The candlestick pattern of the SPX over the past few days is odd, though the Bearish Falling Three Methods is a pretty close match. That said, the market is pretty oversold. It has room to get more oversold, but the spring is wound pretty tight now. If the jobs report comes in slightly better-than-expected, it could produce a nice pop.
Also, on CNBC last night, they interviewed a congressman who said that he will be voting “no” – then they asked him if he thought that the bill would pass, and he said “yes” with confidence. So, I’m thinking that if the opposition isn’t skeptical, then I shouldn’t be either.
If the jobs report causes a dip in the morning, I may place a small long-side bet if prices start to turn back up.
Watch the comments for updates throughout the day.
SDS going for a 5 minute double bottom.
I’m looking for a BAC bounce to 40 (because it is a round number) to cover the cost of my JPM puts.
“The ayes have it”
Roll call to confirm
Pelosi is wrapping up, they should vote soon, and I now think it will pass. Big BUT here, there will be a lot of attempts, after the fact, to ensure the taxpayers are protected. Sounds bearish.
Voting now starting, done in 15 minutes
Vote was scheduled for 12:30 – note time tick
. Heard that it might be this evening or tomorrow. Judging by ear running… 3/4 for a few really against and almost everybody starting with I hate this but….amazing who listens to who though…heard Brooks, Leonhardt, et.al. read into record.
OOPS they’re voting on something….think it’s to bring the real vote to the floor.
voting just started. How long does this process take or is it like “Who wants to be a millionaire?” where everyone pushes a button?
Pubs voting 60% in favor so far (vs 30% final on Monday)
Dblwyo
This is the the big one: ACTUAL vote on Seante amendments
O.K. they’re voting. Voice vote was overwhelming with a few nays and now they’re counting.
D 55/11 R 36/25 still to vote 163/135 D/R Total 98/38
Still 3:2 on Pubs, 4:1 on Dems
People selling out just in case.
This is getting closer: 51% aye on pubs
4 minutes remaining two to one for the bill
I don’t see how this bill could drop. 65 ayes for pubs, with 78 votes left.
Just some posturing to see if they can vote “no”
78 pubs votes left, taht is
Only need 100 of the 163 NV now
187 101 146
y:202 n:116 nv:114
Paul F,
I saw your update before the C SPAN stream! Are you watching on a TV?
215
it passed!!!!
did the bailout fail to pass?
Yup, TV
Market reaction: nothing
hmm. ho hum response so far… Do people not know it passed?
We’re watching online on CSpan
Time’s up.
D 166/61/8
R 89/106/4
Was running 4:1 and 1:1 until it passed at 218 (?) and people could vote their meal-tickets.
Final 261/169.
Interesting implications for elections in that H Rep’s voted against the weight of evidence and the Dems bailed ‘em out.
rofl.. let the selloff begin..!!
just barely passed
Charlie – almost to the tick ! Nice call. Why ?
missed the
I wonder if the reaction to the bailout will be similar to reactions to things like interest rate cuts.. initial reaction is always the wrong one… to shake people out?
Hmm.. maybe due to the huge unpopularity of this bill, people are punishing wallstreet by selling.. or maybe it further cements the fact that the situation is so bad that a bailout is required just to keep the market afloat..
Waiting for a sign of a bottom and may try a small SSO position for fun.
Market up, gotta go down, then back up. Lot of time remaining today.
Daboyz kneading this dough back and forth to get more dough.
BAC plunged on the news. WTF? JPM didn’t move. Guess I got that trade backwards.
Charlie;
I’m waiting on SSO to come to me with a set up.
Remember the gap this AM.
BBT tanked, too. Now I get to trade it.
This is still a technical move. SDS hit a double bottom, reversed right at the time of the vote, going for gap if it can.
I hope ICE goes back to the 60′s. Not 1960.
This news event merely speeded up the technicals instead of the molasses moves.
We’ll see what it does when it hits the gap.
