Possibilities
I took profits on my shorts Thursday and went back to cash. Like George says, get the honey and get away from the bees. But I’ve probably taken profits too early again. As you may recall, when I shorted the January 6th top, I took fat profits as the SPX fell down to 900. And that was about 100 points too early. I might be making the same mistake again, so don’t read too much into my move back to cash. I’m actually just looking for a day off from trading, though I may pop up to short Friday’s close.
If you look back at the chart, you will see that the market made a small bounce on January 8th before resuming its plunge. We could see that type of pattern again.
The futures were testing 840 after hours until Amazon’s earnings were announced. Then the shorts threw in the towel and the futes started moving up.
Don’t forget that next week is the first week of February, and the first week of the month is always treacherous because that’s when the window-dressing ends and the jobs report looms. Even though the jobs report comes out on Friday, Bloomberg will publish their survey of economists on Sunday, and the market will price-in those expectations first thing Monday morning. So, you need to think about the jobs report a week in advance.
The SPX’s false breakout above the resistance around 850 may prove to be a very serious issue because it implies a breakdown out of the range may be in the cards. If you want a short position with an eight handle, you might have to get ‘em while their hot. We just saw this phenomena a month ago. The SPX broke above the resistance at 911 on the first day of the year, but fell back below only three days later. That false breakout implied a break below the lower band of the trading range around 865-870, and the market wasted very little time doing so.
Candlestick Pattern
It’s not a perfect fit, but bulls can pin their hopes on SPY’s three-day pattern possibly being a bullish Upside Gap Three Methods. Also, the plunge in breadth Thursday may be some kind of one-day record. It usually takes a two-day panic to move breadth down from such a bullish extreme to such a bearish extreme. While I don’t regard this as bullish, the market just has to bounce after such a breath-taking crash in the internals, right? Right? Enough solace for the bulls…
Links in Comments
I came across the “links in comments” setting in WordPress and raised it from two to five. It’s used to filter out spam, however, I have the “new posters must be approved” setting turned on, so no spam bots are going to get through anyway.
George
Looks like that MOAR died a quick death!
String
SKF hit that 15min 36MA and bounced.
Sherry,
Altho i regard the move in G & S as being premature, i wouldn’t short it. I’d rather wait for a buying opportunity.
I hope that SHE is not one of the Hunt Bros.
Sherry,
When i last checked it was there & clear.
$15 more bucks and SKF will have its gap resistance.
George,
You’re going to make so much money trading those gaps that you’re going to buy the company http://www.gap.com/
Double top 5min SSO/SPY
15min, too. If it breaks through…
CNBC knocked the market down about 20 minutes ago when Gasparino reported that the “bad bank” deal was off.
Dave-
Checked the post. LOVE the house. Have
renewed the contract on your 8 new
homes. Start construction at Yellowstone
next week. dblwyo will supervise.
I had decided not to short silver…do not
like to trade a market unless I’ve paper
traded it…and made money. Did that
with OEX options…then moved to futures…
but I’m going to violate that on the U.S.
dollar index if it tests its 2005 high.
Sherry
i always prefer that mkts go down without bad news & up without good news; that way they’re less prone to reversals & they’re doing so because of supply demand factors
hehe, Is this fun, or what?
Sherry
Those hubble pictures are truly fascinating, thanks for the suggestion. Years ago I had a star gazing friend of mine visit me every new moon. I had a piece of property at the time with zero light pollution. He had this big reflector telescope I believe it was called a Dobsonian. We looked at these deep sky objects I believe he called them Messier Objects. It was neat at first, but they all ended up looking like little faint balls of cotton to me. These Hubble shots are really neat..
String
Dave-
GS tried to pump-up the market this
morning with their expected GDP loss…
knew it was less than the number they put
out…got caught in their own trap at 10 AM.
Sherry
I got some cashews last night, giving up my Jimmy Carter-type p-nuts until the salmonella goes away. I like them better, but they are substitute GOLD price-wise.
Sherry,
Dec 07 i wrote a friend that GS was way overpriced becuz Wall St thought they could walk on water
Stringm-
Agree…I love looking at them…and
everytime I do I feel a little smaller.
Sherry
George,
Try cashew butter some time
All moon gazers will like this stock related link.
http://astrocycle.net/
dave, I’ve never heard of cashew butter.
