In the first IWM FDI episode on January 11th, I wrote: “The small caps are likely to consolidate or pullback in the near future.” And that’s exactly what happened. See the green arrows on the chart (click to enlarge):
Not bad, huh? And now the IWM’s Fractal Dimension Index is back down in end-of-trend country (purple arrow). So “down” and “sideways” are more likely than “up” in the near future. We might have another scary plunge, or just a mild pullback like we had in August (blue arrows).
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 80.97 -0.90 -1.10
Natural Gas 4.535 +0.008 +0.17
Corn 375.00 -0.50 -0.13
Soybeans 948.00 +5.25 +0.55
30yr Bond 116.62500 +0.21875 +0.19
10yr Note 116.921875 -0.125000 -0.11
NY Gold 1120.0 -4.0 -0.36
NY Silver 17.090 -0.182 -1.05
Emini S&P 1133.75 -3.25 -0.29
Emini Nasdaq 1884.25 -4.00 -0.21
Emini Dow 10514 -24 -0.23
Thanks After, You did a good job pushing price up into MOO. I feel there’s DOO in our future.
Make it so…
SPY BBs are starting to tighten on the intraday charts.
http://i45.tinypic.com/kafu6h.jpg
Matt,
RE: “So “down” and “sideways” are more likely than “up” in the near future.”
Agree. I checked SPY and the past 6mos have been a range of ~110 points.
http://i46.tinypic.com/kd4vie.jpg
Well, there you go… I was looking at SPX that had a 100 range. SPY had ~10 point range.
…just seeing if anyone was paying attention.
Phil,
TNX, TBT, others look like they are in a symmetrical triangle. Could break higher which is the likely scenario.
Someone posted yesterday about Greese’s bonds having a yield over 6% to attract buyers. It’s coming.
Should be “Greece”. Not a good morning.
George, drank enough caffeine .. will to catch your typos this time around .. looks like another deadbeat morning.
Looking for XLB to fill gap at 32.75
SPY intraday gap filled. Could be trying to test the broken trendline.
MSFT doing quite well today, up 27c
SPY is up against its 5min 36MA. A breakout would go to new highs on that time frame.
Okay, SPY breaking through to the upside. My scalp has just turned into a longer-type play if it can hold.
However, the 15min MACD is STILL negative so will exit on a 5min cross.
Looks like some weakness coming up…
http://tinyurl.com/ya5quvs
AAPL up nicely too. They announced they would release iPad with wi-fi cabability this month and 3G next month. I haven’t met anyone yet that would buy one.
I’ll cut most of SPY lose here.
There I go again – capability.
George says:
March 9, 2010 at 9:00 am
Phil,
TNX, TBT, others look like they are in a symmetrical triangle. Could break higher which is the likely scenario.
GEORGE>>>>>>i just noticed that this morning….great minds think alike ….lol…been busy moving ..not much trading time…good luck
SPY nearing intraday tops. Has a little way to go but that will be the tale of the tape.
SRS needs to base a little more but it looks to be setting up ’bout now.
bias strong up. If 1150 broken 1225 in play. (the last time, politics stopped the advance…). 1130 support.
SPY almost at the top of the upper MOO resistance line. Booyah!
Actually, it could have hit it because the margin of error on my part drawing that line could be significant.
Now down to NEW POO?
No, down to NEW DOO! Gotcha
AAPL up over $4. And I’m not in that why?
GEORGE….bought gld 109.38 this am…now 109.83…
MOO/DOO
http://i44.tinypic.com/288xxl0.jpg
overlap at 110.18 should send GLD above the march high
phil,
NICE! I think SPY could go parabolic if it breaks through that gap.
…just a feeling…
GEORGE…SPX is again in position for upward acceleration…1155 could be top of B wave then more correction…or we will have seen the first impulse wave up and SPX 1600 will be seen quickly after a correction
GEORGE your 11:48 and my 11:52 ….great minds think alike ….lol
WOW….GLD rocketing up and about to OVERLAP….
LOOKING more closely 110.22 is the overlap level
phil,
Thanks for the roadmap. I’ll ditch my last 1/3 SSO on a 5min exit.
SKF .90c away from being a teenager.
About time for buyers to get nervous and take profits. Some time after noon.
SPY move up has been respecting the 1min stochastic thus far. Nice clean buys and sells. Or hang with the 5 or 15min.
Getting overbought – whatever that is.
Okay, SPY peeked above the upper MOO resistance line. Another tale of the tape.
MOO gap filled. Now to see if there is a closing/confirming candle above it to go to Mars.
New daily highs on UYG and URE. Wahoo!
