The candlestick pattern of the SPX over the past few days is odd, though the Bearish Falling Three Methods is a pretty close match. That said, the market is pretty oversold. It has room to get more oversold, but the spring is wound pretty tight now. If the jobs report comes in slightly better-than-expected, it could produce a nice pop.
Also, on CNBC last night, they interviewed a congressman who said that he will be voting “no” – then they asked him if he thought that the bill would pass, and he said “yes” with confidence. So, I’m thinking that if the opposition isn’t skeptical, then I shouldn’t be either.
If the jobs report causes a dip in the morning, I may place a small long-side bet if prices start to turn back up.
Watch the comments for updates throughout the day.
am beyond pissed right now. loll.
am liquidating everything at whatever loss and gain.
The futures are saying: “Welcome depression!!!”
UYG = prime example of 5 minute not confirming a buy. It is moving back up and may do it this time.
George something happened probably a downward spike as i put 15.97 limit and it sold at 16.19687
I think the sympathy rally starts here.. and ends @ 9:40 am on Monday.
That gives the right signals for the Asian markets next week.
there i knew UYG was setting up for that because there was support at 16.20. damn one of you guys made that spike to kill me lol
Good bye everybody i will spam later tonight. for now i must go have dinner with someone and maybe this friday depression will go away
K;
Oh, I thought you still had it.
George something weird happened as i did say i would sell it at 15.97
but it sold at 16.19 as i stated and i got pissed as i knew that was a support point grrr
K – can’t be too bad considering your social life. Drink enough and this all goes away.
16.20 would have been a good entry. Short lived, but good enough for a small scalp.
ok.. glad I don’t put my $$ where my mouth is sometimes… Ugly going into the close it seems.
Hot dang.
If someone asked me, if I was on a desert island and only had one thing to eat, what would it be?
15 minute time frame.
Da House wants to vote again on Monday. Just kidding.
Wow, I had a tiny long position (SPY call) that was up 15% this morning…busy all day and I come back and see the wheels have fallen off the cart and I’m down 40%! Good thing it’s chump change.
So who called this one?
I don’t know who called it, but it has been a great day.
Hey guys, I know what can save us. A $700tn bailout plan!!!
ICE holding steady with the carnage. It already made a good move down. Should have a good move up in the coming days.
Anyone remember the levels that Rich was putting out?
Many believe that wave 3 has not completed yet – with S&P targets ranging from 1070 to 950…
It is sad that Hank, Ben and congress.. along with the current president and the 2 future presidential candidates are all idiots.. Even 700 billion isn’t enough when you don’t know how to use it properly.
The NYSE TICK is barfing almost as bad as it did on Monday. The market *usually* snaps back from action like this. I made big profits shorting today, but have cashed out.
I don’t buy anything 5-10 minutes before the close. Not enough time for something to develop possibly.
Does anybody remember that a month ago we were at sp 1300?
Maybe they will allow shorting to help the market rally.
Paul F;
That’s revealing, isn’t it? Down that quickly.
Lots of $ is made in swings like these.
We may still be headed for a bottom. Obviously, this isn’t it.
The two calls I’ve made here today:
1.) AAPL will finish below $100.
2.) Next week will see the DOW below 10,000 points.
The first one was easy the second one even easier.
(You are officially allowed to call me a bigmouth.
)
Dressguard;
How about S&P, where will it be?
George,
Too late to help in the short term. Short sellers only create rallies if they are already short.
Pakistan realized that it was a bad idea, too.
10k is an easy call for next week. Now if you want to call 10k for monday…
Matt;
WTG on the shorting. Was that futures or the index. Assuming you can short futures.
Ok guys, what about this call? DOW will be below 8,000 at the end of the October.
DG,
Now THAT’S a call! Are you putting your money on that?
Who’s in danger besides financials, auto companies, and airlines?
Sadly ironic…………Senate passes bailout…..market tanks……house passes bailout……market tanks.
Let’s see:
We now have less “stock market” wealth than we did before the bailout plan and taxpayers are out of pocket 700B. Nice work.