Sherry,
As i wrote that wasn’t my house, but very similar in style & probably just across Hwy 1 from me – same neighborhood – same views, etc.
Will you be the general contractor ?
Matt-
Even Treasury can’t afford $163 Trillion
right now.
Sherry
Dave-
Yes…and will give you the best view
at the 8 locations.
Sherry
Can anyone explain to me why our Government wants to create a “Bad Bank”? I mean is there a shortage ? Seems like they are late to the game to me.
I can understand those big Wall Street bonuses. They wouldn’t want to lose their talent pool. I mean losing a guy that could lose you 3-4 billion and having to hire a thumb that could only break even. Well that would be bad.
This market wants to sell off badly. Shorts won’t let it.
George,
I don’t know if they still have those home p-nut butter machines,but cashews will gunk them up. I think becuz cashews have more oil ??
There was a mall chain of places that served roasted nuts; don’t know if they’re still around due to rising product costs.
I’m thinking about mixing my own snack mix: dk choc; blueberries; & walnuts — all supposedly helathy junk
Stringm, agree. THEY (Gov Powers), just don’t get it. Sure, put limits on bailout monies, but leave the rest of the business community alone. Incremental gov. involvement is like the provervial frog in hot water.
Stringm,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emily_Litella
That’s a new word, provervial.
Sherry,
Yummy, but will have to trade more contracts
dave,
I luv healthy junk food. I’m the provervial pogie-bater.
Sherry,
INDOOR plumbing ? Hate using those poison ivy leaves !!
I thought we had weathered this little storm but perhaps not…
good bankers; bad bankers http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090130/od_nm/us_banking_dating_odd
Dave-
Try “Raw Revolution” bars. They’re great.
If stores around you do not carry them…
you can buy them on the net…by the box.
…google…raw indulgence…
Sherry
George,
It’s French – Provervence
Yummy – will have to triple contracts
Dave
How could you tell I was hard of hearing?
String
Dave-
Nothing but the best for you.
Sherry
TO EVERYONE……see the spx hourly chart??????last two hourly bars …….first aBEARISH SHOOTING STAR………next..a BULLISH HAMMER……….mr market is doing his best to get you on the wrong side of this…..be careful all……..phil
Stringm,
I can read your lips. It’s a skill that i picked working for the NE Patriots; but since they’re not in the Stupor Bowl i have to go back to trading for a living.
Sherry,
Ever long for the days when things traded in 1/4′s & 1/8′s ? Never thought i’d spend my days watching pennies.
JungleGirl,
If you are out there, blink twice.
Matt
LOLOLOLOL too, too funny
So, now I can add “Foreign Language” to my resume.
phil
I have begun drawing my own fib lines. im not home right now but ill post a link to SDS 60min chart.
my target (didnt follow through) was to get sds at 73.02 which I did then sell at 81. but I got skeptical last night when the market was hovering 850 and sold at 77.
at least I know my fib projections worked nicely
Dave-
Loved those days…not sure going
to pennies was a good move.
Sherry
George,
You already speak Southern. First time i went to NYC as a kid i was wearing a Colonel Mosby type Confedrate hat.
dave,
You have a definite advantage with your floor trading experience. I’d like to go to one one day and just watch.
Sherry,
I use to think that OEX volume was good 4 or 5000 contracts.
George,
Just go upstairs at any exchange to a clearing member. Tell them you’re interested in membership & you’d like a tour of the floor.
Strongly recommend a commodities exch; NYSE is dull by comparison.
Matt-
You’re the chart expert…
….was SPY left on an island yesterday???
Sherry
dave,
I’ll put that on my agenda this year. A tour would be great.
George
BBT under 20. I was lusting after it when it looked like it was about to bust a move on the 2 minute chart. Then bam .20 lower.
String
TNX closed +.29. Market close down? Seeing as how up is down using the “new math”.
George, it’s messy there, people shout and scream and give the impression that humans have a long way to develop further to become something decent. Didn’t like the place, neither cashews nor peanuts. I prefer cashews by the way. Keeps you on your toes, otherwise you eat more money than you earn.
Stringm,
I’ve traded it several times today. Just did. I’ve gotten ~$1 out of it today scalping. Its 5min is looking good right now.
BBT at this level is a sure thing – at least it has been in the past. As I’ve said, I’ve never lost a penny on it and that’s especially true buying on big dips.
