Friday’s Trading – 2/27/09

I’m posting this early because I probably won’t have time to write anything until Friday morning.

250 Responses to “Friday’s Trading – 2/27/09”

  1. admin says:

    jg,

    Yes, that is what Pretcher said on CNBC. He said that he had been short for 800 SPX points and he was now satisfied with that trade, and is looking for other opportunities. He talked about metals, bonds, and more, but I didn’t catch it all.

    Matt

  2. admin says:

    Pretcher didn’t call a bottom though. He said that the market might drift down a little more, but has lost downside momentum, and he gave the impression that it wasn’t worth playing on the short side anymore.

  3. Sherry says:

    Dave-
    I had a fantastic trading day. Hope you did
    also. Have a great weekend

  4. Charlie says:

    Those are mighty good gains K. I’m been a bit more aggressive shorting whenever I can so I think I’m up around 20% these last 2 weeks. :)

  5. admin says:

    The SPX’s exact intra-day low prior to today was 741.02, so the bulls can win a small moral victory by closing above that number.

  6. George says:

    I’m going to break my rule and wait till BBT gives me these last few dimes.

  7. Charlie says:

    If they rescue 740, the talking heads will say that this was a glorious day and that support held!!

    Hay!!! we didn’t fall through the pit of doom..!!

  8. dave says:

    JG,

    apparently he interviewed with Bloomberg BEFORE the opening on Tues. Altho the mkt opened up on Tues, the rally was choppy til Bernanke.

    I don’t think Prechter has as much influence as either he or the media would like to claim. His “calling the top” in 07 came two months early.

    I wonder if we’ll see Prechter ads on CNBC. Many of their regular guests like Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian are regular advertisers.

  9. junglegirl says:

    Right now my favorite chart is the 5d 10 min VIX.

  10. dave says:

    Sherry,

    You too. Table #1 at the Russian Tea Room.

  11. George says:

    Whew, that inverse was “kickin'” today.

  12. admin says:

    Dillon Ratigan just said that it was “an impressive day for US stocks.” I think GE must be putting something in the water at CNBC.

  13. JO says:

    back for a bit longer..sp on verge of closing below 741..i think that would lead to a final sell off mon or tues before any MOAR..on a long term basis, the monthly close will, if held under 741, provide one more clue that we are indeed headed for lower levels at some point in the next 2 yrs. I subscribe to EWI and prechter did say he thinks market will go lower a little more but that most selling is done for now and a MOAR may be in the offing..he is bearish on LT bonds and GOLD/Silver..
    JO

  14. junglegirl says:

    Warning: the SGA stays on. I’ll post when I turn it off.

  15. JO says:

    sp closing at/about 735…rack that one up as a win for long term bears..Monday will be interesting

  16. Sherry says:

    Jo-
    You’re getting your closing wish…SPX under
    736. What’s your next wish?

  17. admin says:

    The IWM finished the day with a bullish inverted hammer candle. However, SPY, QQQQ, and XLF all have gravestone candles. I’m not sure what to make of it, but I think the market will need to advance at least a couple of points on Monday to have a shot at a reversal.

  18. Yerk says:

    Sweet close – now how’s that candle called?

  19. dave says:

    George,

    This seems like a real oddity. There’s is a down gap in SPX from yesterday, but not SPY. Normally, it’s much harder for a cash index to gap.

  20. K says:

    what I LOVE is TNX daily LOL. it is at the middle line of bollinger 100 should be a ton of fun to see people react in the next week

  21. Yerk says:

    Matt – our posts came in out of sequence ;-)

  22. towelie says:

    I guess there are still a lot of people out there who think this is the bottom and want to get in before we pop back up…gotta love CNBC talking about a rally on a down day. I guess we closed just above the low for the day…not much of a victory.

  23. Yerk says:

    Will the end-of-month declines stop after mark-to-market is suspended?

    The treasury pocketed a couple of billions this week. And it will get very hungry during the year. Bulls beware – Uncle Sam wants your money.

  24. Hank says:

    SPY took out the low in AH

  25. K says:

    nice newbie nice i mean Hank :P

  26. MKB says:

    Matt,

    Nice work today and for February. I have a position in BBT. I picked up yesterday and last week with my first trailing stop purchase. I wish I would have been able to get long SSO – too many lines out and no extra fishing poles. Probably a good thing since JG is having so much fun with the switches lately.

  27. MKB says:

    K,

    Good return there – have a night out – maybe some rain but still 55 deg. where you are! Did you see that Ali/Frazier fight I put on earlier. “Thrilla in Manilla.”

  28. Yerk says:

    The New York Stock Exchange today announced it will suspend its rule of delisting companies whose share price falls below $1. So they can stay in the dow as well.

  29. K says:

    thanks MKB i will make a blog post about February as I have also earned bragging rights for the month FINALLY!!! :)

  30. K says:

    oh god yerk!!! thats terrible.

  31. K says:

    george look at that BBT link i gave ya from stockcharts :P

    what a perfect reversal off the averages and stuff i put there. :P

    I gotta say february 2009 has been my best month yet in and out of the financial world.

