Market Factors
Bullish Factors:
1) The market always goes up.
Bearish Factors:
1) DIA has not taken out its rally high from January 19th.
2) SMH left behind an un-filled down-gap Thursday morning.
3) The #2 leading sector XME is still a good distance from its January 11th rally-high.
3) The #1 leading sector XLF has not yet topped its dramatic island-reversal rally-high from October 14th.
The SPX broke out the top of my triangle. However, if the market stays range-bound here, struggling at the rally highs, I will be watching for another triangle to form. If you look back at George’s Triangle, you will see that it formed only after several days of struggle at the highs. The moral of the story is that if the market is going to roll over here, it will likely do so after a more prolonged struggle.
Shall I Create Some Jobs?
I just got a letter from the Census Bureau saying that my Census 2010 form will be arriving soon. If I fill it out and mail it in, I will save the taxpayers some money. But if I throw it away, I will “stimulate” the economy by forcing the Census Bureau to hire somebody to come looking for me. President Obama should give me a medal for that, no?
There’s a possible big inverse HS on Copper. And Warehouse levels have started to fall.
2. Julie: Tell your mother we are listening.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#5years
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 83.14 +0.71 +0.86
Natural Gas 4.524 +0.018 +0.40
Corn 365.25 -0.25 -0.07
Soybeans 930.5 -27.5 -2.95
30yr Bond 116.56250 -0.03125 -0.03
10yr Note 116.781250 -0.093750 -0.08
NY Gold 1118.6 +10.4 +0.94
NY Silver 17.330 +0.170 +0.99
Emini S&P 1153.50 +3.00 +0.26
Emini Nasdaq 1927.00 +1.75 +0.09
Emini Dow 10633 +23 +0.22
Thanks After,
I think you’re going to make SKF a teenager today. Couldn’t happen to a better inverse.
Notice BBT closed over $30 yesterday. BOOYA.
Phil’s parabolic blow-off top in progress. (We hope).
What ever happen to JungleGirl and her call for a crash?
We had a huge upside surprise from the retail-sales report at 8:30am. Futures exploded up to 1159.50; probably blowing out every stop in the order book before dropping back a bit.
STRING….$TYX has overlapped….looks like TLT goes to new lows as i feared yest…$TNX already soaring….glad i sold some bonds yest plus i also bought TBT right at the low….will dump it today
whilst spiking the 1150-line …
http://pragcap.com/chart-of-the-day-can-blogs-help-you-invest
scotty, the EW crowd is recounting. The oblivion count got killed on the 27th
Phil
I have 10 old 5 year bonds that mature in 2013, and I plan to just keep them till then. So right now I am mostly in MO, SO, and T. Actually that is a lie, I am mostly in cash.
String
Phil
I am not worried about anything either. As many “Cooked Books” as there are around the world, we will have plenty to eat.
String
Julie
I am fine, just a bad head cold has me in a foul mood. Thanks for asking.
String
GEORGE…bought 1/2 position of SCHX now
TARGET…from way back is SPX 1155…plus wave equality is at 1156
Phil,
I did a small scalp on SPY but there’s some juice in the inverse right now.
SELL order is in place just short of 1155…..hasta!!!
Stringm,
Cooked Books goes well with sourdough bread.
SD has just now given me charts I can use. Had to use stockcharts non-streaming.
SPY intraday gap filled. S/B interesting.
George
And sourdough bread is cheap too!!! As long as there are cooked books bread and beans, we will be fine. That is all the big boys want us to have anyway.
String
STRING….UPDATE…TLT did not overlap 89.70….ergo RALLY HO!
I share BR’s disgust, there is a sea of this we all swim in. Even sovereign nations.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/accounting-fraud-short-sellers-the-sec/
Phil
There has to be a balancing act by the FED, and I am not sure how they pull it off. If interest on the long bond were to keep going up and they stop buying MBS, the interest on mortgages will shoot up. There are many many resets pending. Yhey don’t want more empty houses. Being nimble seems to be the only choice. Like you said, don’t overstay you welcome anywhere.
String
SPY on 5min 36ma support.
George
I have been tracking volume levels at pre-market, 8:45, 9:00, 9:45, 10:00 and hourly thereafter. For the last two months it appears the higher the volume the more there is a down bias. The lighter volume seems to be a range bound day like yesterday with good swings. Have you done any volume analysis?
String
i mentioned this yesterday and here it is now..
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketSnapshot/StockMarketUpdate.htm
look at the Moving the market part
STRING….exactly….take profits when you can….long term investors have made zero in spx over the past 10 yrs…i have been cranking out 5 to 6% every year…..tortise like ….not turtle trader ..lol
speaking of bread…
http://www.lifehack.org/articles/lifehack/kitchen-hack-one-minute-ciabatta-bread.html?
