Deja Vu All Over Again?
Thursday’s intraday pattern is very similar to that of June 2nd: a failed attempt to hold a new high, and then a slide into the close. So, I’m thinking that June 3rd might provide a good blueprint for June 12th: gap down, make a bear flag, and test the low end of the range around 925.
The downward momentum into Thursday’s close should continue Friday morning. However, the futures traded in a freakishly tight 1.5 point range for six hours after the close Thursday. That is just not a pattern that occurs in the wild, and stinks of distribution. So, it looks like somebody big is holding the futes up. Maybe they want to rope some suckers into buying the open so that they can dump stock on them. In any case, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see K’s FAZ falling-wedge pattern spring to life tomorrow. Not making any predictions; just riding the waves as they come, but keeping my eye out for a nice one tomorrow.
XME Takes Over
The XME has now surpassed the XLF as the top sector since the March bottom. The XLF is now up 98.2% and the XME is up 99.5%.
McC Osc looking bearish: NYMO and RSI divergences as compared to the SPX, the RSI cracked below 70, and a bearish MACD histogram exists.
DJUSFN is at my upper channel line from May 2008, and GS showed some weakness with its close today.
We got a clear 5 wave up intraday today on the SPX, which means that could be the top (can’t tell for sure the order of magnitude of the wave form).
Can’t tell if Thursday was the peak, but if not, I believe we are close.
I’m looking for some downside tomorrow morning, too. Tomorrow will be an exciting day— the market is on the verge of revealing itself via violation of the EWT-based “rules” for wave action—- have we started down already, or do we go a little higher? Wax those boards… surf’s up.
I’d like to see 4.80 on FAZ Matt. if it passes it we are good to go up
TRAN made a double top (May, June) and stopped both times at the 38% retracement (classic wave 4 action) of the entire move down from last June, i.e. the entire wave 3. Well… this may be it.
K,
I’d like to see 480.00 on FAZ. LOL (but not so funny for the world).
JG as long as I see above $6 by july i will be a happy camper with a good % on my options haha.
hey 480 you said? Bring it on!!!
the world is done anyways!
And, let’s all remember how the DJUSFN and TRAN led the SPX into the ground during this bear.
Denninger was on fire today. Many pages to read, if you haven’t already. Make sure to catch the bond auction post.
Oops… forgot to post the link for readers who may not know about Mr. D.
http://market-ticker.org/
Paula,
I did a search for LBR trading and got nothing. can you please elaborate more I am very interested and thirsty for knowledge
K,
Google…lbrgroup.com…click on lbrgroup.com.
When you go to the site a window will open
and offer you a free trial. The free trial is up
to you, but I suggest you register as a guest.
Also check the compression and summation
tick meters.
Good luck.
Paula
Can one of the TOS users here tell me how to set up VWAP. When I set it up it is just a line that runs through the candles. There is never any separation. I cant see any returning to, bouncing off, breaking through or any of the stuff y’all talk about.
String
String,
The same thing happened to me, and Tony told me how to fix it. Instead of putting the VWAP on your chart, you want to put the CumulativeVWAP.
Matt
Matt
Got it, Thanks. I don’t know if it is because I am so use to SD, but this TOS is Funky.
String
just bought at spx 939 looking for upward blast 3 of 3 up…final target is at 988
upward blast should come from 939 level… but spx cannot fall below 928 or i am wrong
FAZ biyatch not moving down a single bit.
I think the Fly has turned bearish. http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/
X a buy at 36 and change
only sector up today is health, and a few financials, and a few in telecom
aud taking a hit today
need upward acceleration now if it is 3 of 3
K,
FAZ just got a 9/36/15 cross-up.
i see 5 waves up from the low….waiting to buy more on any dip
matt……thanks for reminding me about the triple bond etf…..bought tmf the 3x bull treasury at 33.12yesterday…now @ 35.74…..thanks matt
In spy 936 need to see Phils call…lets rock
You’re welcome Phil. Nice trade.
The attempt to fill the morning gaps has failed so far. That’s often a bearish omen.
938.77 is the .618 retrace of 5waves up from spx 927.97…….
if correct these upwaves should now get stronger
stop is @ spx 935.66…..it has no business below there if i am right
stop raised to 938.43 now
SPY just filled its gap. QQQQ, IWM, and XME have not yet though.
stop raised to 941.08…..ie there should be no overlap of that initial 5 waves up
would like to see large up gap soon to cement 3 of 3 up
Looking good Phil,I will take 950 though from here
FWIW I really doubt we accelerate up from here.
overlapped…….stopped out for a small profit
too many problems in the background….dollar rallying …. ndx down and overlapped early as canary in coal mine should….now we have to consider that 956.23 was the top but we need to break 927.97….watch and wait for now….good luck all
ndx has already broken wed low….canary?
dollar index is looking more like a bottom…if so deflationary vortex is going to wind up once again and crush all in its path as is did last year
what a boring tape
scotty……did captain kirk beam you up out of that spx trade yet????????
