Friday’s Trading – 4/30/2010

Futures pushed a couple of points higher over night, but fell back when the GDP number at 8:30am came up short of the consensus estimate. Breadth got stretched to the upside yesterday, so without a positive catalyst, the bulls may encounter tough sledding today. Chicago PMI at 9:45, Consumer Sentiment at 9:55, and then the crickets take over.

164 thoughts on “Friday’s Trading – 4/30/2010

  1. just it takes a bit to get used to and you cant get charts set up the way you like sometime but its ok overall

  2. The latest business buzzzzzz words? “Customer experience”. Replaces “Customer service” I suppose since it has tire tracks on it now. What a hoot!

  3. phil says:
    April 30, 2010 at 1:05 pm
    G… prob going to break 1180 and head to 1170-1150…..
    GEORGE….2TH FIXER >>>>break of lows is now nearly assured…ie it was a 3 wave rally as i thought

  4. Through all this mayhem, the R2K hasn’t even touched its daily 20SMA. It’s getting close to it now though. I’m interested to see what happens there.

  5. GEORGE>>>…next week should put in the BOTTOM in stocks and the TOP in gold and bonds…..get ready to SHIFT assets

  6. listen guys/gals

    I need SPX below 1188 for close so i can get a free drink. I’ll make it trickle down if you help out haha

  7. SCOTTY…i think you are long now??? this could be a triangle so if we dont take out the lows today i am going to add more SCHX here just in case

  8. Easy Phil,remembe earlier I said watch out GS getting crushed,as GS goes the market goes…me big dummy.

  9. Phil,

    I’ve been adding to the dips on the inverse – a reversal from previous trading. Won’t last long though. We’ll soon be buying SPY dips again.

  10. what’s the Boss Mitch?
    Bruce? I’ve listened to some of his songs 🙂

    if you mean a drink then sign me up haha

  11. K, I’d buy you whatever you wanted – my buds say they have to drink there’s and mine when we go out. 🙂

  12. LOL 3 puerto rican banks failed.

    talk about widespread trouble hehe

    Westernbank Puetro Rico, Mayaquez, PR – [En Español]
    R-G Premier Bank of Puerto Rico, Hato Rey, PR – [En Español]
    Eurobank, San Juan, PR – [En Español]

  13. Hopefully this turns out to be a big nothing… But Reuters is reporting that the Coast Guard says it’s responding to a second Louisiana overturned rig in the Charenton Navigational Channel.

  14. you know my fascination for bank failure stats wont stop

    Taken together, the estimated loss for the Deposit Insurance Fund for the three failed Puerto Rican banks is a whopping $5.3 billion.

    That’s the largest hit to the Deposit Insurance Fund since IndyMac failed nearly two years ago, costing the DIF $10.7 billion.

    for more info of course i have to do the right thing and link

  15. wohoooo

    I mean ouch

    Thousands of opposition supporters staged a massive protest rally in the Albanian capital city of Tirana on Friday, demanding a partial recount of votes polled in last year’s elections.

    The protest rally organized by the Socialist Party, claimed that more than 200,000 of its supporters attended Friday’s demonstration. But there was no official confirmation on the numbers by the Albanian government.

  16. Golf was okay. Led my team to a nice 10 under finish, made some nice putts, but very middle of the pack.

    When the SPX didn’t overlap my wave 1 marker (1197.54), I purchased some SDS options. Setup autotrader to liquidate half after a new low was made (with a small trailing stop) so it sold about 3:45 pm. Still holding half looking for more downside. I’ll be in your camp for 1155 Phil as I have a rooting interest in that game. My goal is slightly more modest at 1172. If this is a triangle Phil, at least I sold some here looking to reload when the d leg hits a top next week.

    Phil, good talking with you today. We share much of the same thoughts, but you are wiser and able to trade it better than I. I will keep learning.

  17. K, do you have a birthday cake made up each weekend with the numbered candles depicting the failed banks on top? 🙂

    Do you have a feeling as to whether the Great Depression or the Great Recession will have more bank failures?

  18. K,

    “Sell in May and go away” didn’t work last year but it did the year before, although selling had aready started before May. Another Market Myth Miff’ed.

  19. 2thfixr,

    Good golf outing I guess. I never got into golf. At least it isn’t a judged sport.

    What is the auto trader you have; is it with your trading platform?

  20. Matt,

    I have to PIIGyback George and Joan and extend thanks for your tireless efforts at hosting the blog.

