On Thursday, the S&P’s topped out at 888.70. That was only 0.19 points from the Fibonacci resistance level that I calculated back on April 12th (see the 4th chart on this page.) How’s that for accuracy?
So far, the XLF is making a bearish harami pattern on its weekly candlestick chart. The XLF is no longer leading the market, so if it drops a little from here, it may not slow down the rally very much. But a large drop would certainly be a problem.
we’ll see if it breaches 875. i got 915 on target for SPX to get smashed. then again I have my indicator still with a buy signal so we shall see.
on the other hand the BKX index which tracks banking or whatever is a sell since april 27th.
maybe banks are leading the drop here maybe?
with the dollar back in the row May can begin in an orderly manner
Not that anyone here expected a big dip today, but I see no signs of a voluminous sell off. I think today can be traded short or long pretty deeply intraday -absent a major event or news story.
UNG is doing fine Jim.
SDS being hard headed – hanging by a thread.
Ok, now I like SSO for a refractory period of time I won’t divulge. lol.
SDS Bull Flag anyone?
SDS about 3/4 of the way up to hit the top of the 15min, and almost there on the 30min channels. The last time, it didn’t make it to the top before turning down.
Hi George:
I was starting think this was a European blog (there off today)until you showed up!
They’re off over the pond for May 1.
Had to run errands this AM.
George:
This 15 minute trend up has changed the early day down trend to a truce at a more efficient level huh?
Inverse has been going up on the 15 min since yesterday around 11:30. It has topped out now and I’m looking for SDS to hit the 5min 36MA ro see if it bounces up much like SKF is trying to do right now.
I have another account at Scottrade and when that inverse SKF reversed on the 15min, I went all in with that account. I may have to bail, but right now, I’m in the green.
Looking for $80 on SKF longer-term.
George:
SSO probably a huckleberry over its persimmon right now but only by a smidgen.
for those looking at UNG my system produced a buy signal earlier today
am at the doctor at school and i guess i might have asthma wow thank you USA.
havent updated my site so you got fist dibs
K, thanks
MKB,
SSO tenincey buckeye move with an acorn cap for resistance. Keep them shorts honest is the market montra for the day.
I love days like this Tom.
Signed,
Huck
mkb…..look at xle daily with bb….saw yeterday that $xoi was down as spx,ndx were up……bought it yest at 20dma….just sold now as it hit upper bb….
Sure ’nuff, got a bounce “near” that inverse 36MA, now time for underlying to possibly recipricate for a little squiggle.
phil,
Will do – doing now . . .
The “market” will telegraph its moves all day today. SSO still moving up toward its 15min 36MA resistance. May turn over after that.
Huck, leave them poison ivys and oaks alone along that fence.
I’m wondering, once a pattern is broken, like a triangle or trendline etc., what happens – does another pattern take its place, should that pattern be monitored for something else to happen?
phil:
I feel better with a lil’ validation. Bot STO on the 27th let it fly today on the last move up.
mkb ..you missed the point…..im not looking for validation from you…that comes from within…i am pointing out that as traders rotate from tech to oil you can profit instead of chasing…today is the mirror image of yesterday….ndx down 0.5%..xoi up 2.5%….
phil:
I was looking for validation from you! When you mentioned you had a similar trade and won I felt like my timing was better.
Sherry:
Are you back from R&R?
SKF and inverse hitting some resistance of the 5min 36MA. Hmmm, I thought it was stronger than that.
mkb……lol……but note above from whence validation comes
mkb…..are you looking at tlt????
phil:
Yes, & the buck.
mkb….i am not really buying tlt….its the actual 10 yr coupon bond…look at the 10 yr june future… http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_TY.M09&v=d12&w=1&t=l&a=0
Phil
What ETFs do you routinely monitor for sector rotation, and what indicators do you look at for rotation?
String
mkb….see the rocket wave 3 move up…. since the top i see a correction ie wave 4….it could break 120 and probably will if a=c of wave 4….but it cannot overlap mid sept peak at 117 …or secular peak is in and i will not be buying any more
strigm….i just started doing this yesterday….lol….it just happened to work
George,
Patterns are fluid, so you have to be constantly looking for them to morph into new patterns. The lower the timeframe, the faster they can change.
Matt
Breadth has been improving steadly. That might explain why IWM is out ahead of SPY, QQQQ, and XLF – the buying is underneath, and not in the indexes.
