Yerk mentioned that Thursday’s buying began after the open, and not during the pre-market. That’s a relatively rare type of day. I haven’t done a definitive study, but at first glance, such days may occur only once or twice a month.
The last two were June 25th and June 11th. Both days opened with small gaps and then rallied strongly. June 11th, of course, formed a top that lasted for a month. June 25th finished strong, but the market couldn’t push much higher in the following days, and then went off the cliff five days later.
So, this sort of day may be an indication that a short-term top is near. A possible explanation is that the buying is done by mutual funds who wait until after the open for sufficient liquidity to do their buying. Perhaps the funds are buying because retail investors, excited by the uptrend, send in new money, and fulfill their usual role as “last in” during a rally.
Roubini Sees Risk of ‘Double Dip’ Global Recession
The global economy may fall back into a recession by late 2010 or 2011 because of rising government debt, higher oil prices and a lack of job growth, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the credit crisis. A “perfect storm” of fiscal deficits, rising bond yields, “soaring” oil prices, weak profits and a stagnant labor market could “blow the recovering world economy back into a double-dip recession,”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aoCL0g4Lzg2I
That’s an interesting observation Matt.
I have been waiting for $98 SPY to short, I bought Dec 75 and Aug 90 PUTs with the SPY at 97.7.
My thinking is that we have been making a broadening pattern with tops of 95 then 96 and now 98. Each “breakout” failed quickly. If I see $99 I’m
wrong and I’ll sell the PUTs. Interesting that MSFT is down for lack of sales on new computers when INTC didn’t seem to have the same problem.
also microsoft earnings came out and yeah i don’t know.. looks like we hit tops on market
K,
You’re in big trouble. Suggest you listen
to String.
Yerk,
I agree with you. My 1007 SPX target is
too low. Should see the SPX correct to
the 930 to 935 area…then head toward
1000….correct back to SPX 20 EMA or
20 DMA and then head for the top.
Hope you have a great trading day.
Funny how Roubini is warning against the effects of the policies he himself has been advocating for a year.
Keynesianism. Make it up as you along.
George,
Should we watch the new NCIS this fall???
On a similar theme to what you said about mutual funds buying yesterday, here’s Richard Lehman (of Trend Channel Magic) :-
7/23 — A friend of mine with many years in the business went to an asset allocation of 100% long today, saying it was fruitless to fight the tape. I think that epitomizes the money management mindset here. The fundamental folks are jumping in because they see green shoots in the economic indicators. The technical folks jumped in due to what they see as a breakout above the moving average and prior highs, and the portfolio managers have to throw in the towel on waiting for a pullback since there hasn’t been one.
paula,
You’re talking about NCIS LA? Yes, I’m going to give it a try. Nothing will be as good as Mark and team, but a little more of something good could be better.
paula,
dax today jumped to an equivalent of 980 but the futures did not participate that much. EW says a last thrust is missing, today’s flag on the dax should not come down too far…
Agree with what you say, so we have another month to reach higher highs but on a slope less steep. All the best – as always subject to immediate change due to unfair market moves – the last time 980 got crowded it failed. I hope this time everyone is staying on board as Darren indicates.
Stringm;
RE: “I have been walking 5 miles a day, playing raquetball, and eating low fat meals,losing 40 lbs.”
Super duper dude. I do the gym almost daily including cardio. 40lbs is a lot of weight – that’s like half a grandma.
Darren,
I can visualize that scenario that’s now happening – folks not wanting to miss the boat. When the bus gets full, it will crash.
Wish I had a “packed-bus indicator”.
I’ll be trading again perhaps today or Monday. String, thx for the advice – trading and health. I had to start lifting again last month.
George,
Good points about NCIS. Try 10 DMA of
$TRIN as a packed-bus indicator. 0.8-no
seats left. 1.2- all seats available. 1.0-
half full.
String,
Congrats!!! on your health routine.
Paula/George
Thanks, but I was kinda forced into it as a result of bad liver functions tests. That is also perfect now, and I am off blood pressure meds, and things work again. I am approaching my high school weight, but that means little because I have lost so much muscle mass over the years I still am a little flabby. Doesn’t matter though my wife loves me, and I wasn’t planning on getting outta here alive.
George it is kinda sad how much weight can’t be moved. Makes you think things through, things that used to be manhandled have to be coaxed now.
Paula write all these market stat tidbits down and post. They are great reads. You don’t have disclaim them I know to use at my own risk.
String
String,
Give yourself a pat on the back. Will try to
post a few in the future.
paula,
Tks for the bus indicator.
Paula
Dr. Brett has a good one on his blog today. Rob Hanna post all these odds type things too, but your tidbits are more direct and informative. Today on Doc Brett:
SPX being up %2 after being up for at least 3 days. The following 2 weeks were up big in all but one case since 1965. There have been very few instances, like 10 I think.
String
string,
I used to play a lot of sports. I then did some gym and for past year haven’t done it regularly. I have also slacked on the veggie side but good amount of fruits though.
My eyes are wide open now and I will make changes.