I think I will give it a go.
george….one guy i follow pegged the mar09 lowand called for a year long rally into ap may2010…to 10700 dow…thats where we got and still have not gone past…..he is calling this rally the final rally before a serious correction…he is NOT PRECHTER…his call would correlate with my B wave top here then C smash down…he also warned this earthquake and volcanic increased activity was coming a year ago
HOPE we close near the top today..i want to liquidate my wifes retirement fund out of stocks todayand into cash..she has been SPX fund since april 09 and probably did better than me trading in and out…(but she didnt have all that fun) … TOP is due near MARCH 15 …BEWARE the ides of march
Phil
You stole that from Jesse. lol
K
You finally posted something I find interesting. lol
String
Phil
I got some TLT 90.10. 1000 shares, wish me luck!
String
String!!!
HAHAH glad to be back on your side HAHA
I am thinking of doing it in a few minutes.
It doesn’t have to be in a warm room does it? when i let it sit.
K is picking up coking real food instead of just books.
GEORGE…i plan to unload more bonds at TLT 91.07…good luck to you
Stringm,
I don’t follow volume. I don’t use it to trade. I know it could be beneficial, but when the market goes one way or the other on low volume or without any volume coorelation, it’s hard to trust (for me).
K
It doesn’t have to be, but it helps. Sometimes I turn on the oven for a minute and turn it off. Put the dough in and let it rise there. Just don’t let the oven get hot just warm.
String
STRING…i meant you ..but good luck to george too…CAVEAT …this pattern could be a triangle in TLT which means that this is the final rally before POST TRIANGLE THRUST down….92.07 must be surpassed to eliminate this danger
Phil,
Thanks for the heads-up on future direction.
Tops nearing on URE intraday. Think I’ll cut it and see what happens.
String,
I just went into the kitchen and have no idea where 75% of the things are. I will do some exploring after i get out of a losing trade am in.
STRING…look at 2 year weekly chart of TLT…it is either a great place to buy or bottom is going to fall out soon….HOT POTATO TRADE
Phil
I didn’t get a marriage license for it!
String
STRING…see 5 waves up from TLT low today?? now correcting that wave…dont want to see overlap of 90.14…but it would not be a total disaster
STRING on 5 min chart …….5 waves up today
Phil
Talk to me waves. I don’t grasp them. I see a run in 89.80 ish to 90.24 consolidation and a run up to 90.48. Now from 90.25 to where it ends up. I would count that as 3 waves, but I don’t have a clue what we talking about.
String
Good luck on the TLT 90.10 String.
JUST know that if we can burst thru todays high with some power we can get to 91
Mitch
Dude where have you been, on a hunting trip or something. George and I were missing you!
String
I’ve been well String. Still studying these here markets!
Phil
If you would go short for say 100 mil on the SPY, I bet you TLT would go up.
String
could break out now but may drop back to 90 .26 area first..either way looking good
Mitch
I told my wife yesterday that I finally got it. I now understand and trust that I will never get it, so I got it!
String
Phil
R2 is 90.58, so if we get through there we might be OK. I already have a couple of months interest payments so I might bag them.
String
SELLING into this @ 90.70 TLT
Phil
Big open gap @ 90.83 will bunch more resistance.
String
Stringm… LOL!
Phil
I left at 90.58
String
STRING…if you are still in the trade as long as its above 90.48 it can run up
GOOD WORK
90.50 is 4th wave of lesser degree resistance..very tough going here
Phil
It should run fine now that I am out, but that’s OK I am happy in Seattle.
String
Phil
Your comment about 90.48 and being above it, it could still run up. Was that based on 90.48 being the last new high?
String
George
I left the house early to go grocery shopping and be back home before the bell. As I strolled into the garage me and a skunk scared the pee out of each other and we both went scurrying our seperate ways. I eased back in there moments later and open the garage door. Backed both vehicles out, and went shopping. So now I am looking a setting a live trap tonight. I don’t know what kinda bait. Someone said dried cat food. You have any ideas?
String
The XME is the only major ETF that has held its up-gap from this morning. If it closes it, then that would be a good omen for the bears.
HMM
WAMUQ down over 40%
Wamu prefered also down big.
Stringm,
Skunks eat about anything. We used honey in traps. That’s okay as long as it is winter and no ants are around. Otherwise, dry or wet cat food is good. Or, just scraps from the table.
STRING..yes..powerful waves dont overlap
George
I think I will use tuna then. Skunk ain’t gettin my table scraps, I’m making homemade pizza tonight.
String
WAMUQ might be worthless but i’ll buy some “lottery tickets” at 14 cents a piece
From CNBC
On Wednesday March 10, 2010, 2:32 pm EST
Washington Mutual, known mostly as the biggest bank failure in US history, also has been a darling of stock market gamblers.
STRING…bought some TBT to hedge my bonds here
WOHOO lottery is being nice to me today.
made $100 EVEN
Phil
TBT is an ultra, so how do you determine how much to buy? Are you trying to be 100% hedged?, and buy half as much capital wise that you have in bonds.
String
Phil,
Did that guy say what the target for the “C” wave down is?
K,
Nice. I should get in on that.