The market is making a sort of bull flag since 10:30. If prices are able to breakout above 876, then a 100% projection would take the SPX up to 881. I say “sort of” bull flag because flag patterns only occur during fast moves, and the market is hardly moving fast here. So maybe this alleged flag will fizzle out.
Bollinger Bands are getting real tight on the five minute chart. The 10 Period MA on the hourly has rejected the the SSO price for 7 bars now. Price has stayed below the daily pivot today, so my guess is a break to the downside. That is of course unless it goes up.
Matt, thanks.
SKF 5min back down below the 36MA. Most likely MACD will hit the zero line and bounce back up.
There is some resistance between 877 and 878. If the SPX can get through that, it should be able to pop a few points quickly since there is no substantial resistance until 882.
have a great weekend everyone……hasta la vista……bayyyybeeeee
You too phil…
You too phil. Ya’ think there’s a short squeeze in that Jun 09 CBOT 10yr?
See just like I said , a break to the upside.
Matt
If the SPY rounds off and rolls over here, that would look to complete the right shoulder on the hourly. What do you think?
String
SKF bounced off the 5min MACD. Now to see if it is legit.
A “rope a dope” in play?
I’m surprised Matt didn’t buy that last SDS dip. That would be his style.
MKB, I’m a “hope a dope” right now.
String, that is certainly a possibility.
MKB,
When breadth is improving, it doesn’t pay to be short.
Matt
I’m not sure how to play those channels… needs more analysis.
At first blush, you buy when it touches the bottom line and hang in there until it hits the top line (if going down, that could be a lower price). Or, wait until there is a breakout one way or the other.
I should have said if the channel is moving down, you sell at the top and cover at the bottom.
what are traditional methods for curing asthma? I don’t want to get an inhaler.
K:
I would think adult onset asthma is not common. Allergies can do ya’ a humdinger.
The IWM is holding its breakout for the third day. See the chart I posted back here:
http://www.trivisonno.com/iwm-ascending-triangle
If it can close above 48.25 again today, that will be an important validation of the breakout.
The Q’s might be able to hold above their breakout level of 34 for the second day.
If SPY can close above 87.95, that would be an important milestone.
The XLF is the fly in the ointment. It has no breakout, and doesn’t look like it is fixin’ to make one.
This is right about the point that SKF, SDS gets smacked down.
Matt,
Weekly DJUSFN and XLF have the following:
RSI 14 rejected at the 50 last week and are pointed down.
Slow stoch > 80 (a nice place from which to fall)
Fast stoch> 80 with a bear cross
MACD histogram leveled off
ROC now falling (but still >0)
Weekly candle spinning top–small body showing indicision. Bearish at top of a trend, no significance if in a box range.
Overall, I’d say the financials look fatigued. The fly for me is the non-free-market intervention.
This is a 5th bottom BBT has had on the 5min today.
Thanks JG. So far, the selling in the XLF is light once again. Volume is only 75 million with an hour left. However, the Chaikin Oscillator dropped under the zero level yesterday afternoon and has stayed there all day today.
Matt
NASDAQ breadth has rolled over. It’s still above zero, but pointed down now. NYSE breadth may follow soon.
SKF 15min hanging in there, still above its 36MA with an occassional cross of the 9MA for entry.
I’ll be happy with SKF $60 today. Imma routin’ for it.
SPY volume is surging for this dive.
…or is that “rootin”?
With the shorts covering, this should make some good reactionary moves both ways the next half-hour.
$64.87 is the big stopper for SDS where a double top is awaiting on the 5min.
SPY 60 min is a smidge under the middle BB (20 MA). Would help the bears if we got a close under it, let everyone see it over the weekend, and then get confirmation next week.
BKX (not my favorite) showing weakness, too.
RSI sitting at 50 and pointed down
CCI <0 and pointed down
ROC <0 and pointed down
Slow stoch <50 and pointed down
MACD showing bear cross
I’d like a slow bleed for a few weeks.
And, of course, while I’m typing, they start moving the markets up. Does anyone else forget what an EOD sell-off looks like?
JG
I think the 2x and 3x ETFs have started to skew the EOD both ways that there is a new normal, that is not normal.
String
JG,
While trading, I pretend I’m covering shorts and it gives me a good feel as to where I would get in/out.
Is it just me or are moves shorter and slower than last year?
