Joe Sixpack is not happy about having his job sent to China. And he is not happy about our brand new Jobless Economy. He yearns for the good old days of a mere Jobless Recovery. But being faced with infinite unemployment, Great-Depression style, mounds of federal debt and the consequent higher taxes and/or inflation in the future, he has retaliated by putting an end to the Kennedy Dynasty in Massachusetts.
President Obama got the message. And now he is trying to get out in front of the populist tide democrat-style, which means persecuting big business.
So, as traders, it is time for us to think about how this tectonic shift in American politics will play out. A couple of things come to mind:
The IWM was only down 1.96% today while SPY was down 2.20%. Perhaps small-caps will outperform since the dems will get more bang for their populist buck by harassing higher-profile large-cap companies. Example: George’s BBT had a good day today while GS got hammered.
I think it’s safe to say that if the Fed were to raise rates before the mid-term elections in November that a White House goon squad would open a can of Vince Foster on Bernanke, and his body would be found in a Maiden Lane dumpster.
If you have populist predictions, please post them in the comments.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/top-ten-sp500-leaders-and-laggards-on-january-21
Joe Sixpack runs out of beer and a riot ensues. No doubt the public is infuriated by the jobs leaving the country. Yet, how very powerless we all feel – will Brown be any better? He probably thinks “free trade” is a good thing. For whom? Not Joe. Time will tell, and count me disgusted with the financial system that allowed this catastrophe. It seems that the “monied interests” do what they want (not really suprised) and let the public pay. Think I’ll go buy some stock.
http://blogs.aljazeera.net/americas/2010/01/16/who-will-lead-haitis-security
Thank goodness for stops! Just wished I would have had buys on the inverse at the bottom of the megaphone, but couldn’t get internet today at the office. Since I had stops and was mostly in cash, no anxiety here. In fact, I’m ticked VXX didn’t spike like crazy! That ETN just isn’t performing like I expected. Thank goodness I sold mine at a small profit last week!
ure right phil. bears are overexcited
Prechter calls for a crash … again
TCI says a low is 1 to 2 trading days away.
Pardon my ingorance, but who is TCI?
Wimler,
Trader Confidence Index(TCI).
Smart Trader blog pointed out that the moves have been larger and larger Fib numbers (13 points, 21 points, and 34 points so far). Well, it doesn’t take a Fib genius (like Matt) to figure out that the next number is 55 (21 + 34).
1115 +55 = 1170
1115 – 55 = 1060
If you can find the right direction, money can and will be made. Bulls are looking for 1170+ and bears are looking at around 1050 as a first leg down. Both seem within reach of this Fib theory. Good trading all.
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 76.17 +0.09 +0.12
Natural Gas 5.609 +0.041 +0.73
Corn 372.00 +4.00 +1.08
Soybeans 954.00 +4.00 +0.42
30yr Bond 118.65625 +0.03125 +0.03
10yr Note 117.8125 +0.40625 +0.34
NY Gold 1094.6 -8.6 -0.79
NY Silver 17.45 -0.06 -0.34
Emini S&P 1114.5 +3.5 +0.32
Emini Nasdaq 1846.5 +5.5 +0.30
Emini Dow 10364 +26 +0.25
Thanks After, a little rebound coming for the underlying?
nas 5 below my earlier link…
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 75.85 -0.23 -0.30
Natural Gas 5.661 +0.093 +1.66
Corn 372.00 +4.00 +1.08
Soybeans 954.00 +4.00 +0.42
30yr Bond 118.875 +0.25 +0.21
10yr Note 117.8125 +0.40625 +0.34
NY Gold 1093.7 -9.5 -0.87
NY Silver 17.365 -0.145 -0.83
Emini S&P 1109.25 -1.75 -0.16
Emini Nasdaq 1841.5 +0.5 +0.03
Emini Dow 10308 -3 -0.03
Thanks paula!
Contrary to popular belief, the bulls are NOT dead yet (to quote Monte Python).
