Matt “The Plumber” Trivisonno

Look at this doofus trying to spin me into a typical paranoid psychotic Zero Edge conspiracy theory. Ridiculous! I am, literally, just a guy running some numbers through a spreadsheet. Sure, various things exploded in my vicinity during my recent trip to Iran, but I swear it was all coincidence!

I could have published my critique on my own blog, but it makes a bigger splash on Barry’s blog. The bigger the splash, the more people that come to my site. It’s just good business. I will also have you know that I was short the market this morning, and have recently been talking constantly about the resistance that the market would find at SPY’s TARP Gap. So, I wrote something bullish while I was short. I’m sure that the idiot commenter linked-to above can’t comprehend why anybody would do that. But I happen to be more motivated by integrity and making the best analysis over making money. That’s just the kind of guy I am, and it also happens to be one of the reasons why I am able to attract and hold a decent-sized audience of very intelligent people.

On May 4, 2009, I wrote a post titled “Super Fly” where I stated that I would no longer be reading Zero Edge. At the time, most of my readers were bearish, so I was trying to lead by example. I hope you people got the message. Did Zero Edge steer you wrong over the past year? Ha! Not only did they steer you wrong, but they steered you right over the lip of an active volcano and down into the lava! You’re just a skeleton now!

Note: “Plumber” is the traditional cover-profession of CIA agents.

Note: I did not go to Iran, and have never detonated anything larger than an M-80. That was a joke. Did you hear that Zero Edgers? A joke, damn you! I had nothing to do with this attack. Even you Zero Edgers can see that I have not blown myself up.

Note: I am not terribly eager to take on Zero Edge and its band of crazy people, because they are, like, way crazy. But as the Sheriff of Withholding Town, I have sworn duties to perform. Note to Zero Edgers: go back to doing whatever crazy BS it is that you do. But don’t let me see you ’round Withholding Town no mo’.

20 Responses to “Matt “The Plumber” Trivisonno”

  1. stringm says:

    Matt

    You got the firestorm going now dude. I know you know sic’em from come here, so sic’em. Ya Da Man Sheriff Matt! Have a good weekend!

    String

  2. stringm says:

    Matt

    And you can spell and type at the same time too!

    String

  3. admin says:

    String,

    Thanks, but I can edit what I write here so I can fix the mistakes, which you can’t do when you write comments.

    Matt

  4. Bob says:

    Then:
    April 12, 2010 at 9:17 pm
    Vix feels like another repeat of Jan. 11
    http://tinyurl.com/y4wn2uj

    Now:
    http://tinyurl.com/y7shpvz

  5. stringm says:

    Matt

    You can’t edit those on Barry’s blog, and you pretty much nailed every one of those! I look like Ned and the first reader typing here most of the time. I have an excuse, I am an old fart!!!

    I also had this idea today for us OF’s, and any one that would like to make a statement. I am earning like .000001 on money I have in banks and MM. What if like in the old days, the DJ on radio had everyone flush at the same time. Town ran out of water. What if we ALL took our money out on the same day. I am old but I think I could take care of it for a few weeks. With no money for the banks to use for free what would the outcome be? Who will suffer the most. I have ten acres here, and know how to grow food. I say we should see what the flush would do.

    I am happy for you, and I know I am just a rambling old fart. I do wish the Coor’s Lite twins would come back.

    String

  6. George says:

    Yeah, where are the twins?

  7. traderfm says:

    Good stuff Matt. Re: “I am just a guy…” … most of us “just regular folk” know that the government and the people who run it and the people who built and traded CDO’s and their contemporaries are completely out of control. Great site. Stand tall.

  8. hank says:

    Matt,

    Robespierre on BR blog said “Since most of the taxes are paid by the top %1 in absolute terms why can the increase not be the result of these people making even more money?” — Because the top 1% do NOT earn wages! They make moeny the old fasion way via Cap gains & dividends.

  9. hank says:

    Matt,

    If I recall the Cramer story correctly the Oil merger was public knowledge. It was in doubt because the government was likely to block it on monopoly grounds. The law professor knew the govt. folks and assured Cramer that the merger would go through. Cramer then bet the farm.

  10. admin says:

    Note to Lito: piss off.

  11. admin says:

    Hank,

    Yes, and he bet with options, as I recall.

    Matt

  12. admin says:

    Note to Zero Edgers: This is a place for intelligent discussion of the market, economy, politics, and the capture and cooking of skunks. Don’t bother posting any comments here, I will not approve them. And yes, I can tell who you are. Your comments have a tinge of, what is the proper word? Oh, yes! CRAZY! You can’t fool me! Seriously, you have free reign at Zero Edge, there’s plenty of room to vent your spleens over there. There is nothing of interest for you here.