Paula
Did you put the Julie trade back on yesterday, or do you still think the top is next week?
String
no got a stop at 936,staining deck coming back in evry 10 minutes,whats your read
Maybe the market will wake up when the NYSE gets its technical difficulties fixed. CNBC says a couple hundred stocks are halted.
The Q’s pattern from yesterday afternoon to now looks like a bear flag to me. If that is the correct interpretation, a 100% extension of the flag would take the Q’s down to 38.53, which happens to be the top of their June 1st gap-up.
scotty….short term looks liks a triangle…probably going to break todays low as triangle usu breaks in direction of most recent trend….other than today we are still in no mans land between 928 and 956
i think one push in the next hour and then down.
SPY’s MACD histogram is trying to cross above 0 on the 15-minute chart. This is usually an important event. If it can cross up, then it has a good chance of running a bit higher.
The TICK has been making higher lows for the past two hours, so that is a bullish factor.
I’m out of USO with just under a total of 25%. It didn’t make it to $75, but I wasn’t going to get greedy. Still, definitely earned my monthly allowance already. Now, if only UNG would play ball, but that will likely have to wait for September…. My other positions are GLW, KEY, and XME, and I’m staying with those. KEY is the real winner so far.
I took a half-position in TLT this morning around $90. To my mind $80 is doomsday, and if it gets there, I’ll double down, otherwise, I’ll let it ride. I think it can make it back to $98 in the next couple of months, especially if the fear trade kicks in. The dollar selling is overdone, it seems to me.
Guess I just felt like sharing today;)
String,
No Julie trade today.
Hope you have a great weekend.
Paula
Oh, and AAPL, and I’m confused about that one. I can take profits now, but I don’t know how much it will pull back, and I’m thinking it’s got room to move, if the rest of the market cooperates. The one I really missed out on was RIMM, and I’m still kicking myself!!
looks like spy wants to BTFO but its still early
russell already near its high for the day
Nice USO trade, Marty.
Paula
Have a good one yourself. I think I am headed out, tired of watching this paint dry. Hope everyone has a big weekend planned. Good Luck to all.
String
reversal the last 11/2 hour,happened everyday this week
IWM’s attempt to fill its gap has come up short so far. If QQQQ and IWM leave those gaps unfilled, that would be a bearish factor.
IWM just surged up and filled its gap. The Q’s are still a long ways away.
IWM just BTFO
Thanks Matt. Haven’t had a big wipe-out since January. It’s making me nervous!
It’s up to the Q’s now to fill, and surpass that gap…
a lot of stops were triggered above 94.8 spy. will there be enough real buyers or other short covering to take us higher now?
The Q’s are still making afternoon highs and getting closer to their gap.
Q’s looking a bit shakey…
SRS getting a beating going into the weekend.
geez now what…today didn’t seem to decide anything
The SPX clawed its way into the green in the final minutes, but the Q’s could not fill their gap. To me, that was the primary drama. Normally, it wouldn’t be a huge deal. However, when you combine it with the gravestone doji candle yesterday on the daily chart, the Q’s look poised to drag the market down. Also, the STEM-MR model at sentimentrader.com (not free) was on oversold all day. The market should have snapped right off of that reading, but it didn’t.
So another day closed above the 200ema on the futures. Looks like they need more shorts to pile up so they can push the market higher. As long as junk is flying, shorts seem to lack the conviction to hold dead wood until maturity.
phil, I just saw your earlier posts. The move up got more and more popular over the last days – so far the crowd has not killed it…
This chart screams for a reversion to mean – you can literally see the green stuff growing. This will get cut back.
http://pragcap.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/cyc.png
SPY max pain stands at 83.0. Substantial difference.
JG,
Yes, perhaps this week they tantalized the masses with visions of a breakout and sold them zillions of call options. And maybe next week is when they pull their bids, let the market drop, and weasel out of paying-off on all of those calls.
Matt
Matt,
That’ll put a smile on my face for the weekend! Have a good one.
@Dressguard re SRS: They are not done with the refis. http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/merrill-lynch-in-full-reit-upgrade-mode.html
@Yerk: Yes, I read that too. TNX also lower today. I think that had more influence. Treasury auctions put some weight on the REITs the last days but today a relief rally for the bulls. SRS is still a pain in the backside. Little moves up, big moves down.
JG was the faz crossup on the 1h chart? i closed my platforms for the weekend but just wondering
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/ahmadinejad-loses-election-jpm-guns-spy.html
i noticed that too
K,
15, but right now it sits $0.01 under.
Ron Paul’s “Audit the Fed” bill garners support.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/