If you are bearish, you have company – lots of it.
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That’s why I can’t stand watching Cramer. He’s sooo irritating.
He asks why everyone is going to be surprised tomorrow when they should expect bad news from the get-go. If anyone should understand why, it should be him.
Has he forgotten how the “game” is played? That’s the dynamics of the market. That’s what makes it great for trading. If there was no volatility, for whatever reason – or no reason, we’d all have to pack it up and go home.
Cramer… get a job! Give your show up to ease our suffering.
Now I won’t be able to sleep I’m so fumed.
The “you have company” link was great. So many bears could get caught in a x-fire. I may have to watch Cramer to see how “he told us so”.
Thanks George. So far, so good. Booh-yeah skeedaddy.
Nice day for me all around.
I agree Matt, looking for dip below 1040 and that’ll unload all of the SDS I’ve put together from 1106 and 1057. I’ll still hold just a sliver of the core position in case something goes haywire, but that much company makes a bear like me worry a little. Once one side of the boat gets crowded, getting out and going to cash (me) or going long (P and G) seems to be the play. Still see downside from here, but I’m thinking a bounce or short squeeze may be in the cards sometime soon. I’ve made nice coin on this move, and it is getting a little long in the tooth, time to play cautiously.
GLTA and TGIF
Overnight crew is doing their best to pump up the indices/futes though. Japan down .50% (sympathy from our move today, I know) but futures hitting daily highs as I write this. Late POMO money going to work when the volumes are lighter?
Hey, it could be worse; interest could be “up” while the stock market’s down:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRfZ4ZkXWkQ
News from the “hole” today won’t get the crops out of the field.
spoos up 7.5 as i type…i just want to get out of GLW at cost, then i’ll go back to palling around with all the bears !
Mitch, how long till hockey preseason games ? can’t wait, after all nearly no place but up for a 29th place team !
Mitch,
I wouldn’t have picked the “hole” to discuss the economy. Speaking of whch (economy), more trading regulations and tracking from the Fed will be introduced next year. I’ll post a link to the “Emergency Economic Stabilization Act” (meaning, more taxes and more/bigger government).
going back to the previous post on Mr. C, i see the screen puts out the idea of HNZ and ED…decent yield if you buy both, i noticed though both stocks are near their 52 week highs…
SPY’s 15min channel. There’s room either way for a move.
http://i37.tinypic.com/5jvbdc.jpg
G, the 15-min 36 MA held the move up from this mornings “great” revision…okay, less bad….
Nice work on the channel.
2th,
I forgot that today begins Month-End effect. That should put a few coins on the bull side.
The crowd is absolutely correct in the middle of a trend.
The RSI has plenty of room to run short and long term up,why has the market stalled here??
Tech leading up,now leading down
bob carver
any relation to MARKET CLUES
scotty
look at the spx futures chart …you will have your answer
SChwab conditional alert didn’t trigger at the low this AM, so my trade didn’t fire to lock in profits. Just got off the phone with support and the gap from 1041 to 1042.xx at 10:09 nullified by “less than 1042 gain 2 TS” tigger. Damn. Needless to say, I’m hot. They offered me 10 free trades….I told them to stick it..they give hundreds away for signing up/transfers. Sooooo…with that one-in-a-million shot out the door, I guess I’m stil looking for a 1040 violation WITHOUT a gap up that nullifies my trigger. sheeshh…..gotta go be a dentist and enjoy life in Vegas….at least I’m up at the tables! Thanks for listening. GLTA.
main ignition of boosters…
target 15 spx points higher
2th,
They should make good on that. I hate it when I lose because of the broker’s system.
SPY 15min channel update.
I’m ready for the broken uptrendlne to be tested with a SPY pullback.
http://i33.tinypic.com/1zp18x1.jpg
G
are your seat belts fastened for liftoff ???
G
want to hear something funny???
i now own more TBT than bonds….i am no longer bond king
Seems the crowd could run to 1008 no problem. Got the news cycle & tame vix. Why not spike it on down ignoring all the sweet talk?
p
You’re still Bond King, just in the opposite direction.
G
had to buy a few 10 yr notes here….( i cant help myself)
p
Bernake says there may be more stimuli coming which should help those SPY gaps above.
G
schwab is excellent….i had an order to buy bonds outstanding for about 15 min…..they executed it right at top tic on TBT so far and saved me 2k
The “Cramer Trade”: He sez sell, BUY! Where’s a crow when you need one?
But I regress… the day isn’t over yet. Just enough green to make bears purple.
p
Thanks to 2th’s rant you got a good fill. LOL!
G
i was selling TBT and the bond buy order hit my screen 3 seconds later….i almost thought it was a confirm of my TBT trade but that doesnt normally happen on screen….
G
you are a riot………..
p
TNX up +1.378.
