Take That!
On Monday night, I wrote: “Perhaps the market wants to range between 1085 and 1111 for a while.” And since then, the futures have ranged between 1082.75 and 1111.25. How about that? (Note: I had to type this fast because the futes are threatening to blow out the bottom of my range.) Also, while everybody was waiting for the SPX to hit the 50% retracement of the bear market at 1121, it was the 1111.82 level of the Box of Beer that capped this leg of the rally. And back here, I lectured the “Fast Money” Traders who proclaimed that they “didn’t get” why T-Bill yields went negative. Maybe they get it now that Dubai has blown up, and Vietnam has a currency crisis (thanks for the link, Larry). And did you hear anybody on Fast Money calling SKF a keeper like George did here? Hah! Take that Fast Money!
Matt Trivisonno's Blog
It's the Sovereignty Stupid!
take this Greece down 7%
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greece-plunges-stock-market-down-7-cds-20-wider-212
K,
-7%? That’s gotta sting. AEP did a column on Greece a few days ago.
Matt
is it any wonder why they elected a socialist party while albania elected a democratic one? (even though socialists are still in denial 5 months later)
dubai, greece. hmm next is US
after Says:
November 26th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
“George do you think there might be a stampede ?”
after,
I don’t know but with the current administration’s mentality of market stability they may try something if they think the market is going to tank.
Maybe this is the catalyst for the market’s next move. Or it could be a healthy pull-back before heading higher.
Either way, the handbrake is held by the Fed to pull if needed.
On my handy, dandy iPhone App, all of Asia and Europe are red. It doesn’t have Greece. The highest red is S. Korea with -4.75%; China is -1.36%. I don’t know its accuracy so I would just say something is down rather than quote the amount.
The E-minis (/ES) and IWM futures (/TF) are plunging. Wednesday had the quiet feel of impending doom — the dollar fell, but the market only held steady, and the Russel2000 ended slightly down.
/TF at 559, suggesting all of November’s gains will be clawed back at the open.
The Nikkei is now below its July low; it is likely leading the way.
George, you may be right that the Fed can brake a continuing fall in the market by continuing its “quantitative easing”, but we’re basically at the point now where China is no longer comfortable with a lower dollar.
A round of fear will almost certainly just be tolerated, and even seen as appropriate; they’ve been saying publicly they’re concerned about creating a new asset bubble.
Given the knowledge that banks’ losses are still hidden, and that the world economy is sitting on a powder keg, we can expect some renewed volatility.
Wow, there’s real fear reflected in the dollar — up from 74.2 to 75.5 since Thursday morning.
We’ll revisit the November low, but this is a day where a lot of US traders are away from their desks. Given where we are now, I would expect continued weakness on Monday.
interesting futes here, nas not off too much, and may want to double check gold…
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 74.05 -2.18 -2.86
Natural Gas 5.046 -0.126 -2.44
Corn 408.00 +16.00 +3.92
Soybeans 1054.5 +8.5 +0.81
30yr Bond 123.0000 -0.1875 -0.15
10yr Note 120.46875 +0.375 +0.31
NY Gold 1158.3 -35.5 -2.97
NY Silver 18.015 -0.68 -3.64
Emini S&P 1080.00 -4.75 -0.44
Emini Nasdaq 1747.5 -2.25 -0.13
Emini Dow 10235 -28 -0.27
After,
Double checked gold – Bloomberg has gold at -27.89. Lots of sunshine today in North Carolina (Raleigh). Really amazing what a little Arabian loan deferment of a shortterm credit facility can spark.
Matt, great call on the range! The FDI gold chart was timely as well. There seems to have been a pent up need for a red inspiring catalyst. Can’t wait to see the blowback from the Thankgiving surprise. RBS, given large amounts of undisclosed British dime already is exposed to the sand emeri’s.
Mitch, you live in Raleigh ? are you a Hurricanes fan ?
Dubai’s ruler 2 weeks ago. The first paragraph is a must read.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=av96Sjn0.1Ww&pos=6
After,
It’s all we have in the way of hockey – like the only lady in town and she’s hot to “boot.”
It is only a half day of trading, and typically very light volume. I bet we close higher than open. They won’t let it tank until there is a default, and not just the threat of one. Tanking will not help the world’s fragile mentality. If the close is below the open, I will be big time short. JMHO
String
Stringm,
You could be correct. I faded the gap on the underlying with confidence. HUGE gap and phil’s scary move.
SPY daily went down to its 36MA support and held there but it hasn’t changed any indicators. That gap WILL be filled, question is, will it result in a fresh new high or is a topping pattern being built? When ya don’t know, go with the flow (I just made that up).
George
I owned equal parts UWM and TWM. Sold TWM at the open, thinking about unloading UWM now. This seems to work good for gaps.
String
The big test will be if/when the underlying tests its overhead resistance at the 5min 36MA along with the inverse using that as support.