Beautiful.
FWIW on a 5Da5Min SPX chart the magic number since mid-day Mon seems to be 1140+/- – gap up from, gap down to, resistance up and down. Look at today, just as an example. Fascinating.
Close to gap resistance.
ok i failed calc test.
but the bill passed
now BAC had a huge drop as you mentioned. anything worth buying and holding over the weekend?
Apple Shares Flatline After Bogus Steve Jobs Health Report
22 minutes ago – Dow Jones News
ehehe cry wolf one more time and when he’s dead nobody will care
K;
Until everything gets settled in the market, I wouldn’t hold. Unless you come across something real juicy.
Tech is outpacing XLF.
I guess the problem was that there were no shorts to panic cover. Too bad for the bulls.
time for 2pm reversal?
juicy like NCC? i wouldn;t know until it spilled
lol
Charlie;
It’s working on it.
SDS really wants to go back up to that gap. Must be some Oreos up there.
lol George.. Oreos and a glass of milk.
WOW, BBT lost all of its +$2 gain and went negative. Now, that’s where the juice will be once it gets a setup.
BBT had to fill its gap, too.
SDS may be slipping.
BBT till monday or should I sleep tight on this one weekend?
Charlie,
If you were a bull, and you saw the bill passed and the market drop 100-200pts afterwards, and saw even the financials down, would you buy?
Confidence is blown. This reminds me of the Monday after the GSE bailout: huge gap up, then slow, painful drop with a limp face-saving rally at the end. A rally now is a shorting opportunity. I dumped my BAC calls for a loss (at $37), but I’m holding my JPM puts (both were small positions).
Another disconcerting event: the VIX is down only about 3% (43.82).
Geroge, seems as if Charlie is talking about a bullish reversal, since we’ve already seen a bearish reversal right after the news.
Hey Paul,
per what you’ve said, I agree with you in that confidence is blown, but keep in mind that the talking heads have been going crazy and they will try and sway some buyers to come in and take positions before the close. Anything can happen over the weekend and Libor rates might even drop some which would make a case that there is optimism going forward. In the end, if you’re not already short, now is not the time to do it. If you’re long.. then good luck and sell into the bounce…
Paul F – here, here IMHO.
The downtrend is still intact, the bear rallies getting weaker and shorter. Questions now are will we get one here and how much/long ? And when will we return to downtrend ?
Thoughts, suggestions ?
It looks to me like the previous rallies on sentiment based on mis-reading the economy are slowly being replaced by a firmer grasp of reality. Amazing that people who live in markets don’t understand business cycles,e.g. employment is a lagging indicator.
At the time of the vote, the SPX wasn’t overbought on the 60-minute stochastic, but the futures were. They were way out of sync, and I didn’t know what to make of that, but my first data point says that the futures win the face-offs. I’m starting to think that its more important to look at the futures than the market itself.
damn skf. i wanted to play you today from $98 to $104
had no computer available
Nope, it has to go gappin.
wow just when i mention SKF it pops another $2+ lol damn it
Don’t miss the big picture. This is the beginning of the end. The market reaction was without any doubt.
We will end up in the reds.
)
(Maybe I am just too sad this week because I missed twice the chance to double my portfolio. Don’t wanna go into details. Just pissing me off.
okay.. totally wrong on the 2pm reversal thing. Seemed like it was more of a 2pm pause and then resume sellling @ 2:25 deal cause everyone skipped lunch to watch the news on the bailout vote.
boy oh boy i love paterns more than macd. i wish i got in at $104 instead of typing here
I feel your pain Dressguard. I wanted to get into SRS 2 days ago when it was @ $76, but didn’t. Thought that the Senate vote would give the market a bounce, but no… bulls have turned into real chickens as of late. None of them are buying for me to short into.
sds looks like a nice trade soon. down so quickly…
i mean UYG sorry
SDS gap filled.
