On Thursday, the S&P’s topped out at 888.70. That was only 0.19 points from the Fibonacci resistance level that I calculated back on April 12th (see the 4th chart on this page.) How’s that for accuracy?
So far, the XLF is making a bearish harami pattern on its weekly candlestick chart. The XLF is no longer leading the market, so if it drops a little from here, it may not slow down the rally very much. But a large drop would certainly be a problem.
Warren Buffet stomps on green shoots. From Bloomberg:
Four bears, highly doubt the current bear has stopped growling:
http://www.dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif
wow Matt, awesome
by the way for AUTO trading if you go to Edit>Preferences
uncheck the first box that says “Popup alert”
that was what I was missing phew now time to make it work no need for watching the markets.
and what would you think about my picks being updated once a week? if so which day of the week would be best?
I don’t want to spend every day updating them although sometimes I might
K instant notification by e-mail, entry price, target and stop-loss please
And be careful as soon as the patterns change to adjust your system. If you don’t watch it, you never now…
I have been a BAC customer since 1986. “Earned” a BAC VISA Signature Card with a 23K limit. I normally overpay my card and carry a credit balance (ie. my credit card owes me money…). Just received notice my limit was chopped from 23K to 8K because of “extraordinary economic times”. Is BAC trying to get out of the lending/credit card business? I thought thats what banks did for a living…
If this is happening to me, this has got to be killing the vast majority of consumers who rely on those high credit limts to fuel their spending. The “credit contraction” Merideath talks about is still in full swing, just can’t believe it landed at my doorstep…
I like this comparison of bear market rallies: http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090501.htm?T
What strikes me is they got steeper and faster during the long march into the hole. If you consider ’30 to be an outlier, we have so far witnessed a normal correction.
the big rally in 30 was different as dividends were still rising until mid-1930. I think Mr Buffet took care of that hope today. Beating zero expectations is not equal to attractive p/e-levels trailing or forward looking.
Randall, you are not alone. They need to bring exposure down by all means. Govt funding far insufficient to prop everything up. This long-only HF specialising in banks and automotive with further expansion plans can’t solve the problem that you don’t lenders who cannot repay the loan. Short squeezes are no solution but will end as a problem.
Matt,
an spx picture…
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hE3pp93emY0/SfyLqoDayCI/AAAAAAAAAHs/kWuB5ZhV2lo/s1600-h/channel_2patterns.GIF
We are going to hit the apex of the rising wedge we not really fell out but never got back in on Monday. Reversal time? The last 10 minutes on Friday look phony to me. Moving the stress test results back from Monday makes sense if the real expects know the market will move down on Monday.
Almost everything pointing down now – except for the EW count rocket up to 1000 (as long as we do not breach Friday’s lows) and the dollar might drag the commodities with it. They look ready for a breakout.
Mauldin’s Frontline Thoughts is a good read today. He looks at “Sell In May and Go Away,” and breaks out the seasonal action in secular bulls v. secular bears. Basically, he states, “May through October in secular bear cycles has been ugly.”
He also looks at the “numbers” we’ve been getting, and shoots down green shoots.
The root of the problem – but (when) will there be action?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRGmF1WqsCgA&refer=home
These are the long-term dynamics imo aggravated by the now dominant approach to save the market – how many of the tiny dominos can be killed without affecting the cherished big ones?
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/05/derivatives-and-attempted-state-capture-in-kazakhstan/
[The strategic rationale of risking to alienate a key oil-producing country in Central Asia is escaping me]
Thanks Yerk, for those two pieces.
FT Weekend is covering Gillian Tett’s new book: ‘Fools Gold’
here are the week in review picks.
K’s weekly signals
Mauldin’s piece also relates to this ongoing – let’s call it something postive – meddling with the legal rights of bond holders by the US government since Bear Stearns. This will have long-term effects, too.
Larry, thanks for the tip. Here is an excerpt http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/51f425ac-351e-11de-940a-00144feabdc0.html
I love the part when Bayerische Landesbank comes into play. They just reported 5 bln loss, needed 10 bln guarantees from the state of Bavaria and refuse to give any forecasts.
Long fool’s gold
K,
Good stuff. Thanks.