The guy that sold all of those SKF shares will be covering soon! I’ll be like a lizard in a cricket thicket.
I mean SRS shares. Whatever… just one of those bad typing days.
It takes two months to get SPY to this point and only 2min to lose it. Such is the nature of ups and downs.
Exit SSO.
The daily charts of the indexes are straight up; well, at least the MACDs. The correction should be great, especially with the daily turning over.
There are SO MANY gaps below that need filling. A setup for a MOAR.
SOLD TBT for 43c gain
Nice Phil. Do you think it will be going higher in the near future? Looks bullish to me. Although, the US 40bln in 3-year notes sold today had a high yield of 1.47%.
GEORGE…draw a line between $TYX oct and nov lows….it hit it from below now…thats why i sold TBT
Yeah, Good call. Tks.
string…..just bought small amount of 3.5% treasury bond due 2/15/39 @ 81.09…..4.7% yield….i had sold it earlier @ 83
Ha, SPY consolidated on the 1min to try another move to the upside. Just may do it, too.
One thing I look for is price crossing the 1min 36MA while the 5min crosses the 9MA to exit. It didn’t do it this time – yet. Fair game for a 1min stochastic/MACD scalp.
Phil
You still planning on being around in 2039? I hope to have hung them up by then!
String
Phil
Was the CUSIP 912810QA9 ? TD is showing that @ 82.05 Sounds like a big premium over your purchase.
String
Stringm,
You ain’t gonna hang ‘em up… when you get digitized, you’ll be able to dial-in your new age on the other side.
George
I am ready to hang them up at anytime. I am ready for some of that pair-o-dice!
String
MOO did it again. Price followed the egg-shaped top and turned down. Unfortunately, no Mars mission. I was pulling for that. Maybe SPY will back off for another start. Better still, back down to NEW DOO, then back up.
Either way, I won’t be a front-runner but I’ll be there. Price don’t lie.
Ha! Get yer pair-o-dice on Earth Kemosabe. I mean, don’t rush it unless you need to. (Something like that.)
Okay, time to see if this is a reversal or correction. All the inverse have been rewarding with this drop.
SSO testing 15min 36MA support.
STRING…..yes that is the cusip….but i bot @ 2pm and it rallied about 1/4 point from then till your post …still ….paying over 81.3 at that point was a ripoff
Most of the inverse look like QID. How could anyone turn down this smilling face?
http://i40.tinypic.com/107ngd5.jpg
Phil
HMMMM! I don’t appear to be able to change my bid either. So what broker did you use? Schwab? Did you call or buy online
String
SPY broke through its 15min 36MA support, now resting on the 30min 36MA.
STRING…right now they are asking 81.4 at 3:21pm
Oh yeah, red streaks showing up… where’s K?
string …schwab online
Joan,
This is a mini-MOAR. A ‘real’ MOAR would be down -222 points by now.
Phil
TD has it @82.183 I smell a rat!
String
Thanks,
I bought some OEX puts when the index was trading at 523.25, do you think that there’s more moar to come?
string…i bought 10,000 face …..maybe if you are buying 3 or 4 thousand they are charging you more…put in order to buy 10000 and see what it gives you
Phil
It only gives me a field for input of quantity, and the price always stays the same. I will be calling them tomorrow.
String
Right now, this is a correction and not a reversal. So there will be some range-bound movement until a reversal sets in.
But, longer term, yes, some nice MOARs should be coming. If this was the real deal, it would continue down until the close. I’m in SSO right now for a scalp and it’s up .20c from the drop. More droppage coming, when, I don’t know.
Thanks,
Your thoughts are appreciated!
The problem is the shorts. They’re covering quickly and not holding or selling more. They’ve gotten burned and not aggressive now. The very slow moves are giveaways that shorts are covering, inch by inch. Bulls take advantage of that.
IMHO.
That post of the QID pic says a lot. To paraphrase Matt, it’s a spring being compressed and will bounce back up when it’s triggered.
I wait for those juicy setups – like today.
K is pissed at blackberry for yet another outage.
as per ipad… i’d buy one if the price is right.
http://www.pdablast.com/articles/2010/3/201039-BlackBerry-Outage-Again-Day.html
Any idea what the price of an iPad is? It’s 10 times bigger than the iPhone so maybe $1,800?
Doesn’t Obama use a Black Berry. Not nice to disconnect the president – K or Obama.
…just sayin…
I made them give me $10 credit. as soon as I closed the ticket the thing came back to normal
obama uses the super mode so not a problem. i’m the average joe president
$10 credit- good for you. That’s what I’m talking about.