Weak Internals and Weekly Candles
The market’s internals were so weak on Thursday that they almost have to improve today. The odds favor some sort of bounce, however it’s no slam dunk. The market can go sideways as the internals improve, and if it does so, then it may simply be consolidating the downtrend.
SPY, QQQQ, IWM, XLF, DIA, and XME are all drawing bearish Harami candles on their weekly charts so far. If they all stick, then the vote for a down week next week will be unanimous. USO agrees too.
Make Up Your Mind FOMC
Is it 0% as far as the eye can see, or is it tightening with “greater force than is customary?” according to Fed Head Warsh (in an otherwise boring and pointless piece):
“…I would hazard the view that prudent risk management indicates that policy likely will need to begin normalization before it is obvious that it is necessary, possibly with greater force than is customary…”
SRT Alert
Now is a good time for shorts to go on Slow Rounding Turn alert. If the market starts to creep upward, no matter how feeble the move looks, you have to take it seriously because the SRT just might rip your face off. See SPY’s intra-day chart from September 1-3 for an example of an SRT.
phil I don’t blame you – it’s getting risky everywhere else. Taking out two nearly two weeks worth of bench marks gains is nothing to shrug at. Captain Obvious here.
Could be we completed a small degree 5 wave down today, and now have a zz corrective up with the 5 and 3 just completed and currently on another 5 up. Looking to short it again upon completion of a 5 up if it looks right.
mitch….i would still not be too anxious to short stocks until the overlaps i posted actually happen….until then risk is to the UPSIDE
phil:
I’m hiding pretty good. While they figure this out.
Junglegirl,
Bounce to SPX 1061 and then down…
…your thoughts please.
mitch….good idea…lay low till the dust settles….
EVERYONE…..have a great weekend!……hasta
Only my eyes sticking out . . . hope I don’t get gigged.
well well well..
we closed in between 2 important Kman levels
1040.84 and 1038.65
(this is all futures cause somehow I love them)
we never did get to 1048 so resistance not anywhere close to being broken..
have a great weekend.
Paula,
Sounds good to me. The 50-62 Fib fit nicely, with 2.618 of the 5 wave off the 1041 low putting us at the 62 Fib. I don’t ordinarily favor 2.618 expansions (except for 3rd of a 3rd, of course), but here I’ll tolerate anything up to about 1072 (78 Fib). It seems that if we have commenced the next major move down, one more push as high as possible to trap as many bulls and shake as many bears would not be out of the question.
Good trading with everyone today! Have a great wkend; I think we’ll need our rest.
Junglegirl,
Thanks…have a great weekend all…agree on
needing our rest.
Toy retailer Toys R Us has eliminated the position of EVP, president of “R” Us brands. Ron Boire, who had held that position since February 2009, was terminated on Sept. 22, 2009.
looks like Scalp R Us remains with George as president.
http://watch.bnn.ca/the-street/september-2009/the-street-september-23-2009/#clip216301
K,
I know you’re keeping score – 95 banks closed this year according to WSJ. I’m on my phone so I can’t send link.
I seen George I seen
I get them before WSJ does. 
Bank Failure #95: Georgian Bank, Atlanta, GA
First Citizens Bank agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $892 million
Well, I haven’t learned how to attach links.
FDIC will go broke at this rate.
FDIC is Broke. It saves one bank and Borrows from another. LMAO. Goldman owns the country.
George
FDIC can not go broke, they have a line of credit with the Govment. They don’t want to use it. The latest thing is they will borrow from big banks. That is kinda cute. Big banks get the money from the FED for nothing and loan it to the FDIC at prime. FDIC will eventually be refund by the banks though. Then you will see all kinds of little fees popping up on your accounts to help pay for it. I think Goldman might own the world.
Have a good weekend every one, thanks for all the help.
String
Oh, I see how that works, borrow from Peter to pay Paul. In the end it falls on our shoulders one way or the other.
My New Blog Post:
S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doeable. http://bit.ly/WfwiM
K,
Have you updated your secret chart? BTW, that other chart you mentioned that called the turns, do you have it?
I like your firmness in calling the move on S&P. You really are the soup natzi.
George that other chart is on another post in my blog but last move took longer. Ill update it sometime soon. The secret chart updates itself. 3 red bars in a row.
Btw thanks. I think standing up for a belief is great. NO soup for you! Come back… Oct 1st. Hehe
Ha, can’t wait to see what happens. Fun stuff.
Paula,
One other thing I forgot to mention that I like about the 50 Fib is that if we hit it and then fall a 1.618 expansion of subwave 1, that would put us down around 997 (give or take)—in other words, back to the area of early September. This would agree with classic TA as a target area. Makes for a tidy chart. Next week will be very interesting.
Junglegirl,
Thanks. 3 AM…you must live in a different part
of the world than I do. I was sawing the Z’s
at 3 AM.
Agree…next week will be interesting. I checked
the forecast of a person who is a Gann expert.
He thinks the current correction is daily…SPX
will not go below 1027…market will move up
into a top around Oct 6…have a weekly correction
…and then move to new highs.
Hope you’re having a great weekend…get some
rest…be ready for next week.
Junglegirl,
Guess I need more rest. Screwed up spelling
on…world.
Take care…enjoy.
Junglegirl,
Forget last post…my PC screwed up my
first post. Am going back to bed.
We are all just too addicted to this blog even on weekends!!!
Iran agrees to show their nuke site to inspectors. Def a greenshoot moment. Don’t know about oil though that might put it at $5/barrel
As I see it:
Pullbacks here will allow those that missed the bus to hop on for the next wave up – if there is one.
These 3 down days on SPY have made one red candle on the weekly which has not come down to its 9MA (quick settings).
Until proven otherwise, this is a cycle of the daily stochastic and MACD.
Weekly would need to break through the 9MA or the daily through its 36MA to confirm a change of direction.