
i envy you george.
I hope to live long enough to see the type of action we saw last year.
K,
I’ll send you one of these crystal monitors. They tell you what’s going to happen next on the charts!
SPY trying to use 15min 36MA to bounce higher. Will take some work to turn that timeframe’s sto and MACD around.
BBT sitting at good support on the 1,5,15min MAs.
108.91 is SPY hourly support. if we close a few hours below it then…
JG is SGA ready or were you the one that turned it on this morning?
1-min cup w handle and MACD cross just completed.
on QID (sorry)
semi’s and tranny’s getting hammered
if i were to guess extra bearish today is 1067 on SPX.
1079 if i were neutral.
ad if i were bullish 1105
If BBT would have kept its nice dividend it would be in the $40′s right now.
SPY marking time to let the 15min cycle then try another move up.
not sure when i will double my SDS
anybody uses this index? well SuperK just gave a sell warning
http://www.google.com/finance?rlz=1C1GGLS_enUS329US329
Hastsa
I meant this sorry
http://www.google.com/finance?q=xmi
The Q’s are hovering a couple of cents above their opening gap. If they fill that gap, bad things can happen. If not, the bulls get a stay of execution.
I realize XMI is rarely used because it only has 20 stocks
(http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^XMI)
but yeah I see it as a major indicator when the real big guys are going one way
QQQQ gap filled. Note to bulls: Run! Run!
The NASDAQ TICK is very, very oversold. Normally, I would be expecting some sort of bounce from the Q’s. OTOH, if they can’t bounce during a tick-barf, then that is a sign of a very strong downtrend.
MSFT just announced lower guidance….that was the sudden drop in Q’s
up 30% on the QQQ puts but won’t celebrate yet.
ok K hit that x-tra bearish call(1067) into the close and plunge Monday
hey Matt,
just an early heads up on SMN this time. just got a buy warning. wont be fully confirmed till after 1pm but if it holds direction consider it done
Thanks K. Nice Q-put trade.
The reason why that QQQQ gap was critical is because if at least one sector stays strong, the big dogs might merely be indulging in some sector rotation. But if all sectors go red, then that is a potential sign of panic taking hold.
tick has hit oversold and its going for a doubledip.
Drama: The NDX is holding above its old September 23 intra-day high of 1754.54.
So, the bulls have something to cling to.
well remember what i said last night. TED spread up 12% in the past 2 days.
so panic is taking hold. we just need another day or 2 with 5+% gains on ted spread and i’m more than doubling my shorts. it has never crossed MA’s since october. tried in march and failed and rally began.
now is has 2 MA’s as support and 1 as resistance. to me thats 2vs1 so the winner will be decided soon
futures 1079.50 S1 got reached. (1080.5 actual low for futures so far but close enough)
trend is still down so 1079.50 will be a sight to watch. then the psychological 1070 and then comes 1063
is K looking for 20 points? perhaps
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/do-it-yourself-high-frequency-trading
This is starting to look like a trend day: down all day with only minimal retracements.
Dang! With all the info you folks put out, I can trade remote control. Amazing how much that info helps. Like having a mentor. Keep it up!
SMH has made a 9/36/15 cross-down. Not good. DIA and IWM may be next in line.
$SPX low so far is 1079.68 at 11:22 am
IYT down 3%,SMH2%,R2 1.5% market breaking down??
2th:
Maybe you can consider an UYG paper trade on that ih/s presenting itself on the daily. If it works out well I’d like your referral to the best jawbreaker in the States.
Bouncing a bit here; working off the oversold TICK condition.
Mitch, already own UYG! I purchased 2000 shares at $2 a share and sold 1000 shares at $4.88 a few months ago. I still have 1000 shares looking for a LONG TERM investment target of $20 (return to normal). HA!
Matt, I’m looking for the end of the bounce to add on to my QID.
While I wait, I wanted to tell everyone (George) that Daneric’s EWT chart of BIDU has some interesting comments embedded in it. I almost want to cancel my Tuesday AM patients so I can trade this earnings beat/price drop back to support that he is pointed out. I’ll try to get a conditional order set up this weekend. They report Monday ATC, so Tuesday AM is their spike.
LOL
At about 10:50 ET this morning, CNBC and and WSJ’s Digits Blog reported that Microsoft had lowered guidance on its conference call. The stock immediately tanked.
What Microsoft actually lowered was OPERATING EXPENSE guidance. In other words, the company said it would spend less than it previously thought. This is good news, not bad, so all else being equal, it’s good for the stock.