1% more and our school fund goes negative for this semester in unrealized net gains LOL
now this is an amazing 1st paragraph
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – A top Dubai finance official said the emirate fully expected fallout from its debt problems and assured foreign creditors that Dubai World’s request to postpone payment on some of its $60 billion in debt was “carefully planned.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091127/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_dubai_debt
Back within Matt’s range. Tale of the tape coming up.
I suppose it isn’t the 60 billion that is troubling – a mere drop in the bucket compared to the trillion bailouts – more of a sign-of-the-times indicator.
K, it seemed clear Dubai officials and its backers just want a better rate than that struck in June 08. Hundreds of thousands of people knew when and who would spark this. It’s a traders world, I just live in it.
futures bounced off S3 pivot at 1066.38!! lowest they went was 1067
i just fired up my charts and saw it thats all. that was around 2-3 am
Yerk, has been pretty good and channeling up the courses if thus market stream too no?
The auto-correct in the iPhone can steal a word or two from prior typing – guess I used “thus” at some point – damned. Stringm – watchout mofo. Lol
just FYI nice to know…..
NYSE Invokes Rule 48 In Anticipation Of Extreme Volatility
http://exchanges.nyse.com/archives/2008/03/48_today.php
Steady buying since the open, not much traction on the downside, dip buying still in vogue and Larry’s world gone mad still intact…but with a few splinters…
SPY touched the 50% retracement on the 5min chart then backed off.
K sez:
“NYSE Invokes Rule 48 In Anticipation Of Extreme Volatility”
See? I’m sure it won’t invoke it if it’s to the upside.
SPY nearing its 5min 36MA. Almost touched it.
wow shooting straight up HAHA
UAE has more cash or cash equivalents than the banque nationales. Yet, they pay usury on credit facilities of foreign origins. The credit facilities have whimsical and arbitrary sovereign backing. What a treat.
We’ve gone from 1 of 100 Nas 100 in the green (apollo) to 9 of 100.
Unguaranteed UAE sovereign investment in Dubai World is very similar to so many historical government investments into quasi private enterprises that turn into ponzi and bubble scheme blowups. Not a zzzzz day anyway.
SPY attempting a breakthrough of the 1min 36MA, then will try 5min 36MA if successful.
My wife went to the local mall and said there wasn’t a parking place to be found. Stores opened their doors at 3AM!
Christmas Rally is blooming?
George,
>>>>>>Christmas rally booming
I’m not a spendthrift but I’ll take this time to see if I need to accessorize or upgrade. I was surprised at K’s whiff on the Zune question. Tighten up K you don’t sad sack around me cuz! Have you seen one out of the box? Also, ever seen an HDTV signal catcher for the Pc/mac?
haha Zune or Ipod arent on my list. my sony will do http://www.wotevah.com/NW-E507/
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_YL7Wbn6RL8&pos=2
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) — Dubai’s debt woes may worsen to become a “major sovereign default” that roils developing nations and cuts off capital flows to emerging markets, Bank of America Corp. said.
“One cannot rule out — as a tail risk — a case where this would escalate into a major sovereign default problem, which would then resonate across global emerging markets in the same way that Argentina did in the early 2000s or Russia in the late 1990s,” Bank of America strategists Benoit Anne and Daniel Tenengauzer wrote in a report.
A default would lead to a “sudden stop of capital flows into emerging markets” and be a “major step back” in the recovery from the global financial crisis, they wrote.
Mitch, booming very well could trump blooming…
More on “Let Wall Street Pay for the Restoration of Main Street Act of 2009”, AKA, trading tax.
http://tinyurl.com/ykzvy5g
Nice Bloomberg find K. Soooo many managers have putting people in emerging market funds. Wonder if this slows that flow or if we are just shifting gears?
George, man just saw you wrote “blooming.” sorry to misquote you. Too busy turning two.
I’ve added anohter support line to the SPY daily to incorporate today’s action assuming the support level has been lowered. The original remains because I’m figuring on SPY to fall enough to fill the gap at the $107.40 area.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=3f9a5454-8953-44e7-a9c9-d450895fea7e
Mitch, I liked your “booming” better!
Unfortunately, not much time remaining today. I won’t take anything home because the weekend could flush out more news. That being said, I’d look for SPY to set up here for another move higher if it can get a fresh cross on its 15min MACD.
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/how_to/articles/The-9-Characteristics-of-Great-Traders-82801.cfm?
George,
there’s a northerly blowin on me here east of you. Haven’t seen an extended forecast but feels more like end of Nov.
Mitch,
Yes, it’s nice to see Carolina Blue skies again too. Dreary couple of weeks.
Getting that cross on SPY. WORking my last scalp. I may leave a little in SPY over the weekend. I figure it has a better chance of filling its up gap than its down gap.
Might get to do some wild boar huntin here soon. Hogs tearin up the fields over here. . .
