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Carter Worth got us here -he’ll have to make an appearance for maximum credit and a Meredith Whitney type mojo reputation.
sherry….thanks for this link…this is what i am postulating..that we may be in wave 2of 3. …govmint may pull something over weekend to crush shorts and launch 3 of 3 upward acceleration for perfect “window dressing”
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Phil-
I like Tony’s charts. There are many negative
diverages on this move. One can never tell
when they will reverse the trend. I think
the institutions are keeping this trend
alive.
I don’t know if the world’s reserve currency
will change or not. But you should keep your
eye on it and dump your bonds prior to
any move.
phil:
Those looking to short homebuilders hopefully listened to you last week when you questioned the timing & risk reward on that short. KBH & LEN have bruised any late shorts.
Phil-
Can’t spell today…should read negative
divergences.
Why do you think institutions are loading up?
Sentiment seems to have turned wildly bullish. People talking about 1000, retracing rallies to Pre-Septermber crash levels. Routine talk of 870-900.
I was hoping for the market to open in the 830 range with the idea of buying some puts but it didn’t get there. Oh, well, I may get my chance next week (and may regret getting that chance).
gigi – this looks a little dicey to me. Both McO and SlowSto are staying in the over-bought regime but there’s a real divergence between them, the MACD and Acc/Dist. This looks entirely like a sentiment based rally with lots of koolaid and the elephant impatiently waiting outside the door for you to come be toejam
gigi:
Makes you wonder where the new fodder keeps coming from. I have a well off buddy that loves to gamble – says it clears his mind and all he has to do is focus on the rolling dice. I think the opportunity to reap huge gains brings out some sideline money and the traders perpetuate it in the beginning. Dips become buying opportunities and then you get the rally. BTW, I was thinking of buying JCP at 17.00 but did not. I hate when I do that!
sherry….tnx at 2.733%…bounced off 18dma yesterday but no real downside momentum….reluctantly selling more zero coupons
sherry…..tnx decline from 3.054% looks corrective with big move last week on fed q e announcement probably a c wave that may have ended the decline in rates….how ironic would that be????
To be clear, I do not think we will see 1100 or 1200, and even 1000 seems like a very remote possibility. 870-900 is possible but then the elephant will probably tear down the walls and come after you
MKB, very plausible.
FWIW – here’s Markman dissecting Geithner’s plan with some real details on workability and ways to play:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/bank-plan-buys-time-but-thats-all.aspx
FAS for example
I think his engineering is right but his read of the market to optimistic short-term. That’s all your faults of course.
phil:
Got a target on this rally?
I bet phil’s gone “shopping.”
Looks like everyone’s gone shopping.
Once again, with my perfect timing, the above comment market a temporary tradable top.
Sherry, this does push the dollar higher in the race to the bottom…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5056760/Europe-fetches-the-monetary-helicopters-at-long-last.html
Is there a short ETF for the dollar? Thanks.
Yerk-
Thank you. I was going to short the
dollar, but I’ve put that on hold.
eli,
UUP (bullish on dollar); UDN (bearish on dollar)
It’s easy to remember Up/Down
dow crumbling and tnx rates are rising….i knew i smelled a rat…big ben you had better buy bonds faster…what you are doing now is not enough!!
Phil-
Time to confess. Your buddy “D” gave
you the SPX 856 target you posted
yesterday.
sherry…858 is where the downtrend line from early nov and early jan sits now…..its not rocket science
Phil-
Clear to you. Rocket science for me.
Phil-
I’m lucky. Paula or Julia give me the floor
trader’s pivot points for the day. If you
have an interest, go to…pivot-point-trading.com
Drano,
shopping ? i bought JWN today because i know that Julia, Paula & Sherry will be spending their Phat profits from their catching the bottom.
pretty light day for posts today. Is anyone holding positions into the weekend?
Charlie Says:
March 23rd, 2009 at 4:05 pm
BTW.. I’ll stick to day trading instead of holding overnight. I find I have been burned multiple times holding through weekends. That will be my cardinal NO NO from now on. No more holding over the weekend. If I ever post that I’m taking a position on Friday near the close.. someone.. anyone.. please smack me and tell me that I’m not supposed to hold over the weekend!!
charlie………youve been warned……lol
Charlie-
I’m 100% cash now – got that way a couple of hours ago. I’m waiting for a deeper pull back in BBT then MAYBE I’ll “invest.”
lol… thanks Phil
I was hoping someone would warn me against it. As things are going.. I made 3 profitable day trades this week and am not going to take a position for a hold over the weekend. Just exited by SRS trade that I did a hold overnight for for a small profit. Not worth holding over the weekend as there maybe some Obama/Tim/Ben action on the weekend to change the rules of the game.
Thanks Phil… !!!!