I may have to settle for $59 on SKF.
yesterday’s BAC signal is now a sell. aka fakeout
George,
That was an awesome SKF trade:
http://www.trivisonno.com/fridays-trading-may-1-2009/comment-page-2#comment-35612
Matt
Selling at $59 Boss,,, my cut-off time is 3:55 (self-imposed because I can’t trust my broker).
K, I still have you S(K)F Sympathy Shares.
Incentive for you to give me some good calls.
FWIW, SKF 15min hasn’t broke so far.
It’s a photo finish for SPY, trying to close above that 87.95 level. Let’s see if it can do it by 4:15pm.
K,
Have you been tested for allergies? If I am in a room with a cat, my lungs will close up within 30 minutes.
Matt
f I am in a room with a cat, my lungs will close up within 30 minutes.
CAT up 4.72% today. No need for closing up.
Hi Team Trivisonno,
how have things been? I’ve been out for most of the day. Still holding my SRS shares. Looking good.
Awesome trade on that SKF George
Not sure what next week will bring.. but 8 consecutive green weeks seems to tell me that the market is overbought. Will see what happens and since stress tests are delayed till Thursday, I’m not too afraid of holding over the weekend.
Anyways.. hope everyone has a good weekend and we’ll see everyone on Monday.
K.. I’m watching your buy/sell list so make sure you update it based on today’s action
K,
Pls. keep us updated on your list. Thanks for sharing.
All,
Have a great weekend.
IWM had a bit of volume buying at the end of the day.
Anyone watching UNG? I’m getting interested. It’s so beaten down, but the slope on this sucker is still pretty steep, and not clear whether it’s end of the month account settling that gave it a bump today.
UNG is a buy but i need to update my calls. and I will update it for you guys. I might add a date at the top for last updated
Matt,
I haven’t been tested for allergies. I think what happened this time is I went to the zoo on a 95 degree weather. in and out of buildings is strike 1 because of difference in air.
In and out of the cooled car another strike,
different animals and different smells at the zoo is strike 3 i guess.
2 days later here I am on a 50 degree day with asthma
perhaps eucalyptus oil in vaporizer will help and i won;t need to get inhaler.
Am never going to the zoo again! First and last time.
K,
Great idea. Maybe date and time, so there’s no confusion. How do you have time to study???
K,
Thanks. Indeed, it seems like it’s setting up, but it’s so dicey with commodities. they can set up forever, so care is called for. But there was some volume there today.The dollar has something to do with it, it seems, but not sure what the correlation between the dollar and nat gas is. Less clear than with oil.
One day, the perceived state of the FDIC may well cause a panic the likes of which many of us have never seen.
Remember mid-September when we were within minutes of going over the cliff? (A real cliff would make last October look like a child’s playground slide.)
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/
JG maybe that is what caused my asthma attack or watever i will call it
I should relax more now that i got a strategy in place for equities . like someone here said (I believe Dressguard) markets can take a toll on health.
School will be done in about 3 weeks so I hope to have some fun after
thanks again and I will update the page this weekend since it’s not urgent during the weekend.
junglegirl,
no panics allowed any more – read the Rosenberg piece shooting the shoots at ZH…
And GS is contracted by the NYSE to provide liquidity. Interesting concept – fox in the hen house.
Interesting comment here: http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/collapse-of-european-risk.html?disqus_reply=8909043#comment-8902404
Suicide rate among Swiss bankers rising.
Charlie, we missed you today.
K,
Man, you’re too young to be getting the crud. I can see me getting it ’cause I’m older than dirt.
You take care and remember, if you have something that doesn’t go away, it could be infection.
Suicide rate among Swiss bankers rising.
Finally some good news.
Yerk, thanks… I had missed that Rosenberg piece. Just read it.
Short’s megabear quartet overlay of 4 bears, including the present one. Someone else (Randall, perhaps) posted a Short chart a number of months ago. Well, here we are again. Foresight?
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-stop-thinking-the-30-stock-rally-means-the-bear-market-is-over-2009-5
“How Low Can the Market Go?” This was by H. Blodget on March 5th, but it may be important to keep in mind. Note when he references “today’s level,” he means SPX ~ 700 in early March.
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-low-on-shiller-pe-12x-normal-trough-low-is-8x-2009-3
yeah George I’m thinking of going to ER this time instead of school clinic. might be infection
StrategyDesk has a new release. My favorite change is the ability to see when alerts would have fired off on a chart.
thanks for the heads up George. i have had ameritrade running a few days so restarted it and got the update notification