On Thursday, the market rallied strongly right into the teeth of an NFP jobs report. That was either insane, or insanely bullish. Film at 8:30am.
The “insane” case goes as follows: Late-to-the-party shorts piled on during Wednesday afternoon’s plunge, and were then appalled by Cisco’s earnings report and conference call after the bell. They were the ones buying on Thursday as they covered in a panic. In fact, they were right on CNBC telling you so. During the mini version of “Fast Money” at 12:45pm (I think), fabulous investors like Dennis Gartman said such things as “I’m too short and will be getting less short before the close.” Three of the four traders admitted to getting squeezed out.
SPY’s volume was very light, so the whole rally had the look and feel of a short squeeze. On the other hand, the entire rally since the March low has been on light volume. Also, the QQQQ had strong volume, and has formed a bull-flag since the Cisco news. A 100% extension of that flag would take the Q’s to 43.27, which is short of the rally peak, though it certainly could extend beyond 100%. Such a move would likely require at least an in-line number from the jobs report.
If the SPX were to make the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders topping pattern on Friday, I would view the pattern as suspect. It would have an up-sloping neckline, and that is said to make the pattern less reliable. However, the NDX doesn’t have that problem – it would have a flat neckline.
Why did the Treasury come out with TIPS?
Because the U.S. Govt. cooks the inflation
numbers, and it is another way for the
Treasury to scam the public while making
them feel thet are getting a good deal.
A right shoulder for a daily spx would need to be 20 days in length and would complete near the near the end of the month. Sept. would be the left with Oct. being the head. The neckline would project at an angle.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_oqKj7JIlUso/SvPDCR4AG_I/AAAAAAAAANQ/tyvLwAu1kw0/s1600-h/2009-11-06_$SPXdaily.png
doubletop in 5mins futures. 1 min till unemployment report.
well it went from 1069.50 to 1056.50 at 8:30
still can’t see the numbers due to overloading of a server but the chart said it to me. first a pop then a drop. if it was the reverse i would have been scared.
unemployment expected 9.9 came in at 10.2
oh yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhh there we go baby!! greenshoots galore
AIG posts a profit and drops 12% HAH!
Well, I saw that number coming . . . . It’s almost like any observant person here can feel and see the shift in employment situations.
So, 4 trillion was propped, funny because I was think the US would be a 10 trillion economy for the next 5+ years. -4 trillion.
Julie,
Maybe some numbers don’t lie Julie.
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/6/saupload_image054.jpg
damn that 70EMA at 1053!!!
2TH FIXER….picked up some TBT in pre market……going to pay for it when i cash in QID
10 year is hanging just under 3.50% (3.47 last I checked) and topped out at 3.53 recently. If the market goes down, I suspect it will get whacked. But, if they leave rates alone for a long time (late 2010),inflation may start to scare the long end and they will big rates up. I’m goig to hang on to my TBT until I see how rates are going to shape up.
2th fixer …..TBT rallied almost 1/2 point since i bot this am…i may sell it BEFORE the open … lol
TBT GAIN pushing 3/4 point ……..17 min till open
Phil and 2th,
Should be some great volatility in the Note and Bond market!
The market may see unemployment as favorable, Bernanke now has more leeway to throw gas on the bonfire…maybe he will make planet Earth into a cinder before it is all over…
Cinder – a fragment of incombustible matter left after a wood or charcoal fire….
MITCH…i agree with your analysis ..TBT could get well above 60…
MITCH…george…..be ready to buy bonds with both fists when TBT goes above 60
STRING….i see 30 yr is much weaker than 10 yr….i may short the 30 and buy the 10yr
So as not to confuse and bankrupt short term traders TBT to 60 might take a minute.
In my world Phil, that means holding the TBT (short 20+ yr). I was thinking the same thing: hold the TBT and grab the short term Treasury ETF to play on the flight to safety issue. Glad you feel the same way.
MITCH….weeks at least
Maybe even TWO minutes Mitch. haha
Nice piont on the H&S Bob PHD about the timing. I was thinking that the right shoulder would be mid-month or later, so getting here this quick seemed odd.
Update: 10 year is at 3.49 as I write this.
sold QID…for tiny 14c gain
Bulls are pushing hard!
