As I expected yesterday, the SPX rallied up to 1123 and then turned down sharply with the SMH and IYT plunging through their Monday gaps. But while the market refused to fulfill the rest of my prophecy, if you were watching the comments, George gave you the heads up here. If you look at the time-stamp on his two comments there, and then look at a 1-minute intra-day SPY chart, you will see that he nailed the bottom and the squeeze into the close.
All the major ETF’s gapped-up Friday morning, but they all fell back to fill their gaps except for the XLF. The XLF single-handedly kept the market from rolling over. Everybody is expecting a weak jobs report this morning, and consequently the financials are cheering another month of expected easy money from the Fed.
If you are a bear, you can say: “That’s a dumb reason for a rally.” If you are a bull, you can say: “Rallying into a bad jobs report is an indication of animal spirits.” Traders appear eager to forgive a blizzard-weakened number, but will they really? Film at 8:30am. And don’t forget that swing highs, and lows, are often printed on NFP day. Maybe SPY will run up to George’s “Moo Gap” and set a bull trap.
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 80.65 +0.44 +0.55
Natural Gas 4.580 +0.005 +0.11
Corn 383.00 -3.75 -0.98
Soybeans 942.0 -21.5 -2.28
30yr Bond 117.68750 -0.12500 -0.11
10yr Note 117.515625 +0.093750 +0.08
NY Gold 1135.1 +2.0 +0.18
NY Silver 17.285 +0.109 +0.64
Emini S&P 1126.75 +4.50 +0.40
Emini Nasdaq 1865.00 +5.25 +0.28
Emini Dow 10465 +34 +0.33
After,
No today? I like it. Only 3 negative markets out of the lot.
Matt, RE: “Everybody is expecting a weak jobs report this morning, and consequently the financials are cheering another month of expected easy money from the Fed.”
Good point: I hadn’t thought about it that way. I was thinking the opposite.
Big move coming for SPY. I’ll play the move as a scalp and will hold longer if it isn’t a fake move.
SPY’s 60min BBs are squeezed tighter than the previous month.
http://i50.tinypic.com/11rw2ac.jpg
Here’s a 15min view which has already begun:
http://i47.tinypic.com/6ntt1e.jpg
that was a nice jump in the futures – the future is bright, buy stocks
The jobs report came in at -36,000 which was better than the expected -50,000. The futures jumped to a peak of 1131.50 before dropping back a couple of points.
And SMH continues to impress
After,
My “No today” was supposed to be no “yawn” today.
Ha, by the time 9:30 is here, all of this drama may be played out in the futures.
Here’s wishing for a daily gap up on SPY. These jobs reports have all been faded in the past.
SPY weekly vs. SPX weekly.
SPY:
http://i47.tinypic.com/14l2647.jpg
SPX:
http://i48.tinypic.com/5x7jo3.jpg
SMH is at least green now. AAPL very near all time highs.
What wave is this? Is it possible to complete a wave with a gap?
Phil and 2thfixr shoud be all grins right now. WTG.
Wild and wacky couple of months. The wackier the bettier.
The Bradley Turn Date has 3/1/2010 as a significant turn. This move up began in February. However, if that is taken in the spirit, March 1 the market was moving up. This (direction) is supposed to last until 8/10/2010.
All the major ETF’s gapped-up at the open, but the SMH has fallen back and filled its gap. So, the euphoria is not unanimous.
Just a few ticks from MOOsville. Then MOAR!
how many ticks is a few, George ? -g-
Bottom on SKF -DAILY! Right now, it matches its all-time low. Soon to be an all-time LOW.
The Q’s are in their “MOO” gap now.
SRS and SDS are almost at their all-time lows. Time for a MOAR!
Now SKF has made a new all-time low – $21.73 was the previous, now at 21.70.
This ain’t gonna be pretty on the way back.
alright george so SKF is still kickin?
i am here to support the sympathy shares. I am in the process of hypnotizing the PPT into buying SKF
Hey K! Welcome.
Sympathy Shares are sound and solid. Waiting on a super duper booster rocket to the S”K”F upside.
George, not buying, just sitting mostly in cash with a play on BIDU (puts) and short GS (50 shares, not killing me, but certainly painful over the lsat 36 hours as it runs higher). I can’t justify buying at these levels and with RSI, MACD non-confirms, etc… not my cup of tea. Just because I think it is going to 1180 doesn’t mean I’ll play it.
IN fact, I added TWM at 660.50 on the RUT this AM expecting it to be topped out. If not, then I’ll get stopped out and look for another entry.
In Vegas today at a conference/training for the new dental equipment I bought from Sirona Dental (publically traded). I’ll get back to my first love of trading/gambling: blackjack later this weekend. Catching Phantom Sat night as well.
Love my TBT though today. Hope Phil has some too.
NO more posts from me today/this weekend. Enjoy the trading all.
K, there was a flicker of red streaks yesterday but didn’t last long.
Okay, 2thfixr. Enjoy the lights. Go see the Smothers Brothers if they’re still playing.
AAPL at $218. ATHigh
Go AAPL! Next stop, $300.
Getting a negative divergence on SPY’s 5min MACD.
1140-50 target area, bias up. Some recycling down to 1125 might be in the cards, this move is a bit extended.
VIX gapped down today and filled an open gap on January 20th. Ooooh, that ain’t good for SPY. That January gap isn’t present on the daily although today’s gap is. So I don’t know how significant this will be.
http://i47.tinypic.com/68v2vq.jpg
George,
I just came across this site, and am unclear about “MOO” and “MOAR” that
have been referenced. Could you elaborate for clarity, or possibly post a link with the details? Thank you very much!
