On Thursday, the market rallied strongly right into the teeth of an NFP jobs report. That was either insane, or insanely bullish. Film at 8:30am.
The “insane” case goes as follows: Late-to-the-party shorts piled on during Wednesday afternoon’s plunge, and were then appalled by Cisco’s earnings report and conference call after the bell. They were the ones buying on Thursday as they covered in a panic. In fact, they were right on CNBC telling you so. During the mini version of “Fast Money” at 12:45pm (I think), fabulous investors like Dennis Gartman said such things as “I’m too short and will be getting less short before the close.” Three of the four traders admitted to getting squeezed out.
SPY’s volume was very light, so the whole rally had the look and feel of a short squeeze. On the other hand, the entire rally since the March low has been on light volume. Also, the QQQQ had strong volume, and has formed a bull-flag since the Cisco news. A 100% extension of that flag would take the Q’s to 43.27, which is short of the rally peak, though it certainly could extend beyond 100%. Such a move would likely require at least an in-line number from the jobs report.
If the SPX were to make the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders topping pattern on Friday, I would view the pattern as suspect. It would have an up-sloping neckline, and that is said to make the pattern less reliable. However, the NDX doesn’t have that problem – it would have a flat neckline.
Going out to celebrate.
Have a great weekend all.
i got one link for you guys/gals
watch the TED!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20531334594
sure its still below the average 0.5 but its recent advancements cant go unnoticed
Bank Failure #116: United Security Bank, Sparta, Georgia
Thanks Matt for the recap. I’m still putting my faith in Constance Brown’s FIB theories: she allowed me to nail 1097 (1101 for real) so far for the retracement/leg up. Plus, as a small business owner, I’m on the front lines of the economy and “recovery” has not been on ANY of Joe and Jane Sixpack’s lips. They are hurtin’ for certain!
Julie, I agree that CNBC isn’t much anymore, and certainly should be classified as entertainment rather than “serious business insight.” I tend to check it for the announcements (unemployment, ISM, etc…) and ignore it otherwise. Would somebody please shoot Charlie Gasparino….please!
Yup Phil, you started a real barnburner with Grasso!
But honestly, if you listen to many of the calm, rational CNBC talking heads, they are all saying the same thing: “you’d be a fool to jump in here!” If you missed the last 400 S&P points, good luck picking back up the last 40, because it will probably go down before you get them. He was just a little more honest than most with his analysis than most: SELL IT! Fade the rally.
oops just #2 this week ZZZZZ indeed
Bank Failure #117: Home Federal Savings Bank, Detroit, Michigan
Julie
I will contribute to the CNBC cause. I don’t watch except for economic news @ 8:30, but I will help if possible. I used to be a CNBC addict and not necessarily because it was good content, but because I am prone to addiction. Kudloon and Mad Kramer and the group have long since had any value. Still like Art Cashin though, and I know there are folks here that don’t. Really don’t need them. had a good weekend, and I bet George broke down and ate some dead fish—- who was he kidding!!!!!!
String
HAVE a good weekend is what I typed, but had showed up !!
Matt
Thanks for keeping all this together – You Da Man!!!
#3-4 for the weekend. Thats what I’m talking about!!! I think that might be enough now. lol
Bank Failures #118 & 119: Banks in Minnesota & Missouri
I did eat dead fish tonight-disgusting…but good.
I made the mistake of doing a couple of trades for these
guys and they were hooked (no pun intended). I’ve converted more fishes to the flock.
I’ve missed a couple of good days this week but there’s always next week.
WAAAIT am not done!
#5
Bank Failure #120: United Commercial Bank, San Francisco, California
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $1.4 billion the other 4 were merely a few hundred million combined.
That should be it for failures. Looks like my appendix hurts if i know my anatomy. Maybe i overworked today sealing all 4 of my old windows. lol
I hope i don’t have appendicitis!!
I really do. nap time to rest
Is that how you go to sleep at night K – counting banks,,, instead of sheep?
Here’s the SPY weekly chart with the support trendline redrawn to reflect this week’s support at the lower candle. Still heading for 50%?
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=47796104-f746-40fb-abc3-7cb3debcc2fb
Here’s the latest SPY 15min Death Cross and Golden Cross chart:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=fb8e6cb7-bc8d-40db-a97b-0ab92eb0df07
George, you picked an excellent week to go to Duck! Were the fish happy to see you?
George,
Glad you are having a good time and converting the uninformed to stock scalping.
What do you make of the Oct 07, May 08, and Oct 09 trend line sitting over the top of us right now? I would say it will act as a pretty good indicator of the next leg of this market, don’t you? If it breaks above on volume–off to the races. If it acts as resistance, correction time coming.
String,
Thanks for your support. We appreciate it.
We like Art and Bob Pisani…the rest of them
play the pump game and should be fired.
The SPX support and resistance lines are in
a squeeze. This points to a big move ahead.
But it does not tell us direction. Be a nimble
two way player until direction is known.
Happy you are getting along well. Have a great
weekend…make a ton next week.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/Galleon%20Web.jpg
Mitch,
yes the fishes like me because I don’t fish anymore!
I gave that up several years ago. One desease down and a few more to go.
George, I bet that used to call you the truant officer – catching all those fishes out of school playing hooky.
2thfixr,
I agree it is decision time based upon the trendlines of the higher timeframes. I’m on the road now but I plan to take a close look at the technicals when I return home.
Hope you’ve been doing well.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/06/business/economy/unemployment-lines.html?hp
Julie
You and Paula are the apple of my internet pie, I am more than happy to help, I don’t like CNBC solely on the fact that Cramer and Ludloon work there. There is really no room in my time for CNBC anymore, they add no value.
George, you love a good cooked fish and you know it. They might not be as good as peanuts, but nothing is. A man can’t live on goobers alone, there has to be some spice.
String
Mitch,
I was playing hooky too
Stringm,
LOL “goobers”; I haven’t heard them called that in ages. You got me though… I do like my fishes. I just don’t reel them in, I let the Captain’s Galley do that. Long John Silver’s used to have the best cod fish but it isn’t as good now because they have a substitute they call cod.
Well, I have missed that bit so far.
“Under TARP, the fine print allows dealers to REPO stocks to the Fed as collateral (holy cow is right).
What if there were an arrangement where large dealers buy stocks and stock futures through the day and REPO them to the Fed at the high closing prices? The dealer would book the profits derived from the difference at no risk.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/dollar-fed-government-print-money-risk-minyanville/index/a/25328
Yerk,
Now you know who is running the U.S.
Hi Yerk,
if you’re still around – I was curious as to Germany’s total debt to GDP? US is 360% of GDP. Public debt to GDP in US is 80+% (maybe higher). Germany’s was 70+% of GDP.
If the Senate passes the Health Care legislation there will be some ramifications – I just can’t tell whether it will result in an increase in public burden. I would like to think private burdens will be reduced for the first several years.
“Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief executive defended the U.S. bank’s bonus policies in an interview with U.K.’s Sunday Times, saying banks serve a “social purpose,” and the return of high pay should be seen a sign of economic recovery.”