SPY printed a small double-top on its 1-minute chart at 3:42pm Thursday afternoon. It doesn’t look like much, but I have a feeling that they ran out of shorts to squeeze and switched off the squeeze-bots. Perhaps we will have a narrow-range consolidation day on Friday similar to June 26th or July 17th.
Having impressively filled Monday’s large down-gap already, the QQQQ and IWM still have small gaps left open from last Friday morning. The Q’s need to tag $40.09, and the IWM $57.60. If they can’t do so, the market may need to dive down and see if it can reload some more shorts to feed to the squeeze-bots next week.
I still think SPY buy signal is a fakeout… here is futures around the time Matt Mentions…
Is the end of this rally FINALLY here?
if things go as I am seeing i see Nikkei at 9 handle and s&P futures at 950.
Of course not by tomorrow (although that would be super awesome!! since the vix would go bananas) but longer term..
Another day, another up morning. FTSE storming up again, above R2 level, future has hit 4800 level and broken above last weeks high.
FTSE currently leading SPX on the daily charts. ES up to 1008.8 so far.
FTSE future has hit R3 …….
NOOOOOOOOOOO I jinxed things again!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i have added a second updated chart to my post. check above link
Baltic Dry -2.6%. Down 30% last 3 weeks.
Larry, re baltic, isin’t that bullish ? everything seems to be -ng-
lots of analysts giving recommendations today.. i wonder…LOL
After, I’m working 12 hrs a day now and have no idea what’s going on. But oil is heading higher. I’m betting that CB’s must say/do something very soon to stop the madness.
30 short
phil Says:
August 20th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
JO…..we could test the top or make a slight new high
>>>>>>looks like we are THERE….i had bot a large amount of SSO in my retirement thinking it was not going to be a trade….but with 2 quick points and possible b wave it gets SOLD at the open…….hasta la vista bay bee!
Last night on the news, they said producers were holding back on refining to lower reserves. That would make oil go down, gasoline rise.
George,
poor farmers
COPPER is down
Maybe they’ll get paid to not grow more copper.
HAHAHAHAHAHA
SOLD 2000 SSO for a 2 pt gain
This makes double tops on the daily for Qs and SPY.
tried getting an spy 100 put but didnt fill.
phil, WTG! Ha, OPEX is alive and well. Now, where’s that maxpain?
Only +4 more points to go on SPY to reach the target.
GEORGE….thanx…..yes lets drop to 992 so i can RELOAD LONG
phil, that would be nice. Unfortunately, I was out of SPY at the close yesterday, but I did get two scalps. As you say, waiting on pullback to possibly get a good run up.
Unless this is capitulation, and I wouldn’t recognize one of those if it hit me up side the head.
phil
if i can get a FRE $1 option for $5 i would be happy
YERK…..remember….if spx cannot fall below 992…upward acceleration could be in force ….i would love to buy at mondays low again …maybe we will get that chance
K…..i think this is a good place to buy a put….take profits quick if we fall towards 992…..i will be BUYING there to hold the market up….lol
hey george you own a share of ford or GM? i just shorted ford
damn phil . look at what you have done.
NEW HIGHS SPX
I’m a little weeetad.
K Says:
August 20th, 2009 at 11:44 pm
I still think SPY buy signal is a fakeout…
BLAST IT!!!
GEORGE…this is what i was afraid of ….and why i warned all here not to short….UPWARD ACCELERATION is looking to be the case
futures 1024 and i will write a spy 100 put
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/So3e4RHia1I/AAAAAAAABcM/MNhyvuBduSE/s1600-h/SPX60.png
we are in wave 3 up now
1033 is blue line target today……
K,
I have Ford.
MITCH…….TLT crumbling…..as spx rockets higher .. get ready to load up on bonds or tlt as you prefer
phil,
Although I wasn’t in for the gap, I’ve done well with BBT, SPY, SKF quickie scalps, but no ICE.
phil,
Only SKF was quickie scalps… the others I’m still in.
GEORGE…..i want to BUY any pullback to 1018……target 1033 today
phil,
I’m with ya on that strategy. That should give some nice counter-moves, too.
and as promised i tried getting into an spy put position (although i already own 96 put for sept)
this one doesn’t want to get filled.
fre isnt filling and i canceled spy put order.
options i never do market so i will just stick to my guns. futures arent at 1024 anymore so no dice
phil:
I hear ‘ya on Treasuries. Trees don’t grow to the sky (do they).
I traded the best I could coming into this wave up to avoid the consequences of the below:
“”Mitch Says:
August 19th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
marty:
Everyone has their own interpretation of why we move around. I thought the Empire Indexes and the hurricane blasting oil players (oil up NOT $ down) were major stick saves this week for the longs. Friday will squeeze the players who misread these actions – unless they get the story and adjust now. My guess is Friday squeezes the shorts (I’ll be among the squeezed). We’ll see.”"
phil Says:
August 19th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
boll bands pinching…something big about to happen… if i am right it is going to be the start of wave c down to 960 buy area
>>>>>>>WRONG direction ….but is WAS big…..
phil,
Sure was big, really didn’t matter which way. Good call.
“Box of Miracles” can happen.
I forgot UYG… nice move on it.
