My bullish falling-wedge did indeed play out, and since Wednesday afternoon, the market has formed a bull-flag. A 100% completion of the flag would take the SPX right up to the December 4th peak at 1119.
It’s not the greatest looking flag though. SPY had a high-volume jolt of selling at 1pm on Thursday, and the “cloth” part of flags should ideally be periods of quiet, low-volume trading. Apple also made an exhaustion gap on Thursday morning. It peaked right at it’s December 4th peak, which came on another exhaustion gap. Déjà vu all over again, though Apple held up better intra-day this time. Other red flags (ha, ha) are the BKX and IWM making 9/36/15 cross-downs
So, we have a mediocre-looking bullish pattern, and we also have the big retail-sales report at 8:30am, and it is always a potential market mover. Click on the entry on the Bloomberg calendar to see a chart.
The bulls need to get the SPX up to at least 1113. If the retail-sales report disappoints, and the market plunges, then it just might take out the lower end of the range. Bulls should be rooting for the banks and small-caps cross back up.
Thanks Phil for the link to option pain calculator. You da man!
For the record, SPY has moved to $103 as max pain. Yikes!
I like your thinking Matt on the SPX pushing up to 1119–let’s get it there!
George,
I’m going to put a ground water heat pump
into Mother’s ,Julia’s , my homes. The
contractor tells me that it will cut our electric
bills by 50%. Then I’m going to look into
uding a heat pump to heat water. Am working
on where to spend the money I save.
5:30 futes
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 70.93 +0.39 +0.55
Natural Gas 5.236 -0.062 -1.18
Corn 393.00 +9.5 +2.42
Soybeans 1027.0 -1.5 -0.15
30yr Bond 118.15625 -0.25 -0.21
10yr Note 118.171875 -0.46875 -0.40
NY Gold 1139.6 +13.4 +1.18
NY Silver 17.57 +0.382 +2.19
Emini S&P 1108.75 +6.75 +0.61
Emini Nasdaq 1809.75 +9.75 +0.54
Emini Dow 10462 +6 +0.06
Learned my Dec 4th lesson: take partial profits BEFORE the 8:30 am news possibly ruins your profits! Now if retail numbers aren’t up to par, I still swing traded SSO from $36.40 to $37.79 on 40% of my position. Now, let’s push it up to SPX 1119 Matt for a nice shorting swing trade!
Phil, TBT is up pre-market to $49. That takes out near term resistance.
Julie,
I’m still studying the geyser heat pump. I think some of their savings claims comes with figuring it is going to be used as a dehumidifyer which may or may not be beneficial.
I prefer “passive” solutions but if an “active” solution saves $ then I’m all for it (until a more efficient solution can be found). The thermal heat pump is excellent. I have some friends who just installed it and it makes a difference – a good example of a passive solution (using underground temperature) for an active device (heat pump).
The Euro Breakup Will Be THE Story Of 2010, As Analyst Expects Ireland And Greece To Leave The Union
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-euro-breakup-may-be-the-story-of-2010-as-analyst-expects-ireland-and-greece-to-leave-the-union-2009-12
Ukraine — one of the top 10 countries most likely to fault — will not be receiving a $3.5 billion, fourth-tranch of a loan it was slated to get from the IMF.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-imf-wont-bail-out-ukraine-as-government-finances-deteriorate-beyond-repair-2009-12
Grain of salt. take 3
http://www.businessinsider.com/rosenberg-get-ready-for-risk-to-double-2009-12
SOLD all remaining TBT @ 48.62…..STILL not buying any bonds yet
2TH FIXER…you are welcome for the max pain link..was there trading @49 in tbt pre market?? if so if u snooze u lose applies to me ..just got up!
Hadn’t seen this word before, got a laugh out of it:
“Obamageddon”
Germans Complain That All The Good Manufacturing Jobs Are Going To America
http://www.businessinsider.com/germans-complain-that-all-the-manufacturing-jobs-are-going-to-america-2009-12
WHITE LINE CONNECTS 2007 AND 2008 PEAKS now cleanly above Phttp://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/2009-spx-daily9.png
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/2009-spx-daily9.png
NOTICE how this sideways consolidation has been trying to hold above BIG WHITE line for weeks
CLICK chart for close up view
Phil, yes, there was a print at $49, but just the ask got there.
Yes, the peaks line is right there. Now, we are below it….
Then below it…then above it….just another line to watch.
NEXT week a drop to 1080 would STILL hold above the line
George, are you ready to hug an inverse today? Starting to set up, don’t you think?
Phil, I have that line at 1099 right now (today). We were below it the past couple of days.
