Matt 1, Madeline Schnapp 0

Back on June 10th, I took Madeline Schnapp of TrimTabs to task for claiming that federal withholding-tax revenue had “suddenly started falling”.

Pure BS.

The data is now in, and any way you slice it, there was no decline whatsoever. As a matter of fact, withholding-tax revenue was robust:

Calendar May : $126.8 billion
Calendar June: $144.4 billion

That’s a 13.94% jump! And the year-over-year comparison for June was robust also.

What makes this even more impressive is that during this time the Census Bureau was winding down its massive workforce. On May 8th, the CB’s workforce was 585,729. Buy June 19th, it was more than chopped in half to 249,902.

So, while over a quarter of a million government jobs were being cut, withholding-tax revenue increased by 13.94%.

That is amazing.

And Schnapp couldn’t have made a dumber forecast.

TrimTabs predicted a loss of 200,000 jobs in June, and the private economy actually added 83,000. And that was more than double the 41,000 that it created in May. June was a very good month for the private-economy jobs market.

In summary, TrimTabs, which is partially owned by Goldman Sachs, got the withholding data completely wrong once again. And your only accurate, and honest, source for reporting on this vital data is still DailyJobsUpdate.com.

Note: There were two extra business days in June. However, even if you chop off the last two days of June, the total for the month comes to $134.9 billion – still a nice jump.

6 Responses to “Matt 1, Madeline Schnapp 0”

  1. George says:

    Ready for 6 years of down markets? So sez Robert Prechter:

    http://tinyurl.com/3xd5qdw

  2. jill says:

    U.S. Total Gasoline Retail Deliveries by Refiners(Thousand Gallons per Day) back to 1983 levels:

    http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=a103600001&f=m

  3. jill says:

    Hard to understand how withholding tax revenue has increased.

    From the latest Household Survey:

    “Not-in-labor-force” rose by an unbelievable 842,000 (change from May 2010/ June 2010)

    “The number of employed” dropped by 301,000.

    “The employment/population ratio” dropped back to 58.5.

    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

  4. admin says:

    Jill,

    Those are surveys. The withholding taxes are actual deposits into the Treasury Department’s bank account. The BLS data is notorious for huge revisions, and the withholding data is never revised.

    Matt

  5. admin says:

    On these two reports, scroll down to the “Withheld Income and Employment Taxes” line and look at the “This month to date” column. Both reports are from the last day of each month, so that column shows the total for the month:

    May withholding taxes:

    https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=w&fname=10052800.txt

    June withholding taxes:

    https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=w&fname=10063000.txt