Is Free Trade a National Security Threat?

We are about to find out – officially.

China’s embargo of rare-earth minerals last year looks to have been a major wake-up call for the USA. After all, it just won’t do to have our high-tech weaponry depend upon the kindness of strangers – Chinese strangers.

Or our low-tech weaponry. It seems that we are down to one plant in Pennsylvania that can make military-grade steel – and it is owned by a foreign company (ArcelorMittal). That was a bottleneck during the 2007 “surge” in Iraq.

The Director for National Intelligence has begun work on a “National Intelligence Estimate” to determine whether or not exporting our manufacturing base is bad for national defense. And that’s a big deal. Richard McCormack broke the story here.

This could eventually lead to trade barriers aimed at keeping out state-subsidized products from China, such as steel. So, domestic industrial companies could be expected to benefit, but high-tech companies too. McCormack recently published a story about Chinese networking companies, and wrote: “…many global telecom high rollers argue, in effect, that resistance is futile.”

39 Responses to “Is Free Trade a National Security Threat?”

  1. SMF says:

    It looks like you adjusted the formula for the daily 2% adjusted spreadsheet. What up?

    Where do you see the market going? IWM going to tank, like it should?

  2. SMF says:

    Never mind on the adjustment stuff, i found the notes. I’d still love to hear your opinion on the stock market.

  3. admin says:

    SMF,

    I posted an analysis of the small-caps back here:

    http://www.trivisonno.com/overshmought

    So far, everything I wrote there has been right, and the R2K still looks like it wants to test its all-time high.

    I wrote: “If you insist on shorting this monster, wait for 856.48 where you will have much better odds.”

    I drew a trading range onto the IWM chart here:

    http://www.trivisonno.com/iwm-down-fdi-up

    And now the IWM has broken out to the upside. Unless it turns into a false breakout very soon, the all-time highs of 2007 will likely be tested.

    Matt

  4. George says:

    Weiss has a book out – sorry, a new “blockbuster” – titled “The Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recession and Depression”. Hardcover, too, in case you want to pass the permabear down to your grandchildren. :) Hmmm, wonder if the cover is gothic(?)

    I’m sure the book contains everything that has been said on the website and emails over the past two years. There is a bright side though, the subtitle is “Protect Your Savings, Boost Your Income, and Grow Wealthy Even in the Worst of Times”: This is true if it include suckers falling for your shpeel.

    There you have it. A “professional” organization that has fought this rally since day one and is still doing so, because they found their “Holy Grail” of profits – fear-based SUBSCRIPTIONS.

    P.S. They got folks into gold right before its correction. Longer-term they may be okay, but the psychological takes a toll.

  5. George says:

    SPY is close to breaking through its “bearish wedge” upper trendline. I’ll call it what it is if that happens; Miff’ed Market Myth! “D

  6. phil says:

    g

    bought SDS @ 20.87

  7. George says:

    That bearish wedge is on the daily.

    The good news is that SDS is on its lower bullish wedge trendline. The bad news is it made a new all-time low. :)

    I still have a small position in it with a stop a few clicks below the lower trendline.

  8. George says:

    p

    Nice! I need the support! Ha. Today’s gap makes me feel good.

  9. phil says:

    g

    i think the top is in place

    now correction begins

  10. phil says:

    stop on SDS is 20.89

  11. George says:

    SPY price could fall to the lower trendline, which is lower than this morning’s gap, then try to bounce there.

    http://i52.tinypic.com/vxhz02.jpg

  12. 2thfixr says:

    Nice 3 legged drop….will it become a 5 wave affair? Nice calls Phil.

  13. George says:

    Yikes! I need to get back into DIG/DUG again.

  14. George says:

    SPY bounced off its 15min 36MA.

  15. phil says:

    2th

    took profits on SDS

    futures rally from yest low was retaced .618 in 3 waves so far

  16. phil says:

    we are getting overlap into territory of previous correction for the first time since jan 30….ie top of this wave is near in spx futures

  17. 2thfixr says:

    rally looks like it obeyed all the Fibs on the 5 min ES chart from 11 to 12 when it crawled back up ABC style. Next move will determine the move to come. Film at 11.

  18. 2thfixr says:

    I’m with you Phil, if the move down takes out 1327.xx (ES) then I think the top is in. If that level proves to be support, up we go from here.

  19. George says:

    Not enough bears to make the bearish wedge work out.

  20. 2thfixr says:

    You’re right G, the bears can’t even figure out how to shit in the woods any more! The anxiety of this constant bull badgering must be screwing up their digestive system and giving them constipation. That is going to one heckava DUMP when they finally go though. Look out! :-)

  21. George says:

    I know 2th, I need to give those bears some of my peanuts. Give ‘em the squirts. :D

  22. George says:

    Remember SPX $666? Multiply that by 2 = $1332. SPX closed yesterday at $1336.

    …just sayin’…

  23. George says:

    SPY gap filled on the 5min intraday. Nice counter-move.

  24. George says:

    SPY touching the upper trendline on the daily “bearish rising wedge”… yeah, right.

    Obviously, Joe Sixpack didn’t get the word that this is a market top. :)

  25. George says:

    Financials gap over-filled.

  26. George says:

    SPY twice rejected from the upper trend line – 3rd time the charm?

  27. George says:

    Yep, SPY peeking through the upper trendline of the “bearish wedge”. Now to see if it can follow through.

    History is being made right before our very eyes.

    Another Miff’ed Market Myth uncovered!!!!

  28. George says:

    BTW, it isn’t “Joe Sixpack” anymore, it’s “Joe Twelvepack”. They have the extra funds to buy twice as much. hardy har.

  29. George says:

    Hey, I’m not complaining.

    This rise to Pluto has been very good to me. I just like seeing record-breaking (Miff’ed) events. It shows that price is the main culprit.

  30. George says:

    Here’s the SPY daily channel chart. It’s been some time since it broke below the 9MA.

    http://i56.tinypic.com/2a9a52p.jpg

  31. George says:

    Financials are driving this move. Once it hits intraday triple tops, it could reverse.

  32. George says:

    SPY up .50c from yesterday, but almost up $1.00 from the opening low.

  33. George says:

    I went to the grocery store last night and a homeless guy asked if I could loan him a dollah so he could put it in the stock market. I said, sure, as long as you don’t blow it on the inverse. :D

  34. George says:

    Bullish engulfing – so far – on SPY daily.

  35. 2thfixr says:

    Don’t buy anything at the grocery store though…all the grains are up 2%+ today. And really don’t stop by the gas station…yikes!

  36. George says:

    But 2th, there isn’t any inflation. Ha

  37. George says:

    One more push to the upside to polish things off at the closing and really punch through that upper trendline. GO JOE!