Phil, we’re headed for 1030….Max pain baby!
probably grasping at straws for next week but added more :
qqqq dec 42 puts @ 0.06
vix dec 24 calls @ .25
short sc.to at 43.12
PAGE 3 at bottom shows same as BIG WHITE 2th FIXER http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3271025&cmd=shows185574561&disp=O
UUP is UUP
2thfixr,
The inverse is trying. Scalping 1min waiting for 5min to surge.
ok guys I’m relinquishing another secret chart of mine.
I cant keep secrets well.
I’ve had this chart drawn up since i believe august then readjusted the top trendline a bit in mid october.
http://i46.tinypic.com/fyhe6f.png
EUR/USD chart… enjoy courtesy of K
Was hoping, still am, that SPY goes higher. My 5min doodad says it needs to do it now.
Me too!!!!! the grasshopper has learned from the master! Thank you!
I have a stop below the 15 min SSO at about $37.20 in case the inverse wins big!
George, another 50c in DZZ.. did you grab some scalping tools?
When the 5-min turns, do we add more, or just hang on to what we have?
I can’t tell if SPY is struggling or consolidating. ICE has been nice as well as URE – which means SRS will come back with a vengence. JUICE!
Or wait for a Tres Cruzar on the 15 min at about 35.80???
Hmmm, the curious case of BBT. Gapped then flapped.
dzz is stuck in between
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=DZZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&i=p20531334594&r=7648
oops
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DZZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p20531334594
K,
Eur/Usd
I think Australia has played things well from the beginning of the crisis. However, they now may have a problem.
I saw where margin is 50.00 a lot at one house. Suppose you made a thousand dollar bet on Usd/Aud. What would you have to set aside K?
what would I have to set aside? easy $1000 bucks lol
SRS struggling to get past its 15min 9MA at $9.28.
SPY sitting on 15min 36MA.
I mean $8.28 on SRS’s 9MA resistance. Just broke it.
If we go from green to red, we’ll have a group hug on those inverses.
Isn’t red the predominate color for Christmas?
SPY intraday gap filled! The tale of the tape.
SDS neds to take out $36.01 pretty quickly, or a doji top on the 5 min.
K…UPP is outside daily bb…good place to dump call options…..remember ….WHEN YOU ARE YELLING>>>you should be selling
K ….look at UPP on nov 25 was outside LOWER boll band….WHEN YOU WERE CRYIN ..you should have been buyin
SOLD all UUP @ 27.71….. looking to buy any hard breaks
K…see that huge up candle volume on nov 5???lots of people want to get their money back…wait for downdraft from their selling to buy
ALSO see what buying outside boll band gets you???? its called PAIN
its ok phil
no pain no gain
K,
What scalping tools? IF You mean scalp DZZ – YES, another quiver in my arsenal.
THanks…. BTW – GImme MORE!
2thfixr,
RE: “When the 5-min turns, do we add more, or just hang on to what we have?”
I missed that post. I will sometimes add more if I have 3 time frames all moving up (or triple-up then sell as each turns over) but usually I do single trades.
phil Says:
December 6th, 2009 at 8:43 am
2TH fixer….those are NOT “my “charts or counts..i am just using Kennys charts to show that the dollar is potentially at a turning point…could your count be correct….OF COURSE..who the hell knows….as far as SPX 1600 ..i am using that as a metaphor … we could go WAY higher…i believe the all time highs will be approached at least..EVERYONE is now conditioned like PAVLOVs DOGS that dollar up…stocks down…WHOOPS…wont they be surprised when that all falls apart!! the DOLLAR SOARED WITH STOCKS into the 1999 2000 peak and then stocks and dollar fell together into the 2003 low…longer term of course the dollar is toast…this is a counter trend rally but should be a doozie
>>>>>>>>DOLLAR ZOOMS UP BUT STOCKS DONT FALL..hmmmmmmm
no i mean steve nison materials
Oh, yeah, K… I’m an expert on candlesticks now with my 30min of training.
Actually, they have come in handy and I am trying to apply them. Just saw spy on the 1min have one of those doji reversals and sure enough, it went up. They do convey a lot of information if one knows what to look for.
K, I should have put a
by that first comment as it was a joke.
SRS is marking-time right now, letting its 5min stochastic bottom. That could mean a nice move up.
2thfixr,
One thing about buying the dips during an uptrend, it’s only the last one that is a loser.
Made 0.14 on the SDS trade, so at least I am getting more successful! Thanks. SSO was a very positive swing trade, bought at 36.40 and sold at average of $37.55.
I understand Phil your point Phil. Time will tell.