    RUT fell through the lower channel line that started back at the late February pullback and has 4 hits… thus making it more significant. RUT was a clear 5 wave down today. It hit and just spiked the EWT channel for the 5 waves down. Interestingly, unless we get a gap-down and fall or we get that broadening top (less likely now with today’s technical damage, IMHO), if we bounce on Monday on the RUT, I want to watch the 730 area (give or take) closely. This area would be not only the 62 Fib retrace of Friday’s fall, but also the area where the lower channel line would be retested from below. That would fit nicely with EWT (and GM!). If it goes up on Monday, hits that area and stops, RUT puts thereafter would be sweeeeet. Monday should be very interesting.

  21. Warren Buffet is on the GS band wagon,Greece cuts a deal this weekend and we could see a big gap up

  22. Yes JG, the Chinese curse of “may you live in interesting times” is certainly coming true. Monday will be very telling as the direction things will be going. But, knowing the market, it just ain’t gonna be easy to figure out quickly. I’d love a nice gap down to settle the issue (H&S target of 1140 anyone?), but something tells me ramp up Monday will happen and we’ll all be “limbo” again.

    Good to see you posting here again.

  23. K, the Greecefire *will* spread….systemic deficits may take down the rest of the PIIGS, but the US is going to be like the last of the foreclosure holdouts….the piper will have to be paid, sooner or later.

  24. hehe

    In the wealthy, northern suburbs of [Athens], where summer temperatures often hit the high 90s, just 324 residents checked the box on their tax returns admitting that they owned pools.

    So tax investigators studied satellite photos of the area — a sprawling collection of expensive villas tucked behind tall gates — and came back with a decidedly different number: 16,974 pools.

  25. I have been posting a chart of the the 144 period MA in Green and the 144 period offset by 8, in Red. This is roughly the 18dma. This is the updated chart. I have added a Histogram at the bottom. The Histogram is constructed by subtracting the 144MA offset from the 144 MA, then dividing by the 144MA. This give a % that the two averages are growing away from each other, I THINK! I don’t know how to use this info just yet, but I am thinking that depending on how much the difference is between the two, the lower chart of say the 15 should be traded differently. Something to look at though.

    Talk to y’all next weekend. This Enumerator has to work this week. Most statistical surveys quote a % accuracy. Like + or – 3%. I have already seen that this Census Bureau data must end up being + or – 30%


  26. Movie Gallery’s Chapter 22 just turned into a 7. The WSJ reports that the firm has decided to shutter all of its 2,415 stores and liquidate completely.

    The Wilsonville, Ore., chain had hoped to restructure in bankruptcy court and continue operating around a smaller set of viable stores. The company employed more than 19,000 people when it filed for bankruptcy.

  27. Futures Prices
    Market Last Change %
    Crude Oil 86.54 +0.39 +0.45
    Natural Gas 3.936 +0.016 +0.41
    Corn 375.25 +7.00 +1.86
    Soybeans 999 +4 +0.40
    30yr Bond 119.06250 +0.84375 +0.71
    10yr Note 117.90625 +0.46875 +0.40
    NY Gold 1178.9 -1.8 -0.15
    NY Silver 18.620 -0.019 -0.10
    Emini S&P 1184.75 +1.25 +0.11
    Emini Nasdaq 2001.00 +2.50 +0.12
    Emini Dow 10968 +8 +0.07

  28. Futures Prices, nasdaq up 7.75
    Market Last Change %
    Crude Oil 86.69 +0.54 +0.63
    Natural Gas 3.947 +0.027 +0.69
    Corn 375.25 +7.00 +1.86
    Soybeans 999 +4 +0.40
    30yr Bond 118.84375 -0.21875 -0.18
    10yr Note 117.90625 +0.46875 +0.40
    NY Gold 1178.9 -1.8 -0.15
    NY Silver 18.630 -0.009 -0.05
    Emini S&P 1187.25 +3.75 +0.32
    Emini Nasdaq 2006.25 +7.75 +0.39
    Emini Dow 10992 +32 +0.29

  29. Randall, perfect. We can rally a little longer, but when the rest of the PIIGS come a’callin’ in a few months, this rally will officially be DOA. Why? Because the populace of the good ol’ U.S. of A will be heard loudly and clearly that any further debt will not be tolerated lest we become the next country to default on its debt. There is nobody to bail us out and we know it. Time to get our financial house in order.

    Phil, if we rally Monday, we will have completed a big 4th wave ABC with D starting and E to follow. Proceed to new highs after that. Nice.

  30. String, can you show more of that chart you’ve created? Specifically, I’m asking for the area(s) where the histogram goes + to – and vice-versa. How much of the rally does it miss before it crosses, and how much of the top does it lose on the way down? It looks like it is better than the 50/200 cross so far. Nice work.

  31. I bought a Honda power washer last week. I used it all weekend on a house. I came across this video about a new device Honda is coming out with. I’m assuming it’s the same Honda company.

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