BTW.. been reading a lot of articles about unrest in China over the reckless spending of the US. They are getting more and more outspoken about their anger at America. Sounds scary. I’ve even heard talk of them talk about exchanging the paper debt for physical property. Is the government selling us out? Are they selling chunks of America to foreigners similar to how China was forced to “loan” Hong Kong to the British during the opium wars?
added to my short positions via SDS and SKF. so am heavily short.
it’s go time to 780′s!
Charlie:
I read the Chinese finance chief wants to contribute to IMF only in a per capita GDP amount instead of on a pro rata share based on foreign reserves.
matt…….bearish engulfing candle on daily dow chart….looks like a buy signal to me ….lol…….maybe someday one of these candles will stop this runaway train
but of course I am a contrarian to some of you so be warned
matt…sherry …..have a terrific weekend!
the Major indexes look ready to fall.. and fall hard. Just my observation on all the charts. SPY just broke ascending resistance line which began from last Thursday.
I think it is time to put a fork in this rally cause she’s done.
i wish we’d close below 813 level on S&P
but wait.. time for the PPT end of month window dressing save to land the SPX right on support for the close..
k you don’t fool me I know you were shorting skf – until now.
haha Charlie. you know that means trouble for K holding a ton of short etf’s. funny thing is i was thinking of FAZ but then it would rot for 2 days that weekend has. if it goes above $22 i’m in!!!!
have a good weekend everyone. and be sure to watch south park’s Margaritaville episode (it’s online full)
charlie ….have a great weekend!
MKB i know i rode the rollercoaster down!!
but found out dad’s IRA account has 500 free trades for (90 days maybe?)
and thought i’d play. I made $10 earlier shorting via skf. got out then back in.
hey free trades are free trades
it will taste better if free turns profit.
Phil-
Enjoy the weekend.
phil-
Have a good weekend.
Mitch
mkb…thanks..you too
The volume today on SPY, QQQQ, IWM, and XLF was light-to-minuscule. Bulls will view it as mere profit taking. Remember, the top is a process. Previous bear-market rallies took weeks to roll over. This one probably will too.
Does anyone know where George is?? I wish he were back here posting. Wanted to tell him that I have 3 computers and 4 monitors now..
George:
What happened to my fellow Tar Heel?
Charlie!
you are supposed to have 1 computer and 8 monitors!!!
Is this kind of an island reversal on the spx? Don’t read anything into it before eom.
Good weekend to you all!
George, where art thou? I hope all is well…
phil Says:
March 27th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
matt…….bearish engulfing candle on daily dow chart….looks like a buy signal to me ….lol…….maybe someday one of these candles will stop this runaway train
matt….its not actually a bearish engulfing….but similar
Phil,
I see what you mean. I don’t know if that candlestick pattern has a name.
Matt
Matt:
Who do you have in the Final Four?
Mitch
have a great weekend guys and thanks for the great week of insightful discussion
Thanks Matt for your ongoing analysis!!!!!
I’m not sure if this article is a point for the bear case, or a contrarian indicator to support the bull case…
http://www.startribune.com/nation/42034157.html?elr=KArks:DCiUMEaPc:UiacyKU7DYaGEP7vDEh7P:DiUX
Some suggested reading:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/week-that-was-not-as-market-and-media.html
and
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/pretti/2009/0327.html
I see indications of smart money turning bearish thus limiting the potential scope of the current rebound, but also a broader drive toward risk, eg general money inflow in the market. I don’t believe the macro guys are buying above 800. EW going wild, I cannot align primary 2 4 digit s&p targets with the two links I posted above. The free-fall the CFOs see in “Forward 12 month earnings growth expectations” is most likely not priced in yet. This is a bear market rally, moderated as always by interventions.
The moves in commodities seem not driven by fundamental shift in the supply-demand balance, more likely we are seeing a self-reinforcing cycle of money flowing in the early cycle stuff as prices are going up and therefore more money flowing in. From different sources and markets I’ve read comments about price spikes driven by speculators – not physical demand. Copper movement is not aligned with iron/steel.
As an aside… When Commerzbank acquired Dresdner in September CoBa said 1,25bln will be sufficient to cover the 10bln portfolio of bad debt at DreBa. DreBa then burnt +4bln in Q4… Last week they released the total portfolio of toxic stuff actually is 55bln… Everything is under control, trust the numbers.
” the total portfolio of toxic stuff actually is 55bln…”
Yeesh. That was depressing. Time to go have some bull testicles. (see my previous post above)
Just found this site:
http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/
Take a look at March 29 posts 1, 2, and 3. With respect to EOQ mark-ups, I wonder what the results would show if you examined quarter-ends in bull markets versus bear markets. I only have 20 years of data, but may take a look at that when I can round up some extra time.