The futures held up well overnight, and the market is attempting to run back up to the top line of George’s triangle. If the move up is lackluster in terms of speed and volume, then that may be a sign that it will fail to break out once it hits the top line, assuming that it does get there.
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My 200 shares are losing steam. Humbug.
Your 200 shares did just fine….
Yes, I’m going to sell here.
That was a gain of $164. URE is doing better but hitting double tops. Time to exit it.
SRS will be tres JUICY when it makes its comeback.
Gotta figure, $200 a day is $4,000 per month, $500 a day is $10,000 per month, etc.
…just sayin’
Scalps-Я-Us
SPY will try to go to the double top on the 15min for a recycle of that time frame. Plus, the 60min stochastic is cycling again. So, more uppage possible for SPY if 60 min MACD crosses.
That was a very strong move. If the BKX weren’t dragging, the market might be able to run higher. The NDX has pushed above its upper triangle line, and its pattern now looks more like a bullish ascending triangle. The SPX is taking on its upper line right now.
These oscillators only move so far before they turn, the trick is to find the time frame that indicates that best.
Watiing to see if/when SRS sets up for a rebound. And other inverse, too.
added sds to make a 2/5 position, avg cost 38
I think the 15min has morph’ed into a falling wedge.
what does a “falling wedge” mean Matt? thanks.
oops, edit, sds avg cost 38.29
2thfixr,
Disregard my comment about a falling wedge.
What I have is an upper trendline moving down with a bottom trendline horizontal. Wait one and I will get the name of that pattern.
SOrry.
George, bought SDS at $37.64 ( a bit early, but now profitable!) Thankx.
Here’s the chart:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6312b20b-4b8e-4e99-a911-aedd14c71a9e
Looks like we completed the move up to the top of Georges triangle,hopefully we breakdown from here and not up….any opinions
I’m counting on it! Have 2000 shares of SDS riding right now with 1000 targeted for an exit near the 15 min 36 MA (36.93 at the moment) and 1000 held for the drop to 1050.
Euro just dropped under150
That will be a Trailing Stop exit point by the way. Not a straight out sell.
George, what do you think of the 15 min 9MA level coming down to meet the price. Will that add resistance and prevent the price from breaking through?
I always assume resistance and watch the 1 and 5min to see what they are doing.
George,
That’s a descending triangle. It’s still the same pattern, but now it’s more confirmed, so to speak, since the SPX was turned back at the upper line. Now, the presumption is that we will make another trip to the lower line. If the SPX bounces before that point, then that would be a sign of strength.
Matt
damn scotty. i exited last jight due to fear the euro would pass 1.51 lol.
I mean, if the MAs are overhead, they act as resistance, if below, support.
Thanks Matt.
I was calling it the wrong thing. I need to be more careful and just show the chart – untill I learn the pattern names better.
SPY 15min nearing 36MA support.
SRS nearing 5min 36MA resistance.
K can’t hit 1050 with a falling dollar.Wow look at the reversal
Oh my—2000 shares of SDS looking very, very good!
lol should have added to my shorts at 1091 but i don’t have steel balls.
scotty. i held overnight. was doing good and decided to check in. it was going against me and i got out with $15 loss. minutes later it reached its top.
I almost went back short now. goiing to control emotions..
hahahaah ok i’ll pay attention to class this is ridiculous.!
Nicely done, 2thfixr!
2thfixr can you fix my tooth for free?
my 20SDS and 50SMN arent doing bad either
Making breakfast…but here’s the stats: SDS buy at $37.64 and stopped out at $38.6608!!!!!
1070 SPX shouldnt be too bad and its at the end of my pitchfork
you heard it right i’m using pitchforks
MATT……now thats what C wave POWER looks like…..now i will be looking for a BUY point soon …we broke the thur low on spx and dow but not ndx….the leader…….
an option is up 80% (C $4 nov put) and XLF 15 put is up 32%
overall making $16-17 but its nice being right. later in my career it will be useful when Trading a lot of options and stocks
Thanks Phil.
The NDX is testing the 1754.54 breakout level right now.
Matt
SPX GAP CLOSED
A=C around spx 1064
Lets backtest 1076 and continue down
off to work…good luck all!!!! What a great day! Thanks George and Matt!