Wave 1 top of this last move to 1150 was 1113.69, so if that is taken out, then bulls are on fumes and likely snuffed. Similarly, if 1129.25 is taken out to the upside, the bear case has serious issues. Watch closely and trade accordingly.
Did a 30 min cardio this AM and watched the futures bounce all over the place. Time to eat and shower.
Here’s my SPY weekly chart with comments.
http://i47.tinypic.com/16igq5f.jpg
Populist comment:
Many years ago, I was playing “The Game of Life” with some friends. This game asked common questions about social and personal opinions. There wasn’t any strategy for winning, merely showing others what you though about asked questions within topics.
One of the questions I drew was “what do poor people need?” My answer was “rich people”.
Bev Perdue, the current N.C. Govenor, recently announced a program that would help N.C. businesses with loans; businesses that are born in N.C. and stay here. Bottom-up…
All I have to say is, “atta boy, girl”.
(I know, she’s a woman, but it isn’t as cute that way.)
Let’s bounce this market back up to the top so we can have another move to the downside.
What say ye?
Woah, BBT down $1.12.
surprised george?
what goes up must come down
big enormous rumors that geithner summers and bennie are gonna go bye bye in the near future. i wonder if that was a good cause of the past 2 trading days.
obama saw that mass, the most democratic state ever gave the vote to republican just to wake him up.
anyways am not speculating.. just typing what ive read. none too credible hence why no links.
Hug them inverse!
2 TH FIXER SAYS>>>>>>Did a 30 min cardio this AM and watched the
futures bounce all over the place. Time to eat and shower. …………………………..NOTE……..THIS is not TWITTER
If true to form, there will be no valid comeback until after 12pm.
MOAR in progress.
Man, SRS is blessed.
GEORGE……..just took more 10 yr note profits ….will let the rest ride for now
K,
I hear that! But BBT will be back, with Arnold.
GO PHIL! All of this selling and the DOW is only down ~81.00.
george …. we are 12 ticks from my 10 yr note futures target of 118.13…no sense being greedy
George says:
January 22, 2010 at 10:17 am
K,
I hear that! But BBT will be back, with Arnold.
GEORGE……” I am a learning computer..the more contact i have with humans….the more i learn”
Coming back sooner for a quickie, possibly because of the speed of the drop.
Phil,
So YOU’RE a computer. Ah Ha, I knew your posts were machine-like responses.
Unhug them inverses for a momentary lapse of profits. Activity is brisk, more so than it has been lately. Must come with volatility.
Megaphone in progress…
Paula,
I may need another Brinks if this keeps up.
GEORGE..that was arnolds line in TERMINATOR
Phil,
Yes, I tought Arnold everything he knows.
Why will small caps outperform when banks aren’t lending? Small cap companies don’t have access to the junk bond market? Where do they get the funding to grow?
Compare the IWM vs. the S&P500 and NASDAQ since the March 9, 2009 bottom. It’s true that the IWM is slightly above the both of those indexes since that time. Is that outperformance enough to warrant the additional risk imposed?
And then look at the IWM vs. those indexes since then. The IWM’s outperformance (or lack thereof) depends on when you buy. If you buy when the IWM is at a relative top then subsequently the IWM underperforms the broader indexes.
If SPY 5min stochastic can turn up here, will be another nice counter.
WTF good point. I would think R2K would normally be the beneficiary of stimulus.
The collapsing support for Ben Bernanke is directly owed to the Massachusetts election.
In a note that was just sent out to clients, Concept Capital reports that on Tuesday night, Democrats nervously caucused, and Senators voiced their concerns about supporting Bernanke.
Hill sources tell them the nomination is now seriously in doubt, though they’re not quite ready to proclaim him cooked.
Harry Reid (who is extremely weakened) apparently met with Bernanke today to lend him support and plot strategy.
Not surprisingly, Chris Dodd is another huge ally of Bernanke right now.
George,
You got it. Another Brinks long bed truck
is on its way.
