V.I.B. in the Works
I am still working on the post for the next box. This will be a V.I.B – very important box, so I need to make a few more charts to go with it before it is ready.
The market never just sails out the top of these boxes; it’s usually a weeks-long ordeal. But, if by chance, the market breaks out of the Box of Beer today, the first resistance level in the V.I.B is 1170.60. So, the first hurdle is the top of the B.O.B. at 1155.52, and the second hurdle is the first level of the V.I.B. at 1170.60.
Note: V.I.B. is not the name of the new box, and nobody has guessed it yet.
A Million New Jobs
I have added a new page to the public section of The Daily Jobs Update with information about the massive hiring for the 2010 census.
String,
sorry to see texans lose.
they fought back big time
Bored with boxes. Let’s play Chutes and Ladders OR Mousetrap!
6 am
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 82.38 -0.28 -0.34
Natural Gas 5.806 0.000 0.00
Corn 417.5 -4.25 -1.02
Soybeans 1026.0 -33.0 -3.22
30yr Bond 115.09375 -0.1875 -0.16
10yr Note 115.84375 -0.125 -0.11
NY Gold 1122.2 -11.5 -1.01
NY Silver 18.085 -0.26 -1.42
Emini S&P 1138.5 +1.00 +0.09
Emini Nasdaq 1879.5 +2.0 +0.11
Emini Dow 10553 +8 +0.08
Obama is giving a economic news conference at 2:40. I’m guessing he wouldn’t do that if jobs were negative.
Thanks After.
Futes up before the report. Hmmm, reverse psychology? The past few reports have been a reversal to the downside.
Nice to just be able to just “go with the flow” and not worry about what will the market reaction will be.
BBT has gone from $25.25 to a high of $28 in the past 5 days.
How does the $TRIN from Thursday finish at 1.06, and the market made up 10 S&P points from the 1131 low? I thought a TRIN above 1 was bearish?!?
K
With Colt we would have been #1 again. Oh well, we take the hand that is dealt us!
String
Stringm,
That’s why good food is important, at least something is enjoyable.
George,
Sorry. Ran out of time. Only had time to
stir in Nov. corrections…but some experts
felt that I still gave a good report.
The full sto (10,9,9) on the daily 1 year
chart is getting ready to turn down…when
this has happened in the past corrections
lasted about 4 weeks.
I guess you can call that SPY gap closed. Now where to?
Let’s play Chutes to 1131.
SOLD all TBT for 51c gain
Julie,
Nice going. You cook some mean books! I’ll check out the “full” stochstic. I haven’t use that one for years.
Thanks
2th fixer…i posted last week that i wanted to add tbt near 49 and fell asleep at the switch
SPY should be going up faster with all of the bad news.
I swanee, the tradebots are looking for stochastic bottoms. Two time frames is good, three is great(er). Very consistent.
notes – CAL, short still underwater but CAL is down today, covering @ 19.99
SC.to – added back short @ 44.80
hqd.to – added a bit, should theoretically stop myself out if ndx not south of 1870 but still stubborness reigns…
TLT, down a bit, still holding
FXP with calls sold, about neutral today…
Here’s my 5min SPY mock-up.
http://i46.tinypic.com/2qx2wd1.jpg
Moody’s Quietly On The Lookout For Civil War And Signs Of Social Collapse
In recent months, some of the brightest minds at Moody’s rating agency have been mulling a fascinating question: should they introduce a formal rating of “social cohesion” into sovereign debt indices, when they judge whether a government is likely to default on its debt – or not?
So far, neither Moody’s nor any other agency has actually done this, after all it is pretty hard to feed a specific “cohesion” number into any model.
see you all tonight when i count sovereign sheep. I want to herd a dozen this time around
k,
I guess you could say “their not in the mood”.
“they’re” not in the mood. whatever… tryin’ to trade here…
SKF nearing its 15min 36MA resistance.
String,
Don’t be afraid to play the TMAR game…
…take money and run…
Julie
I have no problem at all running with money.
String
No major turn in the Bradley until 3/1/09
SRS made a 9/36/15 cross.
Looking for SKF to break one way or the other at this 15min 36MA resistance.
Bradley says multi-month major wave C
down starts 3/1/09.
covered CAL short @ 19.99, relieved, may reenter but higher…a buck higher, maybe ?
URE made a great 9/36/15 trade yesterday, now it’s SRS’ turn.
Tres Cruzar on SKF yesterday and continuing today.
Inverse lower than whale poop so had to float to the top eventually.