George,
I got in at .14 and out at .19
i guess 100- 15.90 = 84.10 real profit but what matters is that my account value increased
i dont like messing with wamu anymore. if it went to .07 i would have grabbed some for long run (if there even is one)
string…tlt uptrend weakening but i think there is one wave up left
STRING…very small percentage hedge maybe 10 -20%
K,
That’s great. Nothing like a good penny stock.
GEORGE ..here he is http://www.insiidetrack.com/
The XME won’t fill that gap, so no luck for the bears there.
Phil,
RE: “TOP is due near MARCH 15 …BEWARE the ides of march…”
Ha,,, sounds spooky.
Thanks Phil.
George,
I know WAMUQ went up higher and higher (140 missed out on LOL)
but here is My Trade on it
.19 now has proved support I just dont want to make another trade in it. There’s always opportunities.
Larry,
Mother says hello. Wishes you the best of
everything.
Will this be a key reversal day…higher high
and a close below yesterday. The market has
sent us several signals telling us that it wants
to let some air out.
String,
We go to a local place as often as possible for
sourdough buckwheat pancakes. They’re fantastic.
K,
Nice. Hey, I like those red and green candles. Looks similar to Renko.
Julie
I will have to try those cakes. What do you top them with Syrup? I used to saty with my grandmother during the summer. She raised greyhounds, and I helped out in the kennels. She would make pancakes and put more stuff on them than the law allows. She would use grape jelly, apple butter, Karo and maple syrup, and powdered sugar. It almost kept me from being able to eat mine. Anytime someone says pancakes I think of that mess on her plate. Reversal day sounds good to me, order that up for us.
String
Has the inverse seen their bottoms? Most had a spike low today so there’s a good chance they have. The first pullback will tell the tale.
Not to mention Tres Cruzars all over the place. Doesn’t mean they will last long but the first ones in weeks.
Hug an inverse!
Now if we can just get triple triplets-lol, this will be a good week.
SPY will be coming down to its 15min 36MA soon. It has found support there the past 5 days. Should be interesting.
String,
I load them up with butter. The place also
makes its own butter. It is what I call a
roll back to the good old times when
food was food. The owner tells me that
keeping the buckwheat sourdough mix
alive is a real chore…and that’s why his
pancakes cost more.
Hi George,
It’s me again, this time I need to know what “Tres Cruzars” are…
Thanks
String, George,
Ready to welcome this youngster into the cooking club?
Ciabata Bread here I come!
I think cooking might just be my new delicious hobby.
For cooks who are not familiar with making rustic or artisan breads, attempting ciabatta bread can be very frustrating, and it may take multiple tries. It is generally considered to be a poor choice of bread for beginners. When made well, ciabatta bread has a moist crumb and a crackly, crisp crust.
LOL
I just jumped right in there huh
If we could get SDS working Phil’s bonds could take back off.
K,
FDIC has opened new offices in the Chicago
area. Every time they did this in the past
bank failures in that area jumped. Is
Chicago next?
Cooking is FUN, FUN…
Joan:
Tres Cruzars:
Get a 1,5,15min of your favorite stock or two. (Note: “3MA can be substituted for “candle” in the descriptions.)
Look for this setup; 1min candle crosses above the 9 and 36MA; 5min candle crosses above the 9MA; and the 15min candle crosses above its 9MA. These are coming up from the bottom of the MAs.
The 1min will cycle within this move up, both the stochastic and MACD. Either the 1min or 5min can be swing-traded or hang on until the below exit signal is given.
Exit on the reverse signals – when the 1 and 5min turn down – i.e., when the 1min crosses the 36MA and 5min crosses its 9MA. Another exit method is to get out of each of the respective time frames as they cross their 36MA. So, you’d make 3 exits: This would require 1/3rd sells. Or, ride the 5min or 15min until they cross their 36MAs. Lots of options here to hang on. If short-scalping, just scalp the 1min.
This has a very high probability of success. The only drawback is it takes a while for it to set up but there will be at least one on each index when trading pairs. This moves slowly, so you can watch several stocks at a time. Often requires several hours for a setup some days but it pays off big because it catches bigger moves.
Another alternative is to use a 30min or 60min time frame as the higher time frame instead of the 15min. Again, it takes longer, but this is even better when waiting on a beaten down stock to recover.
Point is, it is highly reliable and profitable. Once out of the trade, don’t worry if it continues to go up or down, just wait on the next one to come along.
I have no idea George,
Why not.. didn’t nomar garciapara just leave the chicago cubs? he signed a 1 day deal with the redsox so he could retire lol
all kidding aside that might be a good observation on your side. I just count em as they come.
btw this might be a helpful youtube channel for some of you (Stringm)
http://www.youtube.com/user/foodwishes
(And Matt! sorry i know i’m breaking rules talking about cooking during market hours)
The big boys now want credit default swaps
to settle in gold. Will the games they want to play
never end?
Thanks again George!
You know, first I googled the term in quotes and it asked me if I meant “tres cruces”, I remember enough spanish to know that means 3 crosses. Thank you for the detailed explaination!