Good trading!
-111 or -33 today george?
i meant -333 but i guess -33 might be right? who knows. if thats what my brain likes then i gotta stand by it
Julie… THanks!
Current $12.4 Trillion Debt Ceiling To Be Breached… In March
K,
Either one of those is good. A number big enought to fit on a long-bed truck, the better.
Today is the day that the wheels are falling off for Bernanke. He may not survive the weekend.
Dow Jones, via CNBC, says Harry Reid is now “undecided” on Ben Bernanke (already Barbara Boxer and Russ Feingold have signaled their intention to vote “no” today).
Why is Reid so hesitant?
Maybe it’s because, according to Nate Silver, his re-election odds are down to 20%.
LOL wow everyone hit that late january no-booze period and Massachusetts provided the cold shower to make them conscious and awake.
K,
Tops here on inverse,,, may have to put a “+” sign on that number if there is a MOAR.
George,
see you in either side of your brinks truck.
1:36 i got trend down signal for dow. until i get the go ahead i aint putting the +
GEORGE….SPX has not closed outside lower daily boll band since march rally started…we are outside now …will it close there???…important info coming at the close
K,
I meant it can go either way with tops/bottoms – like a breakout/down. SPY has a lot of work before it can do a MOAR.
IWM outperforming SPY again…
george and all…..have a great weekend…….HASTA la vista..BAY BEE
You too, Phil.
The SPX has sliced halfway through the rectangle so far. You would think that such a level would have been stronger support…
matt, 1100 is where its at
psychological level
“IWM outperforming SPY again…”
That’s true. If it continues through day’s end it will be the first time IWM has outperformed SPY in the past five days. At least that’s what Yahoo’s 5 day chart shows.
K, how about -222?
Now where did I put my Dow 10,000 hat…
No George. that already happened yesterday.
K,
Your 1100 prediction only had a shelf-life of 15 minutes.
Matt
No Deja-Vous?
not calling a bottom for today but just pointing out DOW D2 is at 10203.75
see you in 30 mins
-222? ok fine george but -111 seems like the mood for today
Gold stocks showing great relative strength today. That’s where to be in the coming bounce. I’ll guess we will bounce around 1085 on Monday.
you know what the amazing thing is?
the school fund was up over 1k a few days ago and now we’re up $27 dollars yes!
I hope i take over monday.
Back here, I said that the rectangle should prove to be “nearly impenetrable support” in the future. Let’s see how well that prediction works out.
did i say 27? i meant $5.12
Junglegirl,
Congrats! A Brinks truck filled with
cash is on its way to you.
Have a great weekend.
K,
You neef to take over the Boston Globe.
Paula, it’s right across the street from my school. but what do I do with it? burn it down for insurance money and play the market?
A failure to spread to other nations could make the Volcker Rule dead on arrival.
Suddenly the plan poses a serious disadvantage to U.S. banks, as customers would likely prefer dealing with more robust European ones.
A high-ranking EU official told Reuters:
“What is key to remember is that the U.S. is one market, the EU is 27 markets and we are trying to encourage cross-border financial services and more importantly consolidation in both national and trans-national markets. The Obama plan would be anti-competitive in EU terms.”
SPY is at the bottom of the rectangle now. If it can’t hold here, then the November 9th gap at 107.16 is the next obvious target.
SPX still isnt at bottom of rectangle its about 5 pts above.
K,
Good analysis…but customers want to
deposit their money in a bank that pays
a reasonable interest rate…like prior
to 1993.
Sounds like you have a good plan for
the Boston Globe.
Jungle Rule of Expansive Elasticity: expect your indicators to stretch to places you haven’t yet experienced over this next year to year-plus.
so this coming thursday i will get rid of all our fund’s ETF’s as i no longer care. might buy some SPY with them like we previously planned here.
20% of whole portfolio sound like a good hedge? i forgot what we decided on here when i last talked. and the search box sucks (sorry matt
)
Paula… THANKS!
