At the risk of sounding crazy, I’m predicting that the SPX will close down by more than five points today.
Bulls and bears fought to a draw, more or less, on Thursday. However, the #2 leading ETF, the XME, got a serious beating. And with the futures sagging, the bears look to score a few points.
Matt,
ROFL!! Where are your anti-psychotic meds? Yep, let’s live dangerously and close this thing DOWN.
5pts is like a crash, isn’t it?
Any retracement above ~1025 does not damage the bullish case. As I want to know the reason for the name of the beer box – and the exact variety: Go bulls
Trendline update for possible SPY upside target. I did this myself so take it with a grain of salt – just something to think about.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=89be0ca2-0de2-4d0e-8508-158fd215df59
YERK….i disagree….overlap of 1039.37 is line in sand http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/2009-09-17_spx.png
if i am correct 1123 will be seen before 1039.37
overlap of 1039 will send me running for the hills
NOTE…..i do not agree with the wave labels on the chart…i believe the rally from 991 is wave 3….therefore it CANNOT overlap top of wave 1 at 1039.37
phil,
That top yellow line on your link looks to be the same place my trendline is crossing.
GEORGE….ok sounds good …lets go there
oh no buster. we aint going ANYWHERE.
futures did break upwards 1063 but i am with Matt. we need an OPEX day to be down.
as far as SPX it’s bouncing off of 1066
next support below is
1063
1059
1052
1046
1039
We’ll see when we fill this gap.
Which Gap George
The intraday morining gap up. It’s filled now.
Jim,
DId you get SRS yesterday on the 9/36/15?
Dollar is strong, and if it keeps it up stocks will have some headwind.
DOW weekly boll band @ 9940 is a good target
Stringm,
I got TOS but not from TD. Got it from TOS website. So, I only have 20min delayed data. Ok though, SD isn’t spiking and it will give me a chance to see how it works.
Stringm Says:
September 18th, 2009 at 10:16 am
Dollar is strong, and if it keeps it up stocks will have some headwind.
JG does that mean that we’re going UUP?
K…..dont get too excited about the dollar yet….the rally off the low looks corrective…..soon the dollar will turn and it wont be with a whimper
it will turn how?
I’m guessing strengthen
K dollar index goes up….i believe it will look like march low in stocks
phil Says:
September 16th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
DOLLAR http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/Sq4Hc-cZ7eI/AAAAAAAAB6Y/OgtAqE3H2JM/s1600-h/USD+Daily.png
DOLLAR http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SrGMCmgcidI/AAAAAAAAB18/sfD25B4JZeM/s1600-h/uup.png
K…..we may be in the rally that leads the dollar to its final low ….see 10:37 chart
thanks Phil
George
I called TOS and told them I would fund the account, of course I never did. They said they would give me live data on good faith. It didn’t matter after all because I got it from TD. Anyway try to get it live. Then watch /DX. It is amazing how the market reacts. The correlation can’t stay this strong.
String
you are welcome K
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/donnerpass.jpg
haha you’re hilarious phil!!
George: Yes, I bought and sold SRS for a nice profit yesterday.
ps ..note date on picture…….thats my birthday
SKF did one Humpty-Dumbty yesterday and it’s working on its first one for today.
GEORGE…i am going to sell into this next surge since we could be near a good correction
Happy Belated Birthday Phil.
you can wish mine by sending me a turkey! of course if no livestock can be sent, a bottle of dom perignon would be appreciated
SPY has a triple layered ceiling on top. all around 106.8-106.9
Below it has a floor in which it made 2 holes in already today. 3rd time and 106.53 might collapse leading it to 106.19 and finally Basement floor is 105.69
on a side note a more near term shows everything upside down and 6 ceilings and no walls
Ceiling measurements are as follows
106.73
106.77
106.79
106.83
106.87
106.91
so if my calculations are correct the ceiling thickness is 0.18
Looks like Opex pins, I am going for a walk. Tight BB are not my thing.
SOLD…….DDM…….hasta la vista all …..have a great weekend
George, Yerk, and Larry,
Vote now. Win a TBD prize.
The number of up weeks for the last SPX
cycle was 14. The number of up weeks for
the current SPX cycle will be…11…12…13
…or 14.
paula,
I vote 13 – dirty dozen.
George,
Thanks. You may win the big prize.
Paula
Did Julie ever find your grandfather? Hope all is OK.
String
Paula, 14. Q3 earnings on cost cutting, ZIRP and weaker dollar.
String,
Julia hired a guide, and they finally found
Grandfather. She decided to stay a extra
few weeks to study aborigine medicine
because she said Grandfather looked at
least 15 years younger…there must be
something to it.
When she gets back she will owe me big
time for trading her account.
Larry,
Thanks. You may be on the road to a big
win.
Paula
Maybe she can pay you back by showing you how to look 15 years younger. I could go for some of that too!
String
paule 13 is the obvious one, so I say 14.
did you see my question about chartsedge LT record?
String,
I’ve always been the better looking twin…
…but can always use a few tips to look
younger.
Yerk,
Thanks. You may have to split the big
prize with Larry.
Sorry…I did not see your post on chartsedge.
Paula
I’ll take 13 since it so obvious and appears to be free.
