If you look at an intra-day chart of IWM on Thursday, you will see strong volume all afternoon. But it wasn’t enough to push IWM into the green. That is a sign that the supply/demand balance may be shifting in favor of supply, which would be bearish. And the market cannot get far without the IWM.
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Hmm on oil prices
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxbootcamp/2009/08/28/are-oil-prices-too-high/
looks like they’re right
The chimera of chimerica http://www.newsweek.com/id/212143
Has Taiwan already been posted as collateral?
dax did not make new highs yet – this sets-up like a down day though a herd of bulls might well trample through the potential double top set-up as we have learnt too well in the past…
congrats again matt,
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/federal-income-withholding-taxes/
All European markets are green. Asian markets green except for China and Hong Kong.
Global uptrend continues.
Yerk, I think that’s the plan. Mercantilism, Keynesianism, Friedmanitism, Socialism and Corporatism in one big bowl. God help us all.
George, we called the tightening in China on this blog. We were right. But the world is not listening. I feel lonesome.
30 short
phil Says:
August 26th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
k….looks like they run in shorts on tlt into the close..i didnt sell yet but will by 4 pm…dont get greedy ….especially with options…..good luck
>>>>>>>>>>>K…hope you sold your tlt call…up wave looks complete
looks like SPX test of 1018 was successful…i didnt add to SSO because i thought there would be more correction….in a bull market all surprises are to the UPSIDE….thats just how it goes…..above 1044 could be explosive upwards
That Tweety Bird daily candle is getting fed by mama market.
Gap up on the daily SPY. The last time it did that I thought it was an exhaustion gap. That Market Myth was Miff’ed.
And so it goes…
phil Says:
August 27th, 2009 at 11:04 am
K ….seriously…..aig looks to be in a C wave that could quickly carry to 57
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> K arent you glad you are out????? 55.90 todays high …so far
GEORGE…. if the SPX fails to break out here….it may give us one more chance to buy at 1018….make no mistake ..we go up sooner or later
Matt, it’s about time you write Denninger a letter. It should say: “Courtesy to Matt Trivisonno!!!”
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1384-Income-What-Income-Is-BEA-Lying.html
phil,
I see the SPY’s gap today was filled. There is still the daily gap from the 20th to fill, then maybe back up again.
SPY trying to bounce off its 5min 36MA support.
oh phil if only it were that easy. i went back into aig yesterday. (hinted repeat of mistake but nobody caught on)
this time i bought a put instead of selling a call. AIG will go down before options ex
Month-end effect will be a carry through? SPY holding on its 5min by a thread.
K,,,,,,,u read my post about 57 quickly on aig….its there…..do what u like but this could quickly be at 99 ……once 65 is surpassed….i would not stand in front of this train ….thats all i will say on this matter K……
Karl the crazy nut replied this to me dressguard
If you follow the link to Barry’s blog you get both his commentary and
the link (and credit) back to Matt.
Phil,
I was on the urge yesterday.
bad day continued as i waited an hr for the bus.
then kept dropping things at home so new day new mind
Larry, timing & liquidity. Like in AIG – when the momo herd get’s going. And the will of the US govt is behind it. I begin to like Celente… And remember 1987 – all the ingredients are in place… Former communists in the federal German election use Afghanistan as subject. Biggest crisis of capitalism since ages and they have to worry about is poppy farmer protection schemes. Opiate for the masses…
Dax didn’t even manage a double-top so far, the retracement came too early. phil, agree with your 09:47, 1018 might be too far though.
George Says:
August 28th, 2009 at 9:51 am
SPY trying to bounce off its 5min 36MA support.
Yes sir.
and no phil my tlt stands and you need to buy it off of me at $97
Do you think Fat Boy can get back up the hill again?
Fat Boy! Go, Go, Go. I don’t wanna hear about no chaffing get on up there!
Negative pull-ups next Fatty. You ready? Then you can have an extra helping of some fiscal debt with “yum” “yum” saucey!
lol…
Fatty looks weak to me, but who am I to talk – SKF can’t pull up to the 5min 36MA without pulling a Humpty-Dumbty.
futures R1 as i said was 1038.25 well we reached 1038.75 before retreating to the P point of 1026.50 (we hit 1026.75)
so now it’s trying to bounce again we shall see
BBT double top, almost a triple. That last runup is getting long in the tooth. I’ll be ready if it busts to the upside.
At this rate, we’ll have a month-end Market Myth Miff. Say that 5 times while chewing a Tootsie Roll.
SPY is back-testing the broken 36MA on the 5min. Support turned resistance or is it consolidating for another move to the upside?
Fatty is taking down some “yum” “yum.”
Yerk, according to my readings I see the same as in 2008. Tightening from Central Banks (China, India and even ECB and FED)
The tightening has just started, but it should be quicker this time. But I agree, timing is difficult. And companies are still cutting costs. And global top 2000 companies are thriving in the current Corporatist environment. And that will be reflected in Equity markets short-term.
It’s lonely being short now, but someone gotta to do it
Larry,
Don’t feel too lonely. There’s a lot of folks hedging at these nosebleed levels (relatively speaking, of course).
Maybe hedge the opposite direction until the turn? I certainly don’t have any problem going short at these levels. Just a matter of time until the squeezing is over.
I’m looking for capitulation but that may not happen.
Almost a Tres Cruzars on SKF.
George, me ok. Also remember that USA has been the best market in the world in August. The rest of the world is not really following that much.
So America will lead the world out of the recession. Again.