I am putting my money on that, of course. I don’t believe in the end-of-year rally theory. I was reading Danny’s blog today (http://www.ibankcoin.com/dannyblog/) and highly disagree. Observation correct, conclusion wrong. My conclusion is that the hedge funds are screwed and will barf up more of their stocks. See MOS and MON. Hedge Funds barfed up yesterday and I was almost tempted to buy some stocks of these companies today. They must be heavily oversold after the volume yesterday. But nothing. Dead man walking. This is getting worse every day. At the beginning of the year a possible announcement of the FED could prop up the markets. Now even a $700bn bailout package does nothing. You do the math.
George,
I bought some SDS shortly after the bill passed, and went short in the futures also. I’m starting to like the futures better than anything else since the market seems to work better. S&P futures always have a quarter-point spread between the bid and ask, and I always get filled instantly – even when the market is going wild.
Matt
Of course, before calling a bear market, don’t forget the stimulus boost from the wooden arrow tax credit. Anyway, this was the shortest rally yet.
Perspective time:
September 2008 was the 7th worst S&P performance since 1950 (yahoo data)
-21.76% 10/01/87
-14.58% 08/03/98
-11.93% 09/03/74
-11.39% 11/01/73
-11.00% 09/03/02
-10.18% 03/03/80
-9.56% 09/02/08
Paul F,
I think you are on to something with the wooden arrow tax credit. Perhaps a long lumber position is in order.
Note to all, short selling ban will be lifted next Thursday. Open season again on all banks.
Have your gun polished and lots of ammo ready… Let’s go huntin!!
So, now that the banking world is almost saved (“If you think this bailout is expensive, just wait until you see the next one”) let’s focus back on the real economy and the incoming earnings reports.
IMF Says U.S. Faces `Sharp Downturn’ as Market Crisis Worsens
“In today’s report, the IMF warned that stress in the banking sector tends to deepen recessions, based on comparisons with previous periods of market instability. Slowdowns or contractions preceded by a banking crisis tended to double or triple the size of the downturn, the fund said.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aNeRYv3hytE0&refer=home
I will now begin to invest in stocks rather than daytrade NOT.
I had a nice dinner. paid a little more than my own share and had 2 girls haha. now if only I could pimp in the market again and make my money.
so next thursday ban is lifted you say? HA I love this blog even more for whoever gave the link to the pakistani market after shorts were kicked. this will be a great 3rd and 4th quarter.
UYG closed below my initial limit anyways so I ended up saving 20 which paid for dinner.
time to go home and begin the search for the next gamble.
I agree most signs point down.
Recent negative economic data, wow that seems to matter again.
More bad economic data is likely to follow.
I presume the bulls know that the shorts are coming next week and the weak hands will bail before Thursday. Some were gone today
But let me play devil’s advocate.
The SEC has already made noise about relaxing the M2M requirements.
The Congress has given Paulson and company a new weapon. With relaxation from M2Market to M2Model Paulson can buy debts at slightly higher prices. They can therefore drive the ‘market value’ for these debts up by buying them at elevated prices. Repeat the process a few times and soon the small increases significantly raise the market value of the debt.
Any thoughts on this idea?
I think the momentum stocks, and cyclical stocks will coninue to fall. But the banks seem a bit dangerous to short until we once again know what the rules are.
Matt;
Futures sound neat. I’m looking at Global Futures. They have a simulated trading account. My current broker does not have futures. This is really interesting. I need to branch out like you folks with futures and options.
Thanks
newbie,
That has been Paulson’s and Bernanke’s idea all along…
Good point Newbie. The banks will be the first to spring upwards when we hit bottom. Especially when Congress approves that FED can pay them interest on cash they have stashed at FED.
As for house prices? Well they will continue to fall until buyer meets seller. Since credit is limited and expensive for the buyer expect further falls for a good while.
The delta between what HP is paying and what he can sell it for later on? Sorry mate, that’s you the tax payer.