George,
especially recommend the CBOT on a day when there’s big Treasury auction or a Fed report or the Merc when there’s a Fed report.
Dave-
Pits treated me right again…left at
15 points.
Will watch your posts for awhile…they’re
more fun than trading.
Sherry
Sherry, not enough money for a bad bank? Black Hawk Down? Ben Bernanke starring as William Garrison watching the birds go down. “We’ve just lost tarp2″
Yerk,
A friend’s little boy told his elementary school class “My daddy yells for money – all day long”
George, you can put the whip away. Dobbin knows that you’re serious.
probably rally in the last 10 mins; but i’m staying short
Yerk-
You’re telling me that $163 Trillion is
not enough. RIGHT???
Sherry
Sherry,
check’s in the mail
i am unsure what to do here so i will watch in awe
Internals are weakening. So, gun-to-head, I would bet the market goes out at the lows.
k…….me too……..best idea when unsure…..do NOTHING
dave,
ok, whips up. Just in case someone was new and wanted a stock pick.
unless something changes in next 30 minutes looks like i’ll be winning my $1 bet on TBV placed on Jan 2nd.
the bet was that if TBV goes below $2 by EOD today i win the bet $1 if otherwise my friend wins.
for the first 3-4 days it seemed to him like he was on a roll. then poof there was the “dump after the pump”
fib is telling me an 819 support for today tho
K,
bugaloo down Broadway
Sherry, no I mean Ben promised unlimited supply. If he fails now, the chopper must be broken… 160 trillion would equal a 20% haircut on the total derivatives notional. If the UK is taken out, why not… This has so gotten out of proportion.
dave
, a friend lets his 7-year old make calls on charts. He says the little one is pretty good.
i LUV being a trader
k………..its also called…………pop the top ….before we FLOP
Yerk,
7-yr olds are fearless
earlier i stated that my SDS targets were 73.02 for entry and 81.32 for exit. this chart shows the support at 72.98 but bear with me tdameritrade isnt perfect and neither are my retracements.
here is the SDS chart.
http://i41.tinypic.com/ja8j7l.gif
whoops I goofed that was from 2 days ago..
http://i44.tinypic.com/akde78.gif
whoops I goofed that was from 2 days ago..
http://i44.tinypic.com/akde78.gif
before i entered my trade
who said something about the internet being slow and laggy? the above 2 posts were thanks to that. lol
K,
sell @ those prices; they were higher
ok so how many people will crush me this weekend when we have our 2009 big bank failure? or is that for the short month of february?
in some UYG over weekend
K…… at 3 bucks it cant go down 4 dollars…..its like the middle east………theyve been fighting for 2000 years…..it must be nearly done by now right???????
K……. Q…..in the last 18 months how many weeks has uyg closed above the 20 wk average????……cc to dave
There’s something broken with the 8-handle on the dow – not much time to fix it…
Dave-
Your new homes will also be fully
furnished.
Have a great weekend.
Sherry
well phil.
i sort of followed my fib retracement on this except that was at 3.22 and it broke below in 60 min chart signaling that it could open lower. 100 shares worth in case something happens. i should get some skf too huh to hedge.
i cant answer that phil havent looked at 18 months for uyg. prolly all 18
K…….lmfao……have a wonderful weekend !!!!!!!!!
you, too, Sherry !!
HAHAHA oh you bet I will. UYG party at my house for those that by now have found it. on second thought lets use one of dave’s new homes to celebrate the rise of UYG hahaha
understand phil… this was just a small trade worth $320 over the weekend. so i’m not betting we’re recovering now after 18 months of UYG not closing above 20sma
Phil,
twice
dave…….close enough….lmfao
150 new blog posts in the blogosphere for me to skim through since 12am till now. at this rate i’ll be up to speed and tired/confused by all i stumble through each day..
and thanks to google reader trends i found out on average i skim/read through at least 250 new posts a day roughly 1.2k posts over a normal week. i cannot imagine when i do take a month vacation what i will see there when i get back. of course i will ignore all except matt’s blog
phil is 4-5 times ?
long term shorting UYG was a better trade than long SKF. Compare just the last 3 months for an eye popper!
Phil, you’re right Thrice
i was only looking at the green bars – early Oct twice & once in early May
k…….tooo late….dave already got the right answer…no prizes for you……oneyear……..regards…..the prize nazi
No soup for you then!!!! come back when the market recovers (1 year!)
thrice… This place has style