SPY looks to be consolidating intraday. It has moved up after its 9/36/15 so no immediate Humpty.
phil,
5 yr notes were making a bump in the curve before the auction. Is there now a divet?
G
taking SCHX profits here……overlap at 1055 would be a problem…i am going to T M A R ….now
Phil: What’s your opinion on UNG here?
Mitch…
just glanced at 2yr to 10 yr and it looks pretty smooth right now
JIM..
ung was 64bucks now its 6 bucks…i guess some day it will bottom..i wouldnt want to guess when…i would look elsewhere to trade
Phil: Thanks. I am sooo tempted to buy some here.
I have new greeks for you Joan:
Delta -0.255
Gamma 0.108
Rho -0.005
Theta -0.021
Vega 0.025
Impd Volatility 38.30
I went ahead and bought this one
JIM…
go for a walk until the temptation goes away
Phil: It’s a beautiful day here, so I’ll take your advice.
2 th said today
“this move, and it is getting a little long in the tooth, time to play cautiously”
was that pun intended?…..
What a trading day!
Bob,
You’re right. Waves overlapping cause some of the volatility.
SPY broke the new support trendline and is back-testing it.
http://i35.tinypic.com/3322omg.jpg
ruh roh
wong way?
George,
Yeah, I almost got caught on the wrong side of that line. LOL. Out and in w/ minimal damage. I couldn’t catch a bid one way so I cut it back the other way and BAM!
I used the full body in that chart. Here’s another using the shadow/wick low.
http://i38.tinypic.com/fuopjo.jpg
G
whats your guess for monday??
gap up and create island reversal on spy to trap bears…or not??
G
i dont care .. i will have no position till monday morning…not playing that game this week……lol hasta!!
Shorts needed an excuse to cover to take profits and they got one. Didn’t matter whether it was good or bad news, the market was ready to turn.
Now it’s the bull’s turn to take profits.
The immediate looming SPY gap is finally filled.
Oops, correction – I was looking at the wrong candle.
SPY needs a few more cents to fill the gap and it could do it before market close.
Hey all – been lurking but not posting for a while. George I knew you’d be pulling for the gap-fill. The question is, when happens when that gap gets filled. More rally on bad news, or resumption of down-slope?
Nice Cramer day! I should catch his show to see what he says.
Here’s an updated MOO/DOO. This is a 2-hour chart in order to keep all the data on the screen.
http://i34.tinypic.com/rwt0qt.jpg
buzz,
Good question about the next move. My daily still shows downtrend until the upper resistance trendline is broken.
During my recent eye-busting studies, I’ve found that trendlines should be drawn following a chosen MA – or two.
My “X” marks the spot is done by drawing a line following a MA while using the previous low body (no shadows or wicks, only the body) for an uptrend and high body for a downtrend.
The object is to keep the trendline above or below the MA, wait for the next candle to see if it closes below the trendline.
It isn’t known beforehand which MA should be charted. The lower the value of the MA, the more whipsaws. On the other hand, doing both at the same time produces the best results. In other words, track-n-trade a 3MA along with a 9MA, etc.
For strictly daily swing trading the best approach could be to use a 5MA or 9MA and trade those trendlines. It doesn’t matter what previous candles have done, only the current candle. Using the MACD or stochastic along with a trendline is an additional tool.
Here’s a SPY example.
http://i37.tinypic.com/2w7eg6q.jpg
More.
While it may seem that merely using two MAs to cross would be a simpler approach, it isn’t. First, MAs lag one or more candles. During volatile price moves, I’ve seen it lag 50% of the move.
Secondly, MAs can cross during an uptrend or downtrend at a breakeven or loss. The same goes for any oscillator, like the MACD.
The trendline solves a bogus move of an oscillator. An additional benefit is that it is an extention of a MA if and when it lags. And it can eliminate using multiple screens the way I use them.
I’m still tweaking this and I’ll have more later.
Here’s the CCI I’ve been playing with on a SPY weekly chart. Shows the sell is still valid. I’m finding that the 8 SMA on the chart does a good job with triggers. Either the CCI cross of the 100 lines or its break of the 8 SMA is valid.
http://i35.tinypic.com/vzipee.jpg
That’s the 8 SMA on the CCI, not the price.
Nope Goerge, Schwab says their software (StreetSmart.com) worked as it should (and unfortunately, I agree–it was just the way the market traded that caught me with the gap up from 1041.68 to nearly 1043) so no fill for me. Since I still believe in the trend being down, I just couldn’t book the profit where I wanted to, so I’ll wait. Would have been nice to book the profit and sit on the cash to re-enter (rinse, repeat, etc…). Suffice it to say, I’ll be looking for a different platform to use that offers greater control over “unattended” trades.
Glad everyone played well on Friday. I learned a ton at the conference, will practice differently on Monday, and partied like I was 21 in Vegas. Pass the aspirin please…