About 10 minutes after reporting a guidance cut, CNBC came back and said the lowered guidance referred to costs.
btw here’s how we’ll view the new markets soon in 3D!!
http://www.techchee.com/2009/10/23/acer-aspire-5738dg-worlds-first-3d-notebook/
instead of taking $40+ in eur/usd i got out with $2
wohooo NOT
at least it was a profit on a small lot size. congrats on that.
K, did you take profits in your Q puts from this AM?
heh went in short again. oops. time for a break this is acting on impulse action. take care of the market fellas for about 1hr or so
negative 2thfixr.
am still up 15% though and it’s a 43 nov put.
K Says:
October 23rd, 2009 at 11:08 am
futures 1079.50 S1 got reached. (1080.5 actual low for futures so far but close enough)
trend is still down so 1079.50 will be a sight to watch.
——-
well we certainly fell below it but closed last hour at 1079.75. meaning its above.
the trend seems to be slowly changing upwards…but futures need to hold 1079.50 (they’re at 1080.25 as i type this
2thfixr,
Do you have a link for the Daneric EWT chart of BIDU? I googled it and several of those links didn’t work.
Thanks
AAPL maintaining its above $200 status. Makes me happy.
George, this is what I have in my favorite and takes me there. If it doesn’t work, please let me know!!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3271025&cmd=shows157456554&disp=O
It is on page 5, right below AAPL’s chart that you love….
2thfixr,
Got it… Thanks!
This is a pretty strong retracement, so I’m guessing that this won’t be a downtrend day. Let’s see how the market holds up once it doesn’t have an oversold TICK to lean on.
yah yah i know… he’s done now can only be right once but…
Roubini: A Big Crash Is Coming, But I Don’t Believe In Gold
5 in QID MACD is about to cross and indicates more downside.
haha now i love the oversold tick
this is how it looks on the hourly
http://www.clintsamples.com/images/bolt.jpg
The TICK hit its high for the day at 12:47, and the market flopped right over. So, things are still looking weakish.
look at the hourly Matt,
(ok as i speak it turned up a bit and doesnt look funny anymore)
its funny..
nice
blah i give up. my snickers mini bars are done so no more K to hold market down for now
SPY 15min chart I’m watching. Triangle?
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=3885965a-b46c-4cd9-876b-a0131bea9d49
The bulls desperately need to push SPY back up by the end of the day to prevent it from printing a dreaded Three-Amigas pattern. Example here:
http://www.trivisonno.com/three-amigas-stalk-ndx
The market plunged after that one.
George,
Nice triangle. Now, if it works out EWT-style, we will get a fourth wave up to the top line, and than a fifth wave down and out.
Matt
George, that’s some big “cloud cover” on that 15 min chart with the last candle.
However, on that chart, I see a MACD ready to turn up and we are in the low end of the triangle. A push up to end the day back up to 1090?
Matt,
that link brought back memories
Gotcha, I’ll be playing it. Tks.
SRS did a 9/36/15, playing it.. will see if it holds.
The Q’s are at the bottom of their triangle right now as well! Same call Matt? Up to the top and then back down and out?
here’s the tick hourly lightning bolt.
http://i37.tinypic.com/1onhht.png
2thfixr,
I’m thinking either of those lines will be a break. I’m still waiting on the capitulation to the upside – if there ever is one.
According to that chart, we have a nice move to the upide real soon if it plays out.
That would put a buy in the QID around $21.40 (bottom of the inverse triangle). I’ll add to my 500 share position QID there.
I’m going to play the upside with a QLD and/or SSO scalp.
i will double my SDS position monday.
added initial positions on SMN and SRS earlier.
Disclosure: I got in on the SRS 9/36/15 on the 1min Tres Amigos, so I have lots of slack.
2thfixr,
We need Phil or JG for an EWT call. I only know the rudiments.
Matt
K,
The NASDAQ Tick is even worse.
Matt
breaking BELOW the triangle now—NDX below 1754.54
hmm got a sell on dig and buy on dug
anyone care to help?
-1194 on the tick. wow. amazing
U-U-U-G-A-A-A-L-Y.
I’m not sure my chart was symmetrical so I moved the line to the bottom of the next candle after it broke down.
The QID is stuck at 21.99 and 22.00 Must have hit some profit stops!
2thfixr wouldnt you take profits if you were a daytrader? lol
Big volume on the 5-minute chart, but SPY couldn’t print a hammer.
Matt, any way you can check when the last time we had tick under -1100? tos only lets me go back 2 days on the minute chart