Greed Shoots Bulls
The difference between “green” and “greed” is only one letter, and it looks like the “green shoots” have turned into something deadly to the bulls. Ms. Market will likely be wanting to punish the casino-like action that we’ve seen in the market recently. So, even if the market doesn’t crash again, new highs in the near future to open the gates of the bull trap and release the suffering bulls are probably unlikely.
Saturday Night Live Spoofs the Stress Tests
Watch here.
XLF
Keep an eye on the XLF Friday. It made a bullish engulfing candle on Thursday, and may try to lead the market higher. Otherwise, things look rather bearish.
xlf might be poised to move up but on the 13th in second half of the day I received a sell signal. at 11.75. if the signal turns into a buy i will alert the rest of you (those that care anyways
)
spx i think we can still see 907(even though I’m heavily short) before heading to 850′s
XLF weekly at this time of the week is an inside day. It was stopped by the 36MA on that time frame. Hesitating before another move.
The 60min got a fresh cross Thursday.
what about the 4hr george ?
those 60 minute ones are so obvious. i got used to 4hr on forex
K,
The XLF 4hr went in an uptrend on March 11. I have to admit, I like what I see on the 4hr WITH the 60min. This could be the combo that has a Southern style – slow-n-easy trades between naps, y’all.
According to my channel trendlines on SPY 60min, price dipped below the bottom line and tested it 6 times each hour with the last candle being red.
On the 240min it is still within its channel trendlines resting on the 36MA.
That SNL spoof is hysterical – literally in several senses. And would be funnier if it weren’t so sad. Check out these JetBlue ads for CEOS having to fly commercial when you get a chance:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYUrv9FqxKw (JB2)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmDiDJ7QrdU (JB1)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9v3aWFjYq-U (JB3)
And just to put a point on it from Le Mis – the ultimate assessment of how the people feel:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6-5g78Nr6Q
Otherwise known as “Do You Hear the People Sing”
Question:
Does the cash market affect the futures or the other way around?
The market will go up today on this news from MarketWatch:
“U.S. retail prices drop at fastest annual rate in 54 years”.
George,
When you have some free time do your
health and your wife’s health a favor
and google…vitamin d research…read
a few reports.
Hope you have a great trading day.
George, well the futures gap less than the cash market so imo they lead.
George
Have you played with any backtesting in SD yet?
String
Hil folks, took the opex week off, but just wanted to let you know, that as per an emergency NW update which came in yesterday the max low id 876, then a shoot up to 975, before the decline starts.
also as per nw, the suggestion is to enter long, as it may or may not go as low as 876.
Julie,
Appreciate the vitamin D tip. I will certainly do that.
Thanks
Yerk, thanks. I don’t quite understand the relationship between the two and how they affect each other.
Stringm,
I have played with the backtest in SD. I’ve not been able to make it work the way I need. Still playing.
ok george so the skf buy signal turns out to be a fakeout for now
but not much was lost (except me entering at 155 which i can’t stop thinking about)
Narrowminds:
Seems like chicanery to me – op ex seems to me to be dictating an 896 to 910 range for today. I’m inclined to lean long over coming months but not too heavy/reckless unless I’m pushed.
This is an expert from NW emergecy update which was sent yesterday at 9:00am est, sorry I was out an about so did not get to see it:
For those of you anxious to trade, you might consider the following. Take a Long position at 876.00 (buy-limit in Jun. S&P eMini futures) with a sell-stop at 849.00). This is not a low risk trade, so please adjust position size to keep risk at 1% of total capital. Our target will be well above 950, possibly 975 or even 1000. The exact target cannot be determined at this time. If you don’t want to take a chance on missing the S&P’s final rally, you can enter now (currently 884.00 Jun) with a smaller position (risk still 1%) using the same 849 stop.
emergency — sorry sp mistake
K,
SKF is a fakeout? Start spreading some good news and the market will tank.
let’s do just that george
SSO/SPY is at 15min 36MA support, trying to use it to go up.
Now the SSO 5min 36MA is resistance. May ping-pong a bit here until direction is established.
I bought the 1min for a scalp, then I ask myself, would I buy the 5min? NO; would I buy the 15min? NO.
That’s on SSO.
Intraday double tops.
Narrowminds, excuse my ignorance, but what is “NW”?
Thanks
SSO 15min MACD trendlines nearing the zero line. Not unusual for it to bounce up around that area. I watch the 1 and 5min stochastics for price action.