“…but customers want to deposit their money in a bank that pays a reasonable interest rate…like prior to 1993.”
AMEN!
George, you nailed it with -222 but i still nailed it by calling triple digit triplet haha
The trend is your friend….
also did i say +5.12 ? I meant -80 !!!
yeah this is the current america but i will ask obama for a bailout.
K,
The search box doesn’t search comments. I could improve it, but the server logs show that practically nobody uses it anyway.
Matt
Yep…. “triple digit triplet” was it…
i have tried to use it Matt but it doesnt work and since we mostly share info on comments it would help. I wouldnt really put a lot into it if its not a 15 minute job.
would rather have you stay on the financial side rather than get back to your programing.
Jim, your 3:29, yeah, will watch GDXJ and fnv.to next week…
the decline in the nas, etc….maybe i was trying too hard to time it and stopped myself out a few days back…
I doubt zero rates will last much longer.
A key reason for mass anger at Bernanke and the Fed is that retirees and middle class savers are being decimated to benefit Wall Street and the speculative class Zero rates penalize middle class Americans to benefit a parasitical elite and more folks are catching on.
The idea that hiking the funds rate to 1 or 2% would destroy the economy is absurd in the extreme
Dow Ends Down 220, Largest Three Day Drop Since March ’09
LOL
Union workers voting Republican is a sign of the Apocalypse. Yes, it’s that bad out there.
anyone notice GS’s high volume lately?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p57436693488
Matt,
Union or Non-union it was just that obama needed a wakeup call and that was topped by the coakley disasters one after another. from calling schilling a yankee fan (yeah we deeply love that man) to other blunders.
not ranting just giving a mass perspective.
Aren’t teachers union workers? If so, they got a huge payoff with stimulus money to save some of their jobs across the land. I wonder how they vote.
One of the best things to happen lately is for Junglegirl’s Vix trick to sprout wings besides union workers voting republican.
now this is something i’m willing to do
http://www.getrichslick.com/if-bernanke-is-confirmed-im-closing-all-my-big-bank-accounts/1850/
Banks 5-9 for 2010 just failed
Bank Closing Information – January 22, 2010
Columbia River Bank, The Dalles, OR
Evergreen Bank, Seattle, WA
Charter Bank, Santa Fe, NM
Bank of Leeton, Leeton, MO
Premier American Bank, Miami, FL
Tim Geithner’s “Financial Crisis” Declassified Phone Log Released
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tim-geithners-financial-crisis-declassified-phone-log-released
Politico has obtained the phone log of conversations performed by then FRBNY President Tim Geithner during the period of the financial crisis, or specifically September 14, 2008 through the end of the year. Some of the people called include pretty much all the usual suspects.
And also… who is the mysterious ex-Goldmanite Dan Jester and why was he, together with Hank Paulson, the first two people Tim calls the day Lehman files?
i love the straight talk casey writes each weekend
http://caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=325
I am getting the feeling that we’re in for another exiting episode of “Washington’s Comedy of Errors”. In our previous episodes, Greenspan made good our escape from the tech bubble crash with the housing bubble. Then Bernanke is attempting to made good our escape from the housing crash by enraging Joe Sixpack. In today’s exciting episode, a populist revolt in Massachusetts moves Congress to oust Bernanke just when his ill advised policies are creating some wealth effect again, changing a bad horse in the middle of a bad stream. Be sure to tune in for next week’s exciting episode.
K,
That Casey link is great. He sez the same thing I’ve been saying about state taxes: The bubble of revenue, their wild spending (squandering) spree and overall mismanagement. That whole circle of financial life ends up hurting all the more in the end.
No discipline and no control. Shame.
If the SPX closes this month below 1085.89, we’ve
had an outside month…a super strong sell signal.
admin wrote on January 22, 2010 at 5:51 pm:
“Union workers voting Republican is a sign of the Apocalypse.”
What’s next? The Teamsters backing a Republican presidential candidate?
Oh, wait…