2TH FIXER…SORRY..that last rehash was not intended for you…i wanted to just post the part about the dollar and stocks alone… but i didnt know how to get the upper part with the date … so i just posted the whole thing again……
2thfixr,
WTG! I don’t know what time frame you’re trading, but if on the 1min and it gets above 36MA, check the 5min to see if it is above its 9MA with MACD trendlines moving up and histogram ticking above the zero line, then move to the 15min.
This is how to stay with a trend or scalp while the trend is developing.
DR brett and DR phil are on same wavelength.. lol http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/12/shifting-intermarket-relationships.html
SPX 1122 is 50% retrace http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/2009-12-11_spx2.png
Thanks George. Just jumped into SDS at $35.75 again as the 1 min crossed and 5 min is about to. Support is at $35.72 as well, so that is my stop loss. I’ll give it another try!
No offense taken Phil.
Good trading to you man!
2thfixr,
I got into SRS at $35.69 on the 1min.
George meant SDS at that price, not SRS.
I held part of my SDS on the Tres Cruzar that looks to be in play at this point AND the max pain calculation of $105 on the SPY. Thanks Phil. My next swing trade is in.
Have a great weekend all. Talk to you soon.
you did get my email messages on steve nison right george?
i sent you 3 emails i think 2 are related to him.
K,
All I got were the flash hacks.
K,
Yes, I know how to use bit torrents.
in the flash hacks check attachments
Ok, a recipe:
- imports up
- inventories up
- retail sales up
Can you smell what the Rock is cooking!
Hey y’all – had fun this week!
Phil,
you mentioned UUP was above BB’s
the band settings and time frame am using tell me UUp has yet to hit upper bands. it has until 22.91-23.10
would love to know your time frame and settings
K,
You sneaky, sneaky.
K,
You sneaky, sneaky.
4Q 08 with 4Q 09 of K’s business hourly-charge has gone up 90%
less time more demand = higher cost right? talk about the invisible hand.
K….schwab charts…boll band 20,2,2
George: SRS@ $35.69!!!! I’m getting an ask of 8.14.
K…look at QUOTE.com live charts …..shows the same thing
i’m more long term so am using 100,2
K …daily charts
100,2 at 4hr intervals. just to clarify
use 100,2 in daily and you’ll see in the beginning of november where it stalled. in the middle band it acted as resistance. next one at 22.8 it seems
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p02062659112
im done with this blog!
it told me i was posting too quickly when i was posting 20+ mins later.
I have just received confirmation from a very credible Congressional source that the bill to audit the Federal Reserve is included in the House financial reform legislation which passed today.
The effort to audit the Fed – supported by 79% of the American people – is gaining traction.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/12/guest-post-house-passes-bill-to-audit-the-fed.html
Well, K, you look like you are on quite a roll there…5 in a row. Halfway to a perfect game in bowling…
It will be interesting to see if the following plays out next week:
a) the bond vigilantes are back and forcing the Fed’s hand by moving market interest rates on the 10 and 30 year up
b) if the stock market-dollar correlation is dead
c) if max pain in options plays out next week, given that there are some interesting places for some ETF’s to go from where they are.
d) if the GLD Fib level of $106.88 holds up (max pain was $107, FYI) to give support.
3 sheep counted tonight
K,
I had the same problem with the posting error.
glad to not be the only one. but i’m seriously considering bunching up the useful links at end of day and making a blog post then reviewing again on the weekend. lol
it would help me with my club for the soon to be president and also with my own trading.
George,
have you had a chance to check out what i sent?
K,
When you become President….what changes
will you make?
K,
Yes, I have checked out those links.
Three sheep better than none.
K for President!
Paula,
What are your pro-traders up to now; are they still squeezing the shorts? Seems to be popular the past year.
Paula,
right now we are 96% invested and we’re just spread all around.
when i become president i want to allocate no more than 3% per sector ETF just to have some exposure (3*9 = 27% to those ETF’s) + 30% cash = 60
the other 40% i want to allocate to individual picks that will be researched and pitched by the group.
I will also follow my rule of cut losses short and double up on winners.
The fund am taking over is a long only fund where we can’t hedge in any way so i believe cash is the only hedge I could make unless I’m wrong?
any suggestions?
another idea instead of 30% in different sectors would be buy 25% in SPY ?
Above 10235 the year-end rally to new highs is intact says EW. Levels to watch 1120/5-1105-1085-1060/70 on the ES.
I agree Yerk with your EW and levels. After the first of the year, I’d put in a new level closer to 1130 to 1150 that will be the ultimate climax top of this wave II. Then look out below.