UYG just broke down further. am scared to look at SKF as it might be too high and i will be pissed
Hey everyone,
just had a thought.. Given that short selling was banned until the bailout was passed.. and now that it has.. do you think that once the ban expires, that the next shoe to drop for financials will be on the 18th?
I think most members of da House are gonna puke when they see the market reaction to their voting. Most expensive drop in history of mankind.
UYG support around 16.20. i got in at 16.56 lol. i thought i could outsmart the trend and once again BLEH.
might reverse by end of the session
Charlie,
At the time, I wasn’t counting on a drop, just saying that we had already reached the high. I had thought that we would end up about 100-150pts – face saving, just like the GSE bailout. I kept my JPM puts (again, small position), but didn’t go any more short.
The immediate reaction can’t be hidden. If we end up 100pts, it is still within a bear market, so we will trend down next week anyway. If we end up down (at all) today, then buckle up, ’cause DOW 10k and below will come up fast.
Also, greed and panic drive big moves. Panicing bulls can still create big plunges (Monday), but without shorts, there is no panic-driven rally.
Also, can someone explain to me what a rate cut will do when treasuries are below 0.4%? Answer: they can’t do ANYTHING. Rate cuts work by the FED selling Treasuries, increasing supply, until the market rate DROPS to the FED rate. But the FED rate is already ABOVE the market rate.
Dressguard
Maybe they want the vote back…
Matt, so the futures were higher than fair value at the vote time? And we still dropped? I would have went with the futures as well…
Too late. Bushman already signed.
Dressguard, Yerk,
I was thinking the same thing, lol
if latest uyg candle holds and the next one is green it has broken it’s pattern. sorry
My guess: AAPL will finish below $100 for a long time.
Hey Paul,
I think the magnitude of this drop surprised more than a few people. The government just blew $800 billion and they got a slap in the face and a ‘so what’ out of wallstreet.
We might get a sympathy rally into the close..
apple can go to crap. nokia and nintendo are attacking it with products.
i just want the next 5 min uyg candle solid green and i’ll be happy
but there is no doubt the trend is still down and will be for a while.
The new Nokia 5380 Music Express looks reasonable. Couldn’t find a price tag on the thing so far. Brand new.
After days like yesterday, talk to most traders and they’re likely to say, “I need a drink.” Apparently, that’s exactly what they’ve been doing. This morning, Anheuser-Busch issued a press release with the following headline: Interestingly, while Anheuser-Busch (BUD) is reporting stronger than expected results, the company which is set to acquire it, InBev
nokia finally got caught up, htc with phones, nintendo with games. once they catch up to apple’s features like multitouch screen, etc. apple will still have the itunes business but not gonna be the same
I never understood the attraction of iTunes. I get my music from the internet too, but for free.
people made so much money in financial stocks this week they’re just unloading
dressguard. i’m a pretty advanced and techie user and i don;t have any apple products at all.
had i played the charts well i could have made 200% by looking at technicals with apple the past year. with those huge drops and all
I declare the sympathy rally officially to be over.
it ain;t over yet if K hasn;t closed his UYG position
The last half hour will be interesting.
I would sell that piece of shite as long as you can find a stupid buyer for that crap.
AAPL and FXP meeting at the crossroad.
I’m going to miss the volatility when it goes away.
Still a lot of sellers out there.
homebuilders XHB has been taking it on the chin this past week. Looks like a revisit of the July lows may be in order.
One more scalp and I’m through for the week.
i will give a discount sale of 15.97 to whoever wants it. original price 16.56.
come on come on before it’s worth more
I don;t want to sell leave go back go back!
Next week we will see DOW below 10,000 points.
go damnit. i saig 15.97 not 16.19
something scrwed up to sell it at that price. maybe a spike?
Da House handed the most harmful financial weapon over to Hank and the market says: “You have been screwed!!!”
K;
I’d hang on. It may cycle back up again. I would sell if the next 1 minute cycle fails.