NDX is leading ..just turned positive ..going to buy QLD now
SELL TARGET for all my DDM is still DOW 10100
first a bounce off the 70EMA at 9am now a bounce off 50EMA… at 1056 AGH! lol
The H&S target on the 30 min S&P chart is 1090! so we have a ways to go.
Good call on QLD Phil. Didn’t have the balls to buy it after last week’s ride on SSO went the wrong way.
SOLD 2000 TBT for 1.04 gain…….
Getting near some pre-determined short buys based upon Feb retracements of the top and bottoms from the last month.
2th FIXER ….thanks….i didnt like the reaction …weak gap down…best to take tiny profits and reverse to long …..listen to Ms Market…dont tell her what to do
2thFIXER…MATT ….look at TBF the unleveraged bond short…there is not all that overhanging supply like TBT since it is newer…maybe a better way to go…what do u think…. or anyonehave any thought on this?????
just a note… SRS is up.
I have 1/3 of my portfolio in TBT, but will be switching to 30-Year Treasury futures. If you look at a long term chart comparing TBT to TLT, which TBT is 2X the inverse of, you’ll see that it has significantly underperformed due to the daily compounding effect. The underperformance is to the tune of 23% over the past 1 year.
If you are thinking of shorting treasuries long-term, futures are the way to go.
TBF would work too, but you don’t get any leverage and it just doesn’t move enough.
K………i am lowering my sell TARGET to 10070 for my DDM….
Didn’t reach my short buys (automated) but picked up 1500 QID at 22.45 of which 1000 is a day play and 500 is another long term brick in the short wall.
2TH…all in all its just another………brick in the wall……PF
2th …………looks like i may buy back TBT soon
2th……..tbt shows the low as 47.56….it was in premarket 47.11..i will buy test or break of 47.11
See Jim2′s comment at 10:14.
MATT…thanks …thats why my TBT trades last only hours….
I agree, would love futures but Schwab doesn’t sell them.
JIM…thanks
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_FiNhXIv5StE/SvQqBT0LuxI/AAAAAAAAEZw/Rko1PQBPNUc/s1600-h/NYA.png
30 YR http://www.safehaven.com/images/tanashian/14936_large.png
Phil – No problem. Another option would be to buy puts on the TLT. You only pay a premium of about 8% a year for deep in the money puts, which is a better tradeoff than TBT.
RUT bouncing off the 70EMA in hourly..
70 and 10EMA are there together. 100EMA at 582 acted as resistance so far.
one more chart.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vIR9lEpVYYw/SvRNGSNFCdI/AAAAAAAAKLw/t_9gReeJwS8/s1600-h/sp500.png
Do any of you see a salesmen capable of closing this latest recession? I’m an optimist.
Oh, Thank Heavens, 7-Eleven’s Making Its Own Wine. Just, Ya Know, Don’t Call it “Cheap.”
Yosemite Road is quite the bargain: Says the press release, both the Chardonnay and a Cabernet Sauvignon will sell for $3.99 a bottle.
Ray Kroc, “I didn’t know what we would be selling in 2000 but whatever it was we would be selling the most of it.”
sold ddm for breaken …dont like what i see
Scotty
Your canary is down again, but I don’t know if the bird can be trusted.
String
market range now 1040-45 to 1080-85.
BREAKEVEN that is…actually it would be breakeven if schwab charged me $1.30 less of a commission…..id like to actually TALK to CHUCK..lol
this is one BOORING day. RUT is flirting with 10 and 70EMA’s in hourly still. once it breaks the only hope is 574-575 and then we’re off to sliding.
STEVE GRASSO…from the floor of the exchange just said SELL IT
the S&P 500 weekly trendline connecting the 07, 08, and 09 highs (1576, 1440, and 1101) is directly overhead (very low 1070′s) right now providing HARD resistance.
I’d love to talk to Chuck as well….but I’d get put in jail!
sell what?
Stringm ,step on him
Scotty
I got my foot on his throat, I’ll see what I can do, hard to fight GS.
String
The auctioneer takes bids – doesn’t issue directives.
