Bear Market Just Getting Warmed Up?
Stocks are way over-priced. Sound crazy? Read this.
Greenspan’s Bug
Alan Greenspan told Congress today that he had found a bug in his world view. Ostensibly, this bug caused him to do crazy things back in 2003. He didn’t mention exactly what the glitch was. I wonder what it could be?
Market Prefers Its Head in the Sand
Every time CNBC put the congressional hearings on today, the market fell. When they cut away, it bounced back. I don’t believe that the market hates Bernanke, Paulson, or President Bush, but rather, it hates being reminded of reality.
For example, whenever Bernanke speaks, he feels compelled to give an objective assessment of the situation. The assessment is, of course, dire.
The market is trying not to hear that.
The market wants to hear how fabulously cheap stocks are and what a fantastic historical opportunity this is to make the buys of a lifetime. Whether or not that is true, it is all that the market wants to hear. Any content on CNBC that contradicts that is likely to trigger selling.
Momentum?
The market closed Thursday with a dramatic surge of buying, and is still a bit oversold short term. Normally, it would follow through with more buying Friday morning, but these are not normal times. Various things are blowing up around the world again, such as Samsung, so who knows what the market will do Friday?
Note: semiconductor chips, such as Samsung makes, are a good tell on the global economy because they go into just about every consumer product these days.
Watch the comments for updates throughout the day.
And by crash, I mean something like a down 1000 DOW day. A mere several hundred points is sort of a normal day now.
OPEC slashing daily production of oil 1.5 million MORE barrels per day on top of the 500,000 last week.
I think we should slash our production of beans to them to match their cut.
Oil for beans, anyone?
thinking the only postion i will carry over weekend is TIP. R funds holding market up ? many end their yr. 10-31 , but then hedge funds end redemptions end of mth….i need to stop thinking 4 a couple days
Is SDS losing its 15 minute advantage? Or are De Boyz letting enough bulls into the corral for slaughter?
If SDS creeps down to the 15 minute 36MA, I’ll be ready to back up the truck on the inverse if it allows.
Average guy;
You’re going to fry your brain thinking about all that stuff. All I worry about is whether price is moving up or down.
Simple mind… simple pleasures.
I think I’ll send the CEO of BBT a box of chok-lutt.
OK, SDS on that 15 minute 36MA line… the saga continues…
We used to check bank failures every Friday. Just to confirm our short positions. Now, which country will fail this weekend?
OK. If SDS 1 minute pulls back to 36MA, another opportunity to get in again if it lets us.
Often, it will bounce of the 9MA.
Nice move off that MA well see if it has more juice.
De Boyz are so predictable. They may as well drop notice of intents from a C-130.
BBT setting up soon. could be. worth watching
I gotta hush… before I do, I won’t get out of SDS until 1 minute 9MA crosses 36MA. Gonna try that.
Well,,, that is NOT a good exit strategy (9MA xing 36MA). I only got half the profits vs using my normal exit.
As Dr. Phil sez – “how’s that working for ya’”? Not too good!
The good news is I did jump into SSO.
I missed the BBT first move.
P.S. SSO still not through with the 15 min 36MA. Has potential for more bounces to come. Going for $117.50? I’m betting $120.
Thanks for all the tips! I’ve been reading.
Larry, how about a country the average investor has trouble finding on a map. Latvia? Other good candidates will be Estonia, Lithuania, Croatia, Belarus, etc.
Hedge funds might come in early. I gots my clippers ready.
Market orders coming in on both sides now. TNX still in the green. GO SSO.
On SSO’s targets, I mean IF it goes up.
Shoot… I mean SDS… upside target $117 to $120. If it gets pushed.
I’m buying SSO while typing about SDS. DUH
Hi Missy;
I’m gonna hush, I’m becoming a blog hog.
OMGosh, SDS is close to losing 15 minute.
TNX = 1.67
TNX +1.67
Coming up strong SDS support.
The Q’s just made a run at the morning’s high with an explosion of volume but got beaten back. The bulls are feisty, so maybe they will try it again later.
Lot of stochastics lined up with SSO. Hedges could kill that though.
Two stos out of 4 are trending up.
If we have a green finish, I’ll eat all of my peanuts in one gulp.
SDS sitting on 30min 36MA support.
The rally attempt looks like its starting to fizzle.
It did well though, if the hedge funds were selling.
SDS 5 minute bear flag?
time for the daily short covering rally – oh they got burned today… It looks like we have been following a triangle at the s&p for the last two hours – if we follow it through we’ll close about 880ish . it’s all gambling, anyway
Today’s intra-day rally can be seen as a failed throw-back rally where SPY was trying to regain the lower line of the triangle on its daily chart. While the action looks strong, this may be SPY’s last hurrah before drifting lower.
3 more minutes I stop trading. Watch me miss a bigun’.
I wish Charlie was here to Jump on ICE.
David,
If you’re out there… The Q’s made a substantially lower low today. How does the QQQQ daily chart fit with a butterfly pattern?
Matt
George, get the peanuts ready
SPY wants to rally, but the Naz is being a boat anchor again.
Yerk;
OH, NO! It’s a brand new jar!
Strong double bottom for SDS, doubt if it will turn over here.
I just added to my shorts. What are the chances that anything good will happen over the weekend?
I recently added pretzels to my repertoire of snacks.
SDS luvs that 30min 36MA support.
Bummer, what a nice SDS late-minute rally.
Don’t tell me George, while I was lmao about your peanut comment I missed the perfect set up for SDS entry last 7 minutes
Thanks for all your real time posts!
Short up to my ass ,need a black Monday
The market went off a cliff at 3:53pm. S&P futures dropped 24 points (on the heaviest volume of the day). That’s more than 3 points per minute. Kept falling till the close at 4:15pm too – another 5 points. I didn’t cover any of my shorts.
A few more minutes of trading and Sherry would have had her rainbow day.
Matt, pretty much all you could possibly have to worry about is a rate cut. I don’t think it will happen yet, though. Had we crashed today and ended up down over 8% maybe, but they will want to make that last shot count. Not that it will win them the war.
I’m hoping for a gap up on Monday to short into, but who knows, anymore. Can’t say I saw the drop this morning coming, that’s for sure.
George,
You got it right at 10:03am when you thought today would be a gap-fill day. Nice call.
Matt
towelie,
Bernanke is trying really hard to not do “The Greenspan Thing” and take rates down to 1%. They will have to drag him kicking and screaming. I’m sure that he doesn’t want to be dragged in front of a congressional hearing in 2013 to answer for blowing up another bubble like Greenspan was yesterday. But once the -200k jobs bombs start dropping, Bernanke will probably have to cut some more or not get re-appointed by the next prez.
Matt
Shaishen;
Me too. I hated that. I stop trading at 4:50. LOL
Uups – inflation expectations on the 10y horizon are almost gone… Three more days at the current speed to be exact.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGGBE10%3AIND
I mean I stop trading at 3:50. I should have gotten SDS and held it over the weekend.
The gold sector turned decisively today.
Stocks should follow shortly.
Once the inredibly overbought and overvalued dollar corrects look for a huge rally in the gold sector and a decent (10-15%) bounce in the broad market.
Crimson,maybe after the 1st of the month
[...] On Friday, I explained why the market didn’t like hearing Bernanke, Paulson, or President Bush speaking on CNBC. So far this week, I haven’t seen one second of Bernanke, Paulson, or Bush on CNBC – and the market has rallied. [...]