K
I have always had to watch what I eat. If I eat fatty foods, I get fat. My wife on the other hand eats anything and stays relatively small. She too had gain over the years, not to look fat, but heavier than she was. She has been walking with me since the first of the year, and has dropped 13 lbs. I think exercise must be the key to it all.
String
I’ve been 145-150 range for about 2-3 years now. when i was at the gym a year ago i gained 5-10 muscle to bring me to 155 . last checked was 148 at physical for a 6 2 figure that’s ok.
anyways let’s not get Matt mad and continue this after market closes
Yip exercise is the key, do enough aerobic exercise and you can eat anything you want to – within moderation.
No need to live like a monk and deprive yourself of tasty food and treats.
Discipline (just like being a successful trader) is the thing to losing or keeping weight off for 95% of the population. Burn the same number or a little bit more calories every week than you take in and hey voila !
Darren
ex-Triathlete, now fast Husky dog walker.
George, glad to see you now have a packed (bull) bus indicator.
I think UOM confidence index will be higher because this rally has caused psychologies to change so here we go 1000 spx
Keeping an eye on FAZ, SRS also.
after:
You have a shock absorber at 86 SPY. How about SPY Aug 92? I don’t think the force would be with me there but it ought to be – oughtabe and $ are two different things though. Straight shooter here though.
Mitch, i got your back with sept 96 call.
george remember i said i wanted srs yesterday? the option was at $89 now it’s worth 120
K:
I see your point – I just hate stretching!!
K:
Out to September that is . . .
LOL shhhhhhhhhhh stretching gets the bigger $$
you know what they say.. best apples are usually at the top. so STRETCH or climb the tree.
K, bummer. I got into FAZ yesterday using Tres Cruzars. It was really late in the day yesterday and I didn’t think it was going to turn. Nice ride so far.
paula, two layers of support about 950 and 935 futures.
george……held my nose and bought QLD @ 43.22…..need at least one more new high in nasdaq even if there is a wicked correction….yesterday may have been the momentum peak but even that is not confirmed yet !
MA Cross vs. Price Cross of MA.
I’ve been looking at that and here’s what I’ve come up with. Price crosses of a MA (in anticipation of the MAs crossing) give more false signals than the actual cross of two MAs. While there may still be a whipsaw of the MA crosses, there are a lot fewer than price crossing a MA.
Using Tres Cruzars prevents these whipsaws when a lower time frame is being used for entries and exits. In fact, whipsaws are welcomed.
phil,
Not sure how much of a correction this is going to be. My suspicion is that when the hourly 36ma resistance/support is hit, this may turn around. Just a guess, but that is an important area.
george….i will be happy to sell at test of top
phil Says:
July 23rd, 2009 at 11:20 am
i want to sell when GLD touches upper daily boll band @ 94.20
>>>>george…look how close GLD got to upper boll band yesterday…rats…i had to leave so sell was not hit
I gots a BBT sell sig?
K,
I got a BBT sell signal yesterday around $21.47.
S&P futures are still hovering above their neutral pivot point for the day which is 963.81
SPY woodie’s pivots
R1 98.45
N 97
S1 95.93
is this helpful? maybe i can post them once a day since they are on my chart?
Phil,
Don’t you hate that? My broker doesn’t allow bracket orders which would prevent that from happening. Especially if they were trailing brackets.
george, I got a buy signal yesterday at 21.30 lol. still not confirmed sell signal today. but minor losses like this are acceptable if winners make up for them
K,
That would be helpful. I normally jot them down then lose my jot.
in that case let’s add all 3 pivots This is Woodie’s Pivots which i tend to like a bit more than the classic.
SPY July 23 2009
R3 101.02
R2 99.55
R1 98.48
P 97
S1 95.93
S2 94.45
S3 93.38
Mitch/all, i added DXD @ 41.33. to bring my (yuck) avg cost down to about 47.60 will recalc that on monday just to be sure.
re spy puts @ 92 vs 86, not sure what you mean by shock absorber, i bought some @ 86 because they were low cost, because a newsletter writer i subscribe to is thinking maybe a short term drop in s&p nearly a couple dozen pts below 860, and because i’m an old Get Smart fan -g-
92 strike might be better, current ask is 80 cents, based on a dare to dream bottom of 83.7 on spy, that is a 10 bagger.
i will wait till next week b/4 doing more, right now stuck with DXD, QID and VXX at below mkt entries…
best wishes and trading…
after, be very friggin careful my friend
best of luck
after:
Thanks.
tick is so low so might have a go higher here since traders are lunching and computers are at work
That’s it. I am out. I have been way too lucky for way too long.
Note from the trenches: There were some really desperate retail buyers on some relatively illiquid stocks here. (Europe)
Soon joining the bearish camp again.
100% Cash and ready to sleep well at night.
Good night Larry!! oh wait you got another hr
unless you sleep this early there.
