I’m posting this early because I probably won’t have time to write anything until Friday morning.
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Sherry,
meant to write “I always knew that YOU had a source inside the NY AG’s office”
re: “hearing things” let me know when you’re channeling Jesse Livermore
C is getting its butt kicked all by itself – UYG will be anchored by that jewel.
Pandit: TCE not important, we will pay U.S. bukoo dividend on their preferred shares.
Pandit (one month later): TCE important; we will not pay a dividend.
Dave-
Will let you know when Jesse contacts me.
phil,
Clint was born in Baghdad-by-the-Bay, too
Jo-
If you are into trading books, I suggest you
buy the books from folks who trade the
market. There are a lot of books by folks
who never traded the market.
sherry … re: hearing things………..auditory hallucinations are a hallmark of paranoid schizophrenia…. lol
I think I will hold my SKF through the weekend LMAO check when I bought
K Says:
February 26th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
skf closed their gap on the 17th so i buy i buy i buy
looky time (=153
)
so UYG shows love today maybe but SKF Kills so to speak lol.
Dave-
Jesse just told me to never trade silver
again until I consult with you.
Sherry,
i know that you get your inside info in style, too, over a table at http://www.russiantearoomnyc.com/subindex.php?p=gallery&id=
or http://www.tavernonthegreen.com/tavern_entrance.asp?headinfo=view&subhead=entrance
junglegirl,
This morning had the shape of a bear flag, but there was too much volume.
Matt
I took profits on my shorts earlier, but am looking to reload if SPY can fill this morning’s gap.
Too many off-topic comments today.
Phil-
THANKS!!! for the analysis. I’m on my way
to my new doctor. I got rid of my last
doctor because she was more interested
in trading tips than she was in treating
me (was trading the market during every
visit). Will call her and tell her to hook up
with you.
matt……sorry about off topic……last one……………..dave….just was at tavern on the green for my sister in laws wedding a few months ago
Matt:
Is my 11:36 on topic? Ms. Market confused about C.
I’m going to be right there with you Matt. Going to load up on FAZ/SRS/SPY Puts if the morning gap gets filled or close enough to it. Depends on volume post lunch time.
Matt, what time-frame(s) do you like for judging volume of the potential bear flags like this morning? TIA.
Working toward the gap, JG.
Still lots of sellers. Each little green stick gets knocked back down quickly.
SSO/SPY has been in the 5min up-channel since the gap-down open. Getting a little toppy, but not broken yet.
I noticed that too George. The motive of the last few waves was up, this morning was a curve? What’s the true motive of the SPY??
SPY is doing okay. It needs to bounce off its 1min 36MA support to continue.
The 38 Fib (from 780 down to 734.5) sits inside gap-fill such that closing the gap will spike this fib.
JungleGirl,
Around 10:00 and 10:25, SPY had high-volume surges. Of course, it is a judgment call, but to play a bear flag, I like to see volume steadily diminish as prices move up.
Matt
BBT looks like it is going to bust out to the upside on the 5min. Previous attempts have been knocked down.
“If” SPY fills todays gap does it continue the upward motive of the past week?
spx working that gap off pretty fast. Impressive ..but starting to lose steam. stoch x on the 10 min chart. Perhaps we fall back towards the 74.40 level, form a neck and a right shoulder by the close for a nice setup on Mon.
Possible ascending wedge forming SPX 10 min. It’s on the lower wedge line right now. One more spurt up and then collapse for a perfect wedge?
JungleGirl,
I like the wedge. SPY volume is declining inside of it.
Matt
BBT barely eeked over that 5min. Holding, but looks weak.
Matt,
You were correct yesterday about the market throwing sand in the eyes of the shorts, thereby keeping them uneasy about getting too short on the close yesterday.
Aw, I should never underestimate BBT. Go, puppy.
Hi JG, where do you see the sp going today if the wedge follows typical pattern ? Below 741 ?
MKB,
I would call the past week corrective, not motive. Within the motive wave (pointed down) there are two corrective waves (pointed up). The up waves are corrective in the bear move lower.
Hi JG, where do you see the sp going today if the wedge follows typical pattern ? Below 741 ?
JO
nasdaq outperforming ..maybe a warning sign for a moar in the next few hours or next few trading days
JO, yes, if indeed it does fall out of the wedge.
JG:
I thought I’d get you going! LOL. I did preface the statement earlier with today being a “curve.” Corrective vs. Motive – that’s why they play the game – or I’ll take my marblesand go home.
Uh oooo. Engulfing candle!!
Sorry JG! Turn that thing off!
wedge looks like it will break soon..seems to me below 74.50 on spy and very low/declining volume on the weak rise in last few hours confirm high chance of break and decline below 741 by 4 today…i am not good with patterns but am i on the right track ?
Jo-
SPX made a low at 734.52. The question is
was that the end of the fractal 3???
George – I hope you drug those chips off.
if it is sherry, then it would lead to a wave 4 up for next few hours and maybe few days ?
JO
Shoot, had to switch to SKF
I have a feeling I’m going to be switching all day.
george you are betting on a decline in xlf and spy into close ?
C flirting with daily low.
JO,
XLF has a nice positive divergence on the 60min, so if I had to guess, I’d say it would be up.
FYIW, I’m terrible at predicting. I just go with the price movement at any given time.
that volume is awfully weak in the wedge..rise in spy has been on pretty light volume..but nasdaq holding tight..who thinks wedge will break and lead to nasty decline into close ?..many will sell into close as they do not want to be long into a weekend
junglegirl,
Congratulations on your rising wedge. It just snapped like a twig.
Matt
sp 741 …say hello here we are !!!