String
String,
Thanks. You may have to split the big
prize with George.
SPY 15min stochastic turning up.
13 weeks would put it right about that trendline at the top.
George,
If you’re right, you and String will enjoy a
big prize. I’ve hired Sprint to divide the
prize.
paula did you have the opportunity to backtest chartsedge? The convincing exactness of their visual presentation must not correlate with the validity of the result. In the end only the time of the peak is relevant.
George: expect an overthrow
Yerk,
I did not backtest chartsedge…do receive
their SPX chart every Sunday. Have found
that weeky charts change. Two weeks ago
they were calling for a turn on the 15th…
last week that changed, and they were
calling for a high today.
The chartsedge charts are one of the many
things we look at…and at $10/month don’t
feel like they are robbing us like some other
“experts” try to do to cover their losses.
Yerk,
Cyclepro was updated 9/16/09…two days ago.
On my immediate trendlines… 15min, it looks as if SPY is backtesting the broken lower line. The last time it did this it kept moving up through it. But with the 15min sto and now MACD pointing up, anything can happen.
George:
If you can get 15.56 on TSO you should be good for 15.66.
Mitch,
I wish I had gotten it at 15.15.
George:
I missed 13.56 by a .1 my man! I pay ask these days.
paula , thanks for the cyclepro reminder I’ll check that later
not that I’m scared about the 10 bucks, i just don’t want messy signals. The high today is my preferred one STish… But so far I don’t see chartsedge’s IT-top call to work out.
Yerk,
There is no perfect indicator. You should
look at a ton of them…and make up your
own mind. I like chartsedge because they
do the computer dycle analysis we used
to do…now we are free to look at other
things. Everyone to their own posion
so to speak.
Nearing double tops on SPY.
Mitch,
I don’t blame ya for hitting the ask. I’ve gotten burned in the past by market orders.
Have a great weekend all…take some
time to think how you will spend your
profits.
You too, paula…
Looks like I’ll be eating crow for dinner.
Mitch,
I got in at 15.60 on TSO. Holding for now but I got my dime.
Thanks
BBT might give another dime by quitting time.
Yeah, I’ve gotten a couple of dimes from BBT today.
An official Humpty-Dumbty on SKF and SDS.
SPY double tops.
Maybe I’ll eat chickin’ instead of crow.
George:
Are those hernias healing pretty good for ‘ya?
your government at work, George. You get fed well – might have a bad aftertaste though.
I saw about 9-10 road construction projects today. they’re growing by the day.
looks like stimulus is stimulating
doji inside a doji – now that’s indecision
Yerk
Maybe it is not indecision, maybe it was decided to be that way OPEX. Conspiracy theory and all. Another whooping 138 mil shares of SPY traded today. GE almost traded as many as SPY.
String
Mitch,
Yes, healing up well, thanks. I started back to the gym this week. Light loads though. Still have to take it easy and not more than 10lbs. Then I can gradually build up. This time next year I will be like new.
George
At our age like new is an Oxymoron.
String
How was that for a range bound day!!
spx missed the level by .02 ct – all boxed in.
Great weekend, everyone
This was a very bearish day. Doesn’t bode well for the bulls next week(s).
Btw, I tried to add “pulling a dressguard” to the urbandictionary. So far it hasn’t been approved and probably won’t be. So it’s more an insider joke on this blog.
George:
Good report. I guess you get up from your PC like a sloth when you have to move.
Yerk:
Good weekend to you as well. Have fun!
what was your defenition?
My prediction up at the top didn’t come true, but the SPX was saved by the bell. Otherwise, it would have closed in the red just like the futures did at 4:15pm.
Stringm,
“Like new” for my age group.
pulling a dressguard = stop trading in the stock market (for any reason)
Mitch,
I was like a sloth a few weeks ago but now I move more like a chimp.
I got out of TSO just in time. Price wasn’t moving much today on most things.
George:
RE: TSO
I knew you were nimble, hence why I addressed you. TSO is, and has been, a heartbreaker. I just saw a diem to carpe.
Dressguard Says:
September 18th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
pulling a dressguard = stop trading in the stock market (for any reason)
I made a longer explanation. lets hope they agree
We either have a blow off top Monday; or just start a big bearish week
new nigerian scam
partial email pasting
Normally the CEO Boot Camp is $2,295 and I am quite certain that after you graduate you will agree it is worth $5,000, $20,000 or more. However, we are going to do a ONE-TIME ONLY offer for people with the choice of TWO options to ensure as many CEOs and senior executives as possible can take advantage of this experience (and help us fill the room!):
Matt, Larry, Dressgaurd, K, Yerk, Goerge, and the rest
I pulled a dressguard a while back
Have not traded in a very long time. However, I continue to follow the market and peek at what Matt writes every day or so. Don’t have time to read all the comments though. Sorry.
Recently I have moved to Miami and, horror of horrors, am looking at buying a house as well as starting a clinic.
Fully expecting another round of panic in the next year or so. As for the market going up, the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Just as long as they don’t fall on me
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dennis-kneale-show-cancelled
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
oops sorry guys
“Kneale Pulled a Dressguard” ?
http://chartsandcoffee.blogspot.com/2009/09/ted-spread.html