Stringm,
If you need some help let me know? I just need to know birdies name cause I forgot.
birdie bitch
MITCH….he SEES and HEARS much more than we can..pay heed
Phil,
doesn’t jibe my man.
Down where we belong. here’s an appropriate song.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zP_KKHvDl3s
Tweety IWM
were is my bb gun
well SWHC is up 0.25% so am guessing you went out and bought a real gun scotty?
Grasso could be doing reverse psychology: telling the masses to SELL to his buddies today before they break it out next week.
Just a thought about listening to the “talking heads.” I’m not really sure about anything on Wall Street, but I’m quite sure “full disclosure” isn’t a part of their ethics when people appear on TV. Not saying Grasso (who works a post) is telling fibs or lies, but I’m quite sure nothing leaves his lips over the air unless his clients/bosses allow him to say it (for better or worse to those who listen).
lets see what 3pm shall bring us.
i’ll play some command and conquer so i can take charge in 30 mins
Mission Accomplished!
Ahh perhaps i should play the next mission till market closes?
nothing zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Just setting up for a drop into triple digits on the S&P500….you gotta set it up for people to buy in!
zzzz is right. wow what kind of fun is this?
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/goldman-sachs-gs-threatens-to-form-cradle-sell-signal/
worthless but interesting
If you guys are not hot for this market up or down – get a new girlfriend. Lol.
Spoiled I’ll tell ya!
Maybe 1 won’t cut it Mitch.
Here comes a bullish push to run it up into the close!
Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 6 percent in the third quarter of 2009.
this came out at 3pm and bumped the market a bit but all is well folks.. all is well except those 3-6 banks that will fail tonight.
K,
Hope you will join us. We hit a milestone yesterday.
We found 1000 people who told us they would not
support CNBC sponsors…would find 10 more
people to do the same…etc. Our goal is to cut
CNBC ad revenue by 70%…or until CNBC changes
its ways. We have also hired a lawyer to see if
we can attach the assets of “CNBC experts” who
make stupid forecasts.
The fact that the market did not breakdown today
could be considered bullish…but the crumble may
have just been delayed a few days.
Sheila is getting out of a black van with a meaningless government logo on the door….ahem, we’re here to close you down. Back away from the money. slowly. thank you.
Nothing to see here folks, please move along.
K, the deleveraging continues! No credit = poor holiday sales.
Julie,
as long as you list those sponsors I will send out emails to them
What do you say Matt, do we still have a bear flag in effect on the short term charts? the volume the past couple of days has been very light, so even IBD couldn’t call yesterday’s monster move a “follow through” day to reverse their correction label.
K,
Thanks. As a starter…Schwab…Think or Swim.
Julie,
What are you attempting to get CNBC to do? What are your objections with how they do business? I’m unfamiliar with what your concerns and issues are. I’d love to hear them. Thanks.
K,
We sent an e-mail to OptionsXpress…We
do not watch CNBC full time…only see the
bad stuff I guess…but we have not seen
OptionsXpress ads since our e-mail…may
have just missed them.
Julie,
OUCH. TOS? well I will email them countless times but I can’t promise much results as far as using them.
any other big ones?
2thfixr,
We are trying to get CNBC to return to its
roots. During the early years CNBC was worth
watching. Had a good market recap after the
market close. Today it seems their only goal
is to pump the market…or let “experts” talk
the public into recovering their losses.
WOW!!!!!……i never thought that posting….GRASSO said SELL IT…would create such a firestorm….lol
Phil,
It took us 6 weeks to find 1000 people. As
of now I think Schwab has lost 25 accounts.
One of the craziest things on CNBC: a couple of times in recent months, I’ve seen Marian Bartiromo interview a bear. After the bear gives his forecast, she ask’s him: “What’s your problem?”
MATT…..maria bartiromo has such a thick skull that even sitting at cnbc for 10 or 15 years does not allow anything to sink in
2thfixr,
I need to study my charts, and will have something to say over the weekend.
Today’s down-gap got bought; that’s a hallmark of a bull market.
We had lots of ZZZZZZZZZZs today, and that is also a hallmark of a bull market.
Buying dips going forward might be the best strategy until the VIX perks up again, or it gets down to the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart.
Matt