The SPY must have a headache from the repeated blows at 75.3x
WSJ HEADLINE JUST OUT – GE TO CUT DIV TO 10C FROM 31 C…possible catalyst for nasty break of wedge…how long before AAA rating is cut as it should have been a long time ago ..it should be named GE BANK
When you’re on the edge of a wedge you gotta hedge. (Johnny Cochran)
JO,
See what I mean? Just do the opposite of my predictions and you’ll do okay.
The inverse bounced off their 5min MACD zero line causing that move.
hang on george..you still might be right..seems fishy that the GE news comes out around 1:30 and now, headlines come out about some Plosser guy, I think he is a Fed voting member but will check this..making comments that publicly question his boss and Fed…anyway, this could be an attempt to make market go down, trap more bears, and then around 3:30 PPT / bulls could execute bears before the weekend..timing of “news” on GE seems strange. you might still be right at 4
JO
Just scalped FAZ for another $1.50.
Jo-
Selling pressure must pick-up. You have
bulls buying the bottom.
Dave-
Will answer your question when you, I, and
Jesse get together.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkOQW-Y-PYA
I love the taste of my own blood!
JG, are you convinced the wedge is broken and that we will decline into close below 741…JO
SPY 60min Double bottom with stochastic and MACD positive divergence.
Popped back up in a hurry, no? So now it’s testing the lower wedge line from below, and also could be forming a mini-complex H&S on the 1, 5 min. with RS now under construction? Get the idea I want more down action?
And…so we get more upside.
Charlie – WTG!!!
JO,
It’s just what I see happening with the charts. I didn’t even know about divergences until Matt pointed them out. Some work out and some don’t. But if they pop up a lot, there’s more chance of them working. I don’t use them to trade or front-run, but it is kinda nice to know what “could” happen.
JO,
My best indicator is the 15min. It shows daily direction. At times it can change throughout the day, but it gives a good hedge on the lower time frames. We just had a big dip, but the 15min burped and that was it. Just noise, but nice since that’s what we need to trade – those dips.
Pretty good day for me today. Collectively $11.50 on FAZ via 2 trades
Hey George,
what are you trading right now? SSO, BBT? UYG?
Morning GAP almost filled!!
Charlie, I’ve traded all except UYG. It’s moving sideways too much. All the inverse too, except for QID… I missed that one.
I need another monitor.
lol George.. you have like 6 now? All that radiation can’t be good for you
I’m staying short til the Q’s break $28 with vol.
Everyone wants that rally, and with a bounce off the bottom today, the contrarian is we go back down under 740 by COB. Then we rally!
Just a thought as I ponder what to have for lunch..
Charlie, take a look at UYG. Do you think that gap was filled? I can’t tell, looks like it spiked up on my charts.
Charlie, I’ve noticed more of my hair is falling out.
Hey George, UYG spiked up this morning and missed the GAP by 6 cents.. so I am not sure if that is considered a gap fill or not. I actually tend to look at XLF more for gaps as funny things can occur for those 2x ETFs and the moves they make.
Based on XLF.. I would say that the gap down in financials has not been filled yet.
dave, sherry have a great weekend!
Charlie;
Thanks, BBT filled its gap, but I don’t think financials overall did. That means UYG will set up juicy.
SPY fell short of filling its gap, so I reckon there were a lot of traders waiting to sell there.
SRS postive. Might be the catalyst for further down action.
A lot of people were watching FAZ waiting for a pull back to get in. Quite a run it made from $58 – almost $63. I missed and was waiting for entry too.
Phil-
Thanks…you too.
Jo-
If you want the SPX to follow your plan, you
have to find a way to stop the bulls from
buying the bottom.
Close to double tops on inverse 1min.
sherry, i was in and out on a small short position..took a pocket change in loss, but if we can at a min re-test 734…i may consider building a position (at least start to) to benefit from a multi week MOAR..there is a lot of chatter from well connected people suggesting a major change in mark to market accounting rules and/or CDS contract changes could be made suddenly in the next 2 weeks, which may provide fuel (serious fuel) to a multi week MOAR..i apperciate your insight though..we got to see both sides on any position..have a good weekend
JO
looks like we will crash into close..unless this is one hell of a bear trap they will try to squeeze in the last 15 mins
JO
I have taken large profits on my short positions and am back relaxing in cash. Not sure what the market will do here, but I’m glad that I don’t need to think about it. I have also locked in my bragging rights for the month of February.
George:
ICE good here. I’m not going but it looks decent here.
I suppose I should have stayed in longer since the internals are pointed straight down, but I’m not greedy.
Matt,
all is well. I too have locked in my position of SkF from yesterday 153 to 178. got my core UYG position still riding at 2.19 but is smaller and more upside than downside
Pretcher is on CNBC.
JG,
When is the last time you can remember seeing Prechter on CNBC ? I cannot.
Matt.. did you add to your shorts today?
nevermind.. Just read your posts that you made sickly profits for the month of Feb
People on CNBC keep complimenting the market, saying how wonderfully it is holding up.
I’ve made a solid 15% from 7th of feb till 27th.
that is AFTER comission and still a lot. most was intraday skf scalps aka (bought thursday sell friday).
dave, never. They may have asked him on because this week he apparently came out and told shorts to cover. Just like putting Buffet on display way back when.
WTG MATT and K !!!!
K,
That’s a nice three-week winning streak you’ve got going there.
Matt
For clarification, people who subscribe have said Prechter does expect more downside.
Both Pretcher and now Najarian praised “the rally” on CNBC. Like Phil mentioned yesterday, people are already embracing the rally before it materializes.