March 15th is a Major Bradley Turn Date

March 15th is the first major Bradley Turn Date of the year. And since the market has been shooting straight up, the only possible “turns” would be down or sideways.

And there are indeed flies in the ointment. The small caps have been lagging badly. The Russell 2000 is not validating the SPX and NDX breakouts. Not only has the R2K failed to take out its 2011 peak, but it hasn’t been able to break out of its recent trading range.

In a rip-roaring rally like this, you would think that the McClellan Oscillator would be crazy overbought. But it stands at -36.74! And that shows that there is no breadth to this breakout.

Where have the small-cap gamblers gone? I don’t know, but until they come back, this breakout should be viewed with skepticism.

Typically, what would happen in a bull market is that money would now rotate into the small caps. And you would have a day where the IWM is up 2% and SPY and QQQ are up only 0.5%.

The moral of the story is: all eyes on the small caps as they will likely call the tune from here one way or the other.

Note: The last major Bradley Turn Date was on December 28th. And that turned out quite well as the market turned from flat to up rather decisively.

2 thoughts on “March 15th is a Major Bradley Turn Date

  1. So we’re potentially 24 hours away from a MAJOR Bradley Turn date, and we’ve found these dates to work about 70% of the time.

    While the majority of technical analysts argue that the market is likely to put in an important top and either correct or reverse lower imminently, we should note that March 15th may ultimately prove to be a “market melt-up” point, in which the market accelerates to the upside through mid-June.

    Yes, the small caps and transports have been lagging… but a tremendous amount of money came out of bonds today (with 10-year yields shooting to 2.27%), and that money’s got to go somewhere. Will it be stocks?

  2. Yes, the Bradley Turn date effect may have kicked in early with Tuesday’s rally. If that’s the case, then the small caps should blast off very soon. We will see.

    On the other hand AAPL is already going straight up. It sure looks like a blow-off peak – even if it is only a short-term peak.

    The money that came out of bonds appears to have gone into cash. Maybe it wants to stay there and wait for a dip to buy.

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