Great trading Larry – no position should get on ones nerves. Is there a bearish camp?
zero vs zero – the next episode is online. The exchange of opinions has the additional value of enlarging one’s arsenal of pleasantries and flatteries: “We’ve been watching quite carefully and we haven’t seen a story above the 5th grade level out of you in over a year. (Except, perhaps for the piece on porn, that was at 7th grade level for sure)” and benevolent, supportive criticism in a business context: “All our criticism aside for a moment, we recognize that in many ways it is not your fault. A drowning institution grasps at anything that floats. If we are discouraged by anything it is your inability to just swim on your own.”
Larry,
Congrats on your trading.
Yerk,
Thanks for the support numbers.
And now back to sleep. Good luck all.
Bearish. Start with this one. Price looking toppy and warehouse levels are increasing in London.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#5years
It feels good to be back on the bearish side. Very good.
institutions accumulating…..buy signal given http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SmmyW5qiIbI/AAAAAAAAD-Q/hmIQvi3Iqqk/s1600-h/instbsell%5B2%5D.png
Yes Phil. I read today about an insurance company in Europe that is piling into equities. They sold everything in October and November.
phil, yep. Should limit downside surprises, but I’d prefer yesterday’s highs to get taken out today as reassurance. These fifth waves up sometimes get lost…
Hey Matt, Did a bull flag start this morning on HEB? I would appreciate your opinion. Thanks.
goog made new highs, because bidu – nah, there is no bubble in China
george…..no sense being greedy…..just sold QLD for 1 pt gain
phil,
Don’t over do it… same some for us!
I can’t draw any channels on most time frames. At least anything that makes sense to me.
The 30 minute is closest and looks like SPY has bounced off the bottom line and about midway into the channel. That’s a good place for it to continue or reverse.
Only the 30min stochastic will tell.
OK, I have one now on the 15min. It’s a wide sucker stretching $1.50 on SSO. Still midway and moving up.
phil,
Nice trading. It pays to be a contrarian. I can’t get that personality out of my soul.
George, are we painting the next double top? Move up is a bit sloow
george…thanks
i smell a scary downdraft coming….. just another buy opportunity
george……channel http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SmmKN0lWIdI/AAAAAAAABWs/PTMfherPwdE/s1600-h/SPX60min.png
Yerk,
I was leaning that way but this backing off of SPY fooled me. The gap down was filled, maybe that’s all it wanted to do. While it did meet that double top with a spike, I thought it would be a full-bodied candle then reverse. Maybe it will try one more time.
Meanwhile, I had to hop in the inverse on the minute. And it’s looking good on the 5min.
George, unclear sideways action. The weekly does look nice but it will not drive intraday action
trend is FLAT
George
The price and the 9MA crossed the 36 down on the 15M for SSO today, and it went up. Now price and and 9MA have crossed up and it appears to want to come down in price. So what’s up with that?
String
I was trying to borrow CHINA but there are none available. there’s plenty of USA to borrow though. i think it’s the printing presses.
(yes those are 2 real stocks hehe)
TICK is doubledipping below -600′s level again. I’ll get mad and say “NO DOUBLEDIP” take 1 BIG dip then eat it!
Stringm,
That condition is when the stochastic is cycling within the MACD. It can happen anytime, but does it a lot at tops and bottoms.
SPX just wants to get rejected at 98.48 R1 today sadly
K,
Could be weekend sellers clearing out? Oh, I raised my hand on that question.
Of course, weekend covering of shorts is going on too. Ergo, volatility. Makes me happy.
where’s the volume? and still yesterday’s highs not taken out
if we don’t breach 98 again i consider it bullish sadly. but of course as i’m typing this we breached..
NVM
happy yerk on the high break?
i want a 30 cent spike in next 60 seconds then rejection.. wishful thinking
Golden Cross
…just sayin’
oh? upwards?
K, this glassball didn’t get shattered today:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SmoMGk7SVkI/AAAAAAAABXE/0ulRPh_JQoE/s1600-h/spx1min.png
well i know SPY hit 98.21 in AH just 27 cents from my rejection line lol
that glassball will never yerk. i was always about the fake SPY china ball than the real SPX usa ball
SPY hourly has gone up 10 days in a row. It’s pulling back to the 9MA, but nowhere near the 36MA.
Its 60min channel still looks good. When it breaks the lower one, that could, of course, be significant.
Have a great weekend everyone!
You too K!
George, /es bounced off the 36ma today on the hourly. Looks like a comparative analysis of spx, spy and /es is needed…
Yerk,
I’ve always assumed those moved together, obviously they don’t. I can understand why everyone is jumping aboard here, and if past performance is any indicator, there will be a really big, quick move up at some point right before exhaustion. Not saying that will be the end, only those that don’t want to be left behind will be knocking at the door at the last moment.
Yerk,
That’s true when you use ES data that includes the overnight sessions. But if you only include daytime sessions, the chart of the futures is pretty much identical to the SPX and SPY.
Matt
Matt, George,
I was working under the assumption that they are pretty much inline during regular trading… which they are not. spy hourly stochs turned at 60 today, fast on /es tagged 20. Will keep an eye on these divergencies.
I use futures overnight, so I can see how the market will roll before the regular secession opens.
Have a great weekend everyone – next week should put an ST top on this move.