K……i hope that you can sell your TLT @ 98….. i have piles of bonds ready to sell at that level….if stocks explode upwards as i think TLT is doomed
HA, now SKF doesn’t wait to pull a humpty-dumbty off the 15min, it uses the 5min. More efficient I suppose.
K…..you were talking about muscle twitches before….now you are dropping things….have you seen a doctor about this???it could be something serious
Larry,
You right. And For what it’s worth, the inverse has me salavating. Juicy stuff around the corner.
phil:
Speaking of dropping things ?AIG?
mitch….aig will explode higher….go ahead and try to short it now
phil the dropping is they fell from the holder not me dropping
btw VION i used as my comeback stock.
in at 2.95 in at 3.5 out at 4.01 out at 4.53
good for a comeback after losing my mind?
Phil iam thinking we blow 1040 if you lo0k at he chart we actually have clear sailng to 12000,i mean look at that straight fall last year,where is there major resisitance.
scotty:
Where’s the support?
Unless there’s a Miracle in Mattgicville, SPY will go down to its 15min 36MA for support.
K….good comeback….remember ..you dont have to make the money back from where you lost it ……anywhere will do !
George:
You think the Panthers have some “butter face” cheerleaders?
thanks Phil,
but i still think I will get half of it on aig.
K…….daily upper bb @ 46.40 AIG…..nice place to cover shorts
Mitch,
I’ve been to one Panthers game here. I honestly don’t know why there are cheerleaders. They can’t be seen unless on the big screen, which is seldom, and I’ve never heard them well either.
It was okay, but pales in comparison to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta which is awesome. I saw one of Joe Montana’s last games there.
Rah, rah, ree, kick them in the knee; rah, rah, rass, kick them in… the other knee.
but’r face chic. Everything looks good but’r face.
nice bounce off 46.40 AIG
paula:
Any good news as to your Grandfather?
phil:
Does overlapping that aig daily BB have any consequence?
mitch….its a test of how strong the market is….continued action outside bb is strength…
thanks phil.
i want to add to longs on new lows for today
ok forget the above….now i want to buy any pullback
Right, buy the pullbacks.
GEORGE…..we are in no mans land now…..i can buy weakness or i can buy strength but i cant buy here …..lol
ok george…..here is my plan…… scary stock plunge tis pm….bonds rally so K and i can sell our bonds….then we plow bond profits into stocks on monday
Phil,
sounds good just as long as I can dump my aig below 46
phil Says:
August 28th, 2009 at 11:59 am
K…….daily upper bb @ 46.40 AIG…..nice place to cover shorts
>>>>>>>>>>>K didnt you see this???????????
I didn’t. its what happens when you have work and try to trade too
Multi-tasking can be a bear sometimes.
phil, sure is iff’y here. No man’s land hit the nail on the head.
We always have a nice bump to the upside during the last half-hour, why should today be different?
ok…….thats it…try again next week…..good weekend to all !
thanks for your help phil i wish i read your advice sooner
Two Humpty-Dumptys in one day for SKF. Ya can’t beat that for a couple of scalps.
Have a great weekend everyone. So last week got promoted from a tri-star to a five-star doji…
Larry, this is the issue with all the liquidity. In real terms it goes into the basement, price wise bulls party in the graveyard.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presenting-liquidity-bubble
Matt’s withholding taxes chart is another green shoot btw folks. There is a second-derivative improvement visible.
Living in (bull) box. Intraday top @61.8%, close at the beloved 78.6% (0.03 off)
ok, tks
and here is todays wonderful trade
Blog Post: $VION; A perfect trade using the Morning Star Pattern http://bit.ly/BhHpc
http://thereformedbroker.com/2009/08/27/the-five-stages-of-panic-buying/
K congrats to your trading – this time
Your system is still long?
my system is still long yerk
K,
Nice going on your trades. What stage of panic buying are we in now I wonder.
George, compare C with S over the last 3 months. Then make the call.
Your site and Karl’s site are one of the many that I read on a daily basis (or more often), and I thought it really strange how he *indirectly* referenced your withholding data. That was a killer data source page and I think the action was appropriate.
Now I know what it’s like to make a post from the iPhone K. I’m going to show how I’ve been using stop-losses but I will do it using a real kybd.s
hahah george yeah its tough.
blackberry is worse because keys are so small
junglegirl you’re out there? Oracle came back from vacation and is a bear. Two dow views:
preferred: up done or 9670 (max 10495) without retracement, then 5081 in q1/10
alternate: 9670-9116-10495 then down
Sees risk of breakdown anytime now, will not go long.
next wee (sept 1st people expect this to begin but you know when most expect it goldman throws more $ into the fire )
the onion never fails to amuse
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2009/08/nations_unemplo.html
http://www.ted.com/talks/eric_giler_demos_wireless_electricity.html amazing!!!
now i know why the chinese are hoarding copper.
Green shoots?
Japan’s ruling party conceded a crushing defeat Sunday after 54 years of nearly unbroken rule as voters were poised to hand the opposition a landslide victory in nationwide elections, driven by economic anxiety and a powerful desire for change.
Unfortunately iPhone won’t use flash or java or silverlight which makes 95% of websites useless!
I’mgoing to jailbreak it so I can use anything I want.
George, haha
https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/displayPage.tos?webpage=thinkPodInfo&displayFormat=hide
they have charts coming up for the iphone too. they have them for my blackberry now but can’t wait for the new version
http://www.stocktock.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/spx-8-30-09.png
GOOOOLD
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/gold-nears-apex-of-triangle-pattern/
Shanghai down 4%. Down 21% from peak which means we are in official bear territory. Time for the local PPT to move into action.
signal signal signal
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14349.htm