Changed my mind a sold all my SPY but not my belief.
Work each day as it comes. I’m not good at guessing and all that. Wish I had better instincts and such but I don’t.
Either the Shorts are brave or everyone else is heading for the exits. Most likely taking profits for Black Friday’s sales.
Geo – I’m with you, humility has been beaten into me.
Wow, this turned out to be a super day – inside and out.
K, Larry and 2thfixr are all smiles. (Wonder if 2thfixr fixes his own?)
Mitch,
I hear ya. I’ve been smacked down so many times it ain’t funny. But I learn from those and come back swingin’. I figure if “they”
can do it, so can I.
george.
yes he does fix his own http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shIknlPS0oQ
haha, is that Beanhead funny, or what? So, that’s how it’s done!
this is an interesting Comparison. as always just a grain of salt but nice to have
http://thereformedbroker.com/2009/11/27/dubai-world-bear-stearns-coal-mine-canaries/
just fired up my platform (havent touched all day)
I mentioned futures bouced at S3 1066.38 well they Got stopped by S1 at 1094.63
that’s aweful!
seeing market closed on wednesday at 1110 (futures) and during these two short days lows 43 huge points (1110-1067) was amazing!!
we’re heading into the holiday season. santa’s red suit and rudolphs red nose will be the color of the market if this keeps up
i meant lost btw. now i need my bank failures to come so i can sleep well.
and SRS at 1h level hit 200EMA crucial level at 9.5 so once we’re on top of it this will be a nice first step to this turnaround.
Still watching you boys,rotor cuff rehab done back to the day job
Scotty
Hope it is going well. Me ole rotor may be injured too. I throw well but may have over done it with my lil brother (19) and brother-in-law months ago. 12 to 6 rotation fine but torque on the 2 o’clock starting point and yeowwww!
Rotator cuff problems here too. Therapy – I swim a little over a mile five times a week, at first it was painful, now it has gotten alot better. I also use a hot water bottle on the shoulder, seems to help.
at least is not this bad…
ORLANDO, Fla. – Tiger Woods was seriously injured in a car accident early Friday when his car struck a tree near his mansion in a gated waterfront community, authorities said.
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
This week the list changed by a net 30 institutions to 543 from 513 while aggregate assets increased by $10 billion to $312 billion.
care to guess for the preliminary TED ?:P
up 14%! upward channel has corrected and is now HEALTHY!!!!!!!!!
come onnnnnnnnnn where are these banks!! ugh
K, If the past two days were normal trading days with the same trading conviction to the news flow regarding the Persian Gulf Ted would be even higher. European banks uncertain about counterparty exposure to the immediate emirate negative stimuli and world uncertainty about the string unraveling the global credit network, yeah T bills should catch a bid along with EU interbank short-term risk premia. Ted would be exciting in a regular trading environment. Can’t have it all right. Nor should we expect it.
Happy Black Friday everyone! Yes, it was a good day for my portfolio, but I *had* to cover some of my QID and SDS about an hour into the session as the PPT drove the prices up and I was headed out for the rest of the day. NO sense in watching a big gain disappear as the bulls buy the dip. Still have a little less than half my previous short position working.
Had some great smoked turkey from my brother and then some more great BBQ at a place called the Hard Eight Pit BBQ in Ft. Worth near DFW. If you are near DFW, I’d highly recommend it!
I take it K that you are going to let your short position ride for some time? You have a 25% position from what I’ve gathered on the board? I’ll wait to see what Monday brings before deciding what to do with my positions.
I hear you George on the gaps. That upper gap from today has a big bull target on its back, but sometime in the near future, I think that Nov 6-9th gap is going to get filled as the market goes south for a solid correction.
Also, don’t forget to look at the weekly and monthly $SPX charts. Long top wicks on the weekly charts (bearish action) and a big bear push on Monday would create a “hard to miss” gravestone doji or shooting star candlestick. The story will be written on the 30th. Film at 11.
Oh yeah, good call to Jim on the UNG, nat gas play. Profitable if you bought in the low $9 (UNG). I’ll wait for the (2) wave correction to find wave 3 up for my friend’s account.
2thfixr i thought about closing it this morning then i decided not to. yes i will ride it for some time.. you can click on my name and then go to covestor to see my holdings (only one account)
if no banks fail today i will add another 5% next week.
unbelievable! i lost patience. not even one?
K,
The FDIC is probably taking a few days off. It’s Thanksgiving, you know.
Matt
but Matt,!
Counting bank failures on friday night is like counting sheep for me. how will i sleep tonight?
Why try counting sovereign defaults?
lol
Yes George yes you got every reason to smile! LOL
fine i’ll count every single word on this page before i sleep instead.
I thought this was worth sharing:
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/nov2009/pi20091125_103208_page_2.htm
And here’s Pg. 1 of above Business Week article:
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/nov2009/pi20091125_103208.htm