  13. hank says:

    Wow! I mispelled money and fashioned in my last post. Still Robespierre missed the boat.

  14. hank says:

    Matt,

    Yes he did use options, I no longer have his book to look up the details.

  15. hank says:

    George,

    Hopefully K did a good job of explaining the option play. It seemed like it to me, but then my post made sense to me as well ;)

    K,
    Actually the Nostradamus bet was the $175 strike at $0.01 going to $16.9!
    Stay away from round numbers as the inferior $170 strike cost twice as much at $0.02 and only topped at $14.0. Sometimes liquidity is bad. :-O

    100 contracts of the $175 only cost $100 + $25 in commissions with IB. You could have easily asked $125K for them. For a cool 1000x gain (100,000%)!

    However, beyond a silly fantasy bet there are two lessons of some value.

    1. On a $185 stock, cover your $.01 or $.1 SHORT option even it cost more in commission than the $0.1. A stop loss won’t help much as the $180 contract went from $0.1 to $5.00 in single 1 minute candle.

    I was bearish on banks based on the poor performance Thursday.
    The $180 strike was awfully cheap at $0.10. At $185 bucks it does not take much to move a option that is only ~$3 out of the money.

    If I saw it was only $.10 I would have bought 10 contracts at the open with the following plan: set sell limits of $.15 for 3 contracts $.2 for 3 contracts. That covers the cost plus some of the commission.

    The trading plan was developed before I looked up the trading history. As it turns out all of those orders would have been filled and the option dropped back down to $.10 a good 30 minutes BEFORE the GS news hit the stock. The remaining 4 options I would have looked to sell higher with a zero cost basis if I was wrong. In this case I would have been happily surprised after my shower to see I was up $8,000 – $10,000. West coast time you know ;)

    As you can see this ONE EXAMPLE would have been a zero risk game even if the SEC didn’t help. ($125 worst case loss if GS went straight up) YOUR MILAGE MAY VARY. OPTIONS ARE RADIOACTIVE IF YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE RISKS. Especially if you are SHORT GS PUTS that you rode down from $10 to $.10 and were to lazy or greedy to cover the last $.10 cents (This contract made that move from 4/1 through Thursday)

    I’ll need to find an option screener for high dollar stocks with low cost contracts on OPEX day for future GAMBLING. Anyone know of such a tool? Joan?

    George, did most of that make sense?

  16. hank says:

    Just to clarify:
    I thought the $175 strike was a fantasy bet because it is way out of the money with only one day to go. The SEC action made it a home run, but that is not something I would ever bet on.

    I thought the $180 strike was too cheap at $0.08- $0.1, even with only one day to go.
    Essentially selling most of the position for a 50% to 100% gain lets the rest ride for free. Without the SEC I would have broke even or sold the last four contracts for a small profit. Again total risk was only $125 if the bearish bet was wrong and the stock held steady or moved up. (A reasonable stop loss on a short of the common stock)

  17. Hank says:

    While I have the blog to myself, recall I said AAPL at $250 would sound the siren? 20 minutes after AAPL hit $250 the market tanked. ;)

  18. manuelstop says:

    Matt:

    You know I’ve been following your analyses for a long time, and I agree with the way you are doing it–I pull the data from the MTS for my own analyses. I read a lot of blogs; and ZH is one of them. They have some excellent stuff and some complete feces, but that’s what happens with free-for-all unedited posting. That very fact contributes to their hit count.

    That being said, the main aim of the withholding analyses is to do, in a non-statistical way, an inferential estimate of actual wage earning and its gain or loss on a YoY basis. This seems to be missed for the most part.

    I don’t know how many thesis and dissertations I’ve sat on where 3-5 Ph.D.s argue for hours whether two means are different. This is under conditions where fairly high level ANOVAs and multivariate analyses are used. In the end all of that committee BS is a complete waste of time because there is an alpha error level that is accepted from the very beginning–that’s just a fact of life. The usual strategy of the committee is to recommend the use of alternative transform(s) on the data (aka “derivatives”) to determine if similar conclusions can be reached.

    The bottom line is this–as the data come in we will see if the conclusions/estimates are correct. Until then, one can only hope that the transforms are appropriate for the estimate. Any discussions until then are basically moot and accompanied by some degree of alpha error.

  19. phil says:

    GEORGE>>>>this is from BRIAN PRETTI “So in short summation, over the last eighteen months the Fed has printed an unprecedented amount of money. Far and away the bulk of that money has been used to buy mortgage-backed securities post the liquidity facilities wind down and it is crystal clear that the proceeds from these sales by the financial sector have been recycled back into the financial markets (record financial sector “trading profits”).”>>>>THIS is why STOCK market will continue to SOAR….keep looking for entry points during corrections