Bradley turn date—either it didn’t work or that’s
gotta be one of the worst imitations of a “major
turn” I’ve seen.
Laundry is calling for an interim top Monday.
Hi Joan,
MOAR is Mother Of All Reversals, meaning that there will be a significant reversal in price.
MOO and DOO are two gap areas I’m using as targets for SPY to hit and either break through or reverse. MOO is resistance and DOO is support. MOO=Moon and DOO=doo doo, originally called “Whale Poop” due to it being so low down (sorry).
http://i49.tinypic.com/15×9451.jpg
George if you want to refurbish… This guy probably has eight eyes http://lifehacker.com/5481921/the-day-traders-paradise
ah,
That would explain why I had not heard of them before! Love the definitions! Thank you!
Yerk,
Wow! Be still my heart. I bet his power bill is more than a mortgage. I do recommend he change his clock to digital – the Atomic Clock variety.
You’re welcome. We have other pet names, like this is the Mattgic blog in honor of our host Matt. It’s a good one, too.
Barny Frank sez that future bonds issued by Fannie and Freddie will not have the “as good as treasuries” guarantee. That can’t be good for the housing market, can it?
Intraday tops/bottoms.
Barny may be the catalyst.
Julie,
I agree about Bradley. I’m giving it a couple of weeks to go one way or the other. I couldn’t imagine it having a precise date like March 1, 2010. Being as the market isn’t an exact science.
XLF turning over on the 15min.
Volume on SPY quite low
SRS has matched its all-time low of $6.90.
I’m being careful here with SPY. Only .20c from the MOO resistance. I could be off that much with my line, so…
Now ~.10c away:
http://i49.tinypic.com/w9cpit.jpg
Yes! Made it to MOO. Now looking for a breakout – up OR down.
All this goodie and ICE hasn’t done diddly.
SPY has slightly pierced the lower MOO resistance line.
The gap SPY made today may have to be a new DOO. I’ll keep the original though as back-up.
If the market doesn’t make a mini-MOAR today, there could be more green shoots in the future.
I’ve worn my keyboard out saying new all-time lows, I’ll wait until they make new all-time highs before I mention that again.
I would “think” SPY would fill the MOO gap and possibly surpass it if it was going for new highs. However, I wouldn’t trade that unless there was a good setup.
HA! I just saw the tagline: “Where Joe LaVorgna of Deutsche Bank Comes to Steal Ideas” Funny…
SKF doesn’t have far to go to be a teenager.
Inverse is looking very, very juicy.
…just sayin’
Gap targets hit, and euphoria breaks out on CNBC. Will this be another NFP siwng high? Film on Monday.
This just keeps going higher .. I’m all short and waiting for MOAR
Futures are weak after the bell. Let’s see where they close at 4:15pm.
Sam,
This is a “V” shaped rally. A nice one. However, in the past, I recall these not ending well. It’s like a reaction move then reacts the other way.
That being said, as I look at SPX, it sure looks like a Head and Shoulders pattern. Anyone else see that?
Futures dropped a couple of points after the bell and closed at 1136.25.
Here’s my final MOO/DOO. I’ve added a New DOO. If this is a H&S pattern, it could go down to the New Doo and bounce back up.
http://i50.tinypic.com/a0f0p1.jpg
George,
Thanks, I sleep in peace over the weekend now
…
George,
Yes, I noticed that too, but there is no classic neckline. The peak on February 19th is too much higher than the one on February 2nd. But if it doesn’t fit the letter of the law, it does fit the spirit.
Matt
George,
Thank you for your insight today, I am glad that I stumbled across your site!
This rally/uptrend seems almost as strong as the one in July .. I fail to see fundamental support at these levels. Germany has pledge no financial support, so the EU could potentially remain stressed for a while. At some point the “level of unemployment” should become more relevant in a consumer driven economy than a “change” or the rate of change of jobs growth. Leave aside the Deficit/CMBS/Banks/War and government failing to get anything done except large spending that doesn’t reach the people. Anyways, just a little puzzled about a continuation of the rally.
Matt,
Yes, I see that now. Thanks.
Joan,
Matt’s blog is the only one I’m on. I don’t know about the others. Mr. K is usually supplying us with some excellent links. Right now he is occupied else he would be blogging.
There are a lot of knowledgeable folks here that have a good handle on market action and trading. A little bit of everything for everyone.
Glad you could join.
Joan,
Welcome!! we could always use a few more intelligent people here
—–
George,
Thanks for the intro
3 more bank failures… btw i’ve been busy indeed almost 10hrs a day but don’t you ever think i dont check on here at least a few times a day
haven’t seen many useful links lately (75% are greece bailout junk that id’s rather not paste here.)
K,
I figured you are in the background checking on us and fishing for news. You sure have a heavy load; don’t let it get you down, we need your young brains.
Sam,
I agree that the market vs the economy doesn’t make sense. In many ways, it never has to me. I joke about how senseless it is and comment on how bad news makes the market go up, etc. But as Matt pointed out today, weak jobs may mean *more* funds from the Fed. to keep the market propped up, and that’s the opposite of how most folks, like me, think.
I try to separate myself from the news and just trade the charts. I know that it will go up and down and I focus on the technicals for turning points. I don’t have a clue what it will do next and I really don’t care. What matters to me is that I am on the right side of the move.
The market is supposed to be forward-looking; I don’t know if it is or not. I do know that no matter how bad or good the economy is, life goes on in various degrees. Something comes along that boosts the environment back up again and after a while, gets stale and backs off. The waves of change is a certainty while the timing of those waves is not.
I believe that even the best minds can’t out-guess the public, therefore I go with the flow.