ICE lagging – if it truly is a market forcaster, we go red streaks today.
TNX +1.15.
There are soooo many gaps on the inverse. If the market ever corrects big time, buy inverse, turn off computer, go on a trip, and 3 months later waller in the green.
…just sayin’
around 1018 is support that phil put a barrier. i’ma nuke it and go to 990!!!!!!! LMAO
K…..is the SGA machine broken???
I would need to go over to JG for that.
my machine yesterday said BUY BUY BUY!!
told me SELL SRS.. well i sold on one account but the other i left there. said sell DUG i kept.. LOl
BUY CZZ and GPOR are working for me today though until phil causes a run on them
so JG might have tinkered too much with her SGA and broken it.
Mine is still working SUPER(K)
had a buy on IYR at 39.25 but of course i only trade stocks under $10
when half a dozen banks fail this weekend don’t be surprised that we go higher monday
LOL!
K…..obviously none of that matters …as you can see
K…..when the news turns good and the market fails to rally …THEN you will have your top
Good News “The Market Rallied” great news “Phil works with gold in sacks”
STILL waiting for test of 1018
K…what ?
goldman sachs?
I am just enjoying expiration friday Phil.
don;t know what that gold in sacks comment was forgive this schoolboy.
Work is quiet and am workin solo. (aka staring at the ticker)
yes i meant the gold man with sachs
K, I got kind of confirmation for the the story you posted. Why are those in the know not acting like the crisis is over? They should buy stocks and relax.
pomo today – phil maybe too much liquidity incoming for 1018
From the other GS:
Econometric models we ran show that the S&P 500 has 4.0% real GDP growth priced in, versus 2.0% for the corporate bond market. … Now at the stock market bottom in March, the S&P 500 was priced for -2.5% real GDP, which is exactly what we are going to get this year, so the notion that the S&P 500 was egregiously undervalued back at 666 does not bear up to scrutiny. At the time, that level was completely realistic in light of the macro outlook. Fast forward to today, and the stock market is priced for 4.0% growth (even though we haven’t seen a year like that since the Y2K spending craze in 2000).
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Breakfast_with_Dave_082109.pdf
BBT nearing double top on 5 and 15min.
YERK…..all you say is true…..the economy is crap…the market doesnt care….everyone has this bad news available to them….target 1050 minimum
YERK…i see a sharp c wave to 1018 brewing now
phil – liquidity is the game… Just in case someone confuses liquidity with solvency I post some real world messages from time to time.
Early September and 1050 – it depends when all this shorting stops. Sentiment reversed so quick this week, this couldn’t work out. Still kicking myself that I didn’t go long this morning – too busy with other things.
phil, where do you think this pull back will go?
Give’m hell K.
george…..im still looking for 1018 phil Says:
August 21st, 2009 at 10:07 am
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/So3e4RHia1I/AAAAAAAABcM/MNhyvuBduSE/s1600-h/SPX60.png
>>>>>>>>this looks good to me
Zero Hedge guy banned from markets for insider trading?
New York Post story here.
Ha, that youtube made my charts freeze some.
SPY 15min turning over to the downside, stochastic and MACD. It could catch a bid and reverse that if the 5min MACD crosses to the upside.
Sorry George.
haha Zero Hedge suits the name then!
he can talk but got nothing to hedge
buy signal still in force http://lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/So6df1KYOuI/AAAAAAAAEVg/Y6ivpiZSrXQ/s1600-h/3%5B2%5D.png
Makes ZH even more trustworthy. They know how the game is being played
Double bottom SKF 60min. Something has to give here.
15 min spx bb pinching….should test ma @ 1019
If we end up with red streaks today, I get the “Ziggy Piggy” award, right?
start streaking then we’ll see
i believe i might have bagged a TLT 25 sept call
Well, I may be pushing it a bit since we haven’t reached the SPY target. Heck, that may take a month.
No red streaks today.
K,
That TLT is a good move. When that thing reverses… wow. I’m waiting on it myself.
George. it cost me $130
I usually buy cheap out of the money calls or puts but this is a new approach
you know i like to put real money to the test instead of emotionless paper
George, during flags the lower timeframes cycle and the higher ones don’t follow. When the lower ones cycle back up the flag is resolved. So imo for a red ending confirmation from the higher frames is needed (1h is still moving up, 30min rolling over)
i should have waited for my signals to confirm but someone was willing to sell to me for lower so It went through quick
K…..TLT is 94 now …you bought a 25 call??? please explain
please bear in mind USD/CAD again… nuff said
i meant $95 phil sorry. am mixing up my symbols
K…..that makes sense now
K…i see tlt down to 93 at least… stock rally and bond auctions will keep bonds under pressure….same some ammo to load up if TLT tests 90…i will be supporting the market there with HEAVY buying…remember i am UK…….lol
remember i can’t buy 100 shares cause my whole account isnt worth that so I am a small guy carrying a big leverage thanks to options
if we break below $94 i might sell.
we had the $1 gap from 14th to the 17th that might want to be filled.
that’s why i said i wanted to wait a bit more. if it passes 94.35 and holds i’ll be more than happy
here comes c wave
When SPY 5min MACD trendlines hit the zero line, it could bounce.
you UK’s!! damn it 21 cents and i might get knocked