SSO will hit a 1min double top here plus 5min 36MA resistance. 5min looks good. Will see what it does here.
… another one of those situations where all the stochastics bottomed out and went up together. Nice.
narrowminds,
Thanks for the NW update. We never subscribed
to the high price service…only the forecast…let
us know how you like it.
Welcome back…have a great day…and weekend.
Stringm,
A morsel for your gut.
In strong trends moves in the opposite direction
should not last more than 4 days. If they do, change
is on the horizon.
george……i know u trade bbt so u may want to note 200dema of $bkx and upper daily bollinger band both sit at 42.72….might be a nice target for final rally
Phil, thanks. What settings are you using for BB?
george…..20,2,2……whatever that means ….lol
Okay, I’ll use that… tks
Julie
I luckily don’t pay much attention to my gut. My gut and the market are never in step. I have been paying closer attention to the 20DMA since your recent posts. I am trying to think more about the price of the 20 DMA
rather than it just being a line on the chart. While the average is still going up the rate of daily change has sure slowed. I would think after to rally we have had that sideways consolidation might start. Anyway I have give up thinking and just stated doing. I have adopted the George state of mind, see it do, don’t think about it.
String
I am giving up on posting, I can’t type and I don’t want to look stupid anymore.
Stringm,
Please do not give up posting.
another nice technical video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQDmGCXPJcg&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Estocktock%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded
Stringm,
In our humble opinion, the SPX defines the
intermediate term (IT) trend of the market.
It turns slowly (most of the time) at tops
and quickly at bottoms. At bottoms big
traders have a ton of money and are eager
to take every penny the shorts have. If
you trade the IT trend this is the best
time to start…if your’re early, the market
will forgive you by a quick acceleration off
the bottom. Your problem will be where
to take your profits.
Stringm-
I screwed up…prior post should read…
the SPX 20 DMA defines the intermediate
term (IT) trend of rge market.
Sorry.
Will be interesting to see what happens when SDS gets up to that $60.80 double top on 5min.
Stringm,
Another typo…the market.
I give up.
Stringm,
You’re posts are good. You have to post. It’s required.
Now, let’s get some (more) inverse if it busts this double top.
Julie
You might have to tell me where the bottom is. My problem is I always take my profits too early, and I shy away from trades because I hate to lose.
String
Stringm,
No one can tell you where the bottom is…it’s
always guesswork. On the last move down, the
SPX moved down for about 45 days…our limit
which is right at times and wrong at times.
At the bottom there were positive divergences.
Let’s say you bought SPX calls at 750 thinking
that was the bottom instead of 668. The quick
acceleration off of 668 put you in profit quickly.
We are still long our IT trend trades. At tops
you may have to roll your SPX puts…or move
them up for 50 cents on the dollar. We like
futures for the IT term trades and options
for the short term (ST) trend trades. Options
are easy to fix if you’re timing is off. Futures
require more care.
Julie
What do you define ST trend with 10DMA or 8?
String
Stringm,
What time frame do you trade?
Stringm,
For short term trades we study the wave. I
don’t recall when I posted it, but the prior
wave up made us look at a SPX top last
Friday in the 922 area. I had the day right
…but the top was in the 930 area. We
.only do ST trend trades on corrections.
Opex today? Explains the action thus far.
Julie,
I’m not sure what wave you’re talking about, but I sure like cycles. If waves are anything like that, I can see how they would benefit.
George,
We looked at the SPX wave up prior to
the one that had a 930 top. That wave
leasted 13 days and moved up a certain
amount…making us think the current
wave at that time would top last Friday
in the 922 area. We had the day right
…but the level wrong leading us to
think there is one more wave up. If
the size of that wave is less than
the prior wave, we may be close to
an IT top.
George, The prior SPX wave up took 13
days and had an amplitude of 103.34.
If the next SPX wave up starts off of
the SPX 20 DMA, it will have a target
of 984.66, but today we feel it will
struggle to move above 954….will
keep our eyes on delta/day.
Stringm,
I don’t like losing either. I HATE losing. I don’t even like to write the word. There are ways to trade with very little loss and in some cases, win/loss ratios come out on the winning side while losses are a part of the process – for example, mechanical systems.
I like to scalp because I’m in control. I can manage the trade whereas a mechanical system is playing the odds. I like mechanical systems, but only use them as part of the trading tools. My bread-n-butter comes from scalping.