Hug them inverses until the next volley.
K,
Might see you tonight. I cooked all night…
am going to bed now.
Not out of the green shoot woods: SPY is still above its 36MA on the 15min and higher although the 15min MACD is negative. Still posible for a surge topside, depending upon the 1 and 5min.
Box of Inchworms.
That’s what’s going on now. Looks like SPY peaks are being sold. One of the bottoms may catch on fire.
Wow, SDS came .01c from making an equal low on that last SPY move up. One more cycle down should tell its fate.
TOPS on SKF. Could cause BBT to gain a little, it’s been down all day. Waiting on a Tres Cruzar.
SPY resting on 15min 36MA support. Ironically, that’s the 36MA – could be the 50MA too, I haven’t checked.
Box of complacency.
Good one Jim.
My current 5min pattern:
http://i47.tinypic.com/10coin9.jpg
I hope this isn’t a bull trap.
At $1144, waiting for $1155.
BBT finally got goos’ed. A rising tied and all that…
Sucker was building all day.
Beginning of Phil’s parabolic move up.
“tide”, not tied… maybe tied is more appropriate!
A Box of Tide. You know, bubbles float upward…
Jim, So far, complacency has paid off.
George, had small success today on the scalping front. Remember, I’m a toddler when it comes to this, but I made two successful trades and NO losers. Yeah! It felt good to actually take a few $$$ (no commas, sorry) OUT of the market today instead of contributing?
Phil, sorry to hear that you fell asleep at the switch on TBT. I’ve got my alerts set in Chuck’s software to let me know when my 200 shares of TBT hits my target. Pretty soon, it’ll actually be turned into a conditional order to sell once it gets within a buck. I’ve also got an alert looking for a TLT buy target, but no order attached at this point.
Sold half my DRYS at $6.76 (cost basis: $5.95) when it hit the top of the triangle and retreated. The puts are still WAY overpriced (implied volatility of 60!) so I have passed on them as protection on the remainder of the position (they would actually cost more than I’ve made on the trade so far–so much for “cheap” protection all the traders are hyping).
Used some of the DRYS proceeds to pick up small position in VXX at $29.55.
The S&P 500 has an RSI above 70. Looking for a pull back of some kind with my small/long term QID, SDS positions. Will we get a rare Monday morning decline?
Have a great weekend all. Thanks again Matt for the place to gather!
Another box name: Box of Bubbles. Hope nobody has guess that yet.
2thfixr,
Congrats on the scalps! Lately, I’ve been doing more 5 and 15min scalps.
I pay my workers every Friday so I get interruped often and distracted somewhat. So today I did mainly 15min. Worked out good on some and others haven’t triggered yet. But, takes less watching.
Maybe it’s the “Box Tops” give me a ticket for an aeroplane! Remember them George. Hey where has Mitch been?
String
we need a box of Disbelief
bam bam bam
http://www.businessinsider.com/we-didnt-lose-85000-jobs-we-lost-1-million-2010-1
Box of Fraud / Box of Theft – either would do quite nicely.
Thanks George. Couldn’t have learned it without you. I feel like I’m starting to get the hang of it, and can recognize setups, even if I can’t trade them. Once I put myself in the right frame of mind looking for 10 cents rather than 20 cents, that helped a lot!
If you follow Daneric, be sure to check out his charts over the weekend. Many interesting things in there.
http://www.businessinsider.com/tim-geithner-will-be-fired-after-the-november-elections-2010-1
In 2006, Donald Rumsfeld resigned as Defense Secretary just one day after the midterm elections. George Bush sung his praises when it was announced but behind the scenes it was Bush who made the decision that Rumsfeld had to go. That is the very likely what will happen to Geithner in November of this year.
Any way you look at it, 40% of the unemployed, or 4% of the workforce, a record number of people, or 6.1 million, are now unemployed for over 27 weeks. In November this number was 5.9 million, and a year ago it was a meager 2.5 million. Green shoots.
some interesting charts and also some “friday funnies”
http://caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=314
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
Changes and comments from surferdude808:
The Unofficial Problem Bank List changed by a net of one institution this week to 576 with assets of $304.8 billion.
Additions include North Valley Bank, Redding, CA ($910 million); First Trade Union Bank, Boston, MA ($690 million); Wheatland Bank, Naperville, IL ($481 million); and Decatur First Bank, Decatur, GA ($241 million).
if a boston bank is involved then WOW! please gimme some greenshoots asap
well i’ll be damned as to why no banks have failed in 3 weeks.