    Matt and Company thanks again and I want to try to take a break this weekend so I will check back with you Sunday night.

  32. Charlie says:

    Hey guys,

    I know a bunch of you are in BBT.. what dividend does it pay cause it seems to have some of you guys excited about it.

  33. MKB says:

    BBT:

    0.47 (5/1/09)
    Declared QRTR Div
    Declared Dividend

    11.66%
    Yield
    X date 4/7/2009

    Charlie:

    Southeast bank with some FL exposure. Underwriting was decent but I don’t think any bank but JPMorgan (Hartford too, but not a bank) made assumtions of 10-12% unemployment 40% drop in housing prices.

  34. towelie says:

    A nice article on people playing with things they don’t understand:

    http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant

  35. Hank says:

    @ JG, I acted on my 10:55 post and made some cash.

  36. Charlie says:

    Hmm.. I guess it is a matter of time before BBT needs to lower it’s dividend then huh? Thanks for the info MKB :)

  37. MKB says:

    Hey Charlie Stringm is looking into showing us how to drop in on a divvy like a ninja. If the divvy on BBT is cut it should only be in 1/3s. I think it’s fine for now. Geithner has not shown his hand yet with respect to the Senators banks – we’ll see

  38. K says:

    MKB here you go :P

    Date of record: This date is also known as “ex-dividend” date. It is the day upon which the stockholders of record are entitled to the upcoming dividend payment. According to Barron’s, a stock will usually begin trading ex-dividend or ex-rights the fourth business day before the payment date. In other words, only the owners of the shares on or before that date will receive the dividend. If you purchased shares of Coca-Cola after the ex-dividend date, you would not receive its upcoming dividend payment; the investor from whom you purchased your shares would.

    basically buy 4 days before ex-dividend date. hold on until that day. sell the next day and still get dividend when pay day comes

    -NINJA in training (K)

  39. MKB says:

    K,

    Thx! Are you at the least kickin’ it downtown?

  40. K says:

    Nah not tonight MKB. :)
    I think i’ll just watch a movie or 2 and get some good rest :)

  41. MKB says:

    Tell me about it – rewarding times but it’s not always easy juggling everything.

    Later K, everyone.

  42. MKB says:

    Ok, I’ll go in a second . .

    Larry Kudlow is torpedoing this segment of CNBC about the Obama tax policies. Kudlow is fighting for his legacy here. Dylan said it all too early, “times are a changin”

  43. K says:

    here is the sad rocky news video
    http://www.rockymountainnews.com/

  44. dave says:

    JG, phil,

    Counting from early January it’s very obvious that we’re in a 3rd wave following a multi-week flat consolidation — perhaps, just perhaps, too obvious.

    Sometimes, when more apparent wave counts occur relatively late (in a 5th wave of a higher degree) after obvious consolidations such as late January to early Feb they suck in a lot traders believing that a 4th & 5th wave lay ahead.

    I am not predicting this by any means; but just to be prepared. What if we didn’t have a similar 4th wave consolidation, but started to rally instead (not talking about immediately from Monday’s opening). Let’s say to SPX 845/850.

    What would be the EW scenario that would prepare us for such & not leave us flat-footed ?

    Btw, the NY Comp (NYA) IMO gives a more accurate comparison to the late 2002 bottom than either DJIA or S&P500 because the NYA is less affected by energy & financials.

    Also, current Nasdaq A/D & A/D volume don’t seem befitting a 3rd wave (of a minor 5).

    Regards

  45. K says:

    Tomorrow morning at 8AM ET, the Buffett letter to investors will be released

    should be interesting (and so far for relaxing :( )

  46. dave says:

    JG, phil,

    Also, remember what happened when we reached the 3 of 3 of 5 late Mon/ early Tues. What should have been the sweet spot, the fulcrum was met with a fierce throwback rally.

  47. Yerk says:

    dave, interesting… Vix pretty low for a period in which EW suggest maximum downdraft.

    for the bbt fanclub – don’t know if it applies, it shows how much mark-to-hot air is in the banking system. Get the FAS 107 form… http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aw9VCSmMCu7I&refer=home [Of course you can assume, all loans will heal themselves and happy customers will repay the bank at maturity eg ignore the gap… You can rally the stock until then, too]

    Interesting view. Bankruptcies have not really get going, but they will:
    http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/02/26/bill-gross-the-747-billion-bond-man-declares-the-death-of-equ/

  48. dave says:

    Yerk,

    not only that, but when the mkt indices was approaching lows VIX wasn’t even close to threatening its downtrend line.

    I should have added to above posts: Ever bought an obvious 3rd wave only to find out soon that there was no 4th wave ahead ?

  49. George says:

    Ex-Dividend date:

    Recall that the stock price will drop (open lower) the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date.

  50. Larry says:

    Dangerous central planners in action.

    F.A. Hayek must be rolling in his grave.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ao67RjoFDnEI&refer=home