I don’t expect much when I scalp. I don’t hold on long unless price rockets to the moon like it is in the inverse today. Often, I may only get .10-.20 cents, and at times only .05c, but I’m always making money. I buy a lot of shares and skim the cream. Buying too few shares means having to hang on longer to profit the same.
On real action-packed days, I will get dollars instead of cents. Doesn’t matter – I’m always making money. I don’t have a goal, I merely get what the market provides.
I used to swing-trade the daily stochastic cycles. Then I saw a lady who started each month with $100,000 and scalped for pennies. I believe the futures, and she was making tens of thousands of dollars monthly. Then I saw a guy on the Internet who was in Vegas, took a stock… any stock someone there recommended and made money. I knew then and there, that’s what I wanted to be able to do. He didn’t say how he did it but I figured out my own method.
I trade with the stochastic and MACD cycles. They work hand-in-hand in painting a price movement picture for entries and exits.
Hope this helps.
Scalps-Я-Us
Julie, that’s cool stuff.
Dip-buying on the underlying is back in vogue.
George,
Congrats! Make sure you give youself a
pat on the back at the end of each day
…and treat your wife at least once per
week plus a few big vacations each year.
Have a great day…and weekend.
Matt,
I got in SRS 15min at 23.41 based upon the charts you posted on the “7 common breakout patterns.” Worked great on this one when it dropped back to the 9MA and moved up while MACD was still positive.
THANKS
Julie,
Will do… Deb and I are going to Va. Celtic festival and to Charleston SC next month. A few days R&R.
You do the same…
Thanks
George,
Thanks. Enjoy your R&R.
Closed 3/4 SRS trade for $1.00 plus change.
SDS going back up to retest that top.
Finally busting out… hope it holds.
SKF $80, here we come! (ha, in about a year)
George,
Beautiful. Which one of the “7 common breakout patterns” did you use on SRS?
Matt
Matt,
It was the bull flag. It was also a rounded bottom of the 9MA trendline.
Nicely done.
bullish divegence on 5 and 15 min spx …ergo i am covering my short from spx 895 this am….good weekend to all
I’m out of SRS now.
Thanks
phil,
WTG…
This market should take the lead role in the next “Die Hard” movie.
george thanks…..i knew 896 was a brick wall from yesterday
You too phil!
george i still think we need one more low before we rally but its late…maybe gap down monday
mkb ….u may be interested in this http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/05/treasury-bonds-buying-opportunity.html
StockCharts put a message on screen ” Canadian markets have stopped trading due to a technical problem.”
phil,
I agree about a low. I was thinking we would go a lot lower from here. The higher time frames on SKF look promising as well as the daily. SDS daily moving up too. I expect it to back off toward 9MA then move up from there.
thx phil.
Check…lbrgroup.com…for info on free
Sunday show on how to use Photon
Trader.
Stringm,
You’ve been quite since my post. Did I say something that upset you? Sorry if I did.
JUST A REMINDER I’LL BE UPDATING MY PICKS LATER ON TONIGHT SO CHECK IN THIS WEEKEND FOR LATEST CHANGES
SORRY FOR THE CAPS BUT THE CAPS LOCK IS STUCK AND I FELT LIKE POSTING BEFORE I RESTART COMPUTER.
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND
K,
Can’t wait.
K,
Sorry ’bout your Bruins.
George
By no means did you upset me. I went and played raquetball, just got back. I am coming around to your way of thinking on scalps. I was planning on spending time backtesting the setup you described today on SRS. I will post the code if I come up with something. Trying to get all the relationships between time frames is tricky. You entered that trade just after the 9MA on the 15min chart crossed the mid Bollinger Band, which I have set at 21 ma. I see where the 36 knocked it back, and the 9 caught it and it took off. Anyway I am still thinking about it. Remember George I am a native Texan, if you had upset me you would’ve known.
String
Stringm,
That’s right, Texans tell it like it is…
Hey, I meant to complete the writeup of what I do. I forgot about Single Screen Scalps (SSS). I was going to do that when life interrupted me for several weeks.
I’ll get back on that.
Thanks Stringm, maybe together we can get something going that will be very beneficial.
MKB, it was a tough game but the best team won.
As long as the celtics win tomorrow I’ll be fine.
It was either a bruins fan reading today’s Metro or a prideful CEO of some company. But It seems like someone jumped/fell in front of the train.
It held me back from my schedule today and caused me to be unproductive lol and it is a sad ending of life while disturbing others.
and I meant sunday’s Celtics game not tomorrow sorry