3 of 3 of C may be ending here
SCOTTY……is this C wave SCARY yet ?????????
GOING to BUY a little near 1064
shhh
just sold sso puts
SCOTTY…..what if i am wrong and its wave 3 down ,,,,,,not wave C
1050 to 1200 by early Dec,then start of P3
Reuters:
The averages dropped over the past hour without the weakness being attributed to any news in particular There are several rumors that some people are blaming for the weakness, however. According to one unsubstantiated report, the first-time home buyers’ tax credit, due to expire on December 1, will not be extended. There is also a rumor that Bank of America (BAC0 will have to carry out another round of capital raising and there are whispers about impending downgrades of major banks by S&P. None of the rumors has been substantiated but the market dropped as if something was amiss. Meanwhile the dollar moved higher against the euro. The DJIA is down 85 points to 9,885, the Nasdaq is down 8 points to 2,146 and the S&P is down 9.5 points to 1,070
SCOTTY……news is useless….we were looking for this C wave down …now they manufacture some news to explain it when it happens …riiighttt……ps my tv is OFF
your right news don’t matter…any thoughts on BIDU?
GEORGE…..$tnx burst above 18weeksma….even with stocks down….this spells trouble in bond land for sure…..glad i dumped my zero coupon treasuries……i am a friend of TBT now
FWIW The huge gap on GDX from early Oct. has now been filled.
Today really looks like a continuation of the market’s topping action, churning near the highs but unable to put together a sustained advance. P3 or C down is lurking close by, if the market is down for unexplained reasons, maybe, just maybe, reality is starting to set in. Still holding my SRS, looking for a break-out soon or a chance to add a little more if the market gasps for a new (recent) high.
Does anyone know if CA every paid back those IOUs they issued a few months ago? I think there is still big trouble brewing there…
Nice trade on the SDS from above.
scotty…..dont care about bidu
Sorry, Had to step out and clear up flooring issues with my contractor.
Phil, I see that wth TNX. I can never figure those things out lately. It is positive and the market is negative.
2thfixr:
“SDS buy at $37.64 and stopped out at $38.6608!!!!!”
That’s what I’m talkin’ ’bout!
The triangle has degraded, and the SPX pattern on the hourly chart over the past four days now looks like a downtrend channel. The NDX is looking much better. It’s pattern looks more like a neutral rectangle with a very slight downward angle.
So, tech is trying to hold the market up, while the banks are trying to drag it down. SMH is the strongest sector today, and the BKX is the weakest.
The 2 o’clock retrace is not putting many points on the board. However, the SPX and NDX still have uptrend lines on their 1-minute charts.
Thanks Matt. Now if we can define how that morphed into a down channel on the 15min, that will be beneficial. In other words, what to look for.
If SPY tries to head to the top of that channel, on SSO that would be a dollar move and on SPY almost two dollars.
SRS still nice on the 15min with stochastic gettting oversold.
Ahhh what a day. If I held onto my euro short from 1.5050 it would have been better
Breadth is not as bad as it was on Friday, and is making a higher low today, so far. On Friday, NYSE breadth dropped down below the -1700 level. The low today is only -1377. This is often an important divergence, though it needs to stick for two more hours.
NYSE breadth is degrading. Down to -1537 now.
The SPX may have just made a double bottom.
STILL declining in 5 waves…..not there yet
The BKX has almost hit the target on my H&S pattern back here:
http://www.trivisonno.com/bkx-hs
Matt,
SMN playing nice with SuperK
did you have a chance to get in?
That was a great call on SMN, K!
NDX…..5 wave rally and 3 wave decline on one min………..BUY
If the banks are nearly done throwing their tantrum, then the market could bounce soon.
NYSE breadth is still degrading. Down to -1680 now. The market is very touch-and-go.
The SPX is trying to hold onto a downtrend channel, but if it can’t, and the pattern degrades further, then we might have a bear flag.
42.84 on QQQQ MUST hold or stop out
1060.25 is the first level down in the Box of Bulls for the futures, and that is what’s giving the market support here.
The SMH is the only green sector, and the market needs it to hold up. At the moment, it is attempting to paint a bullish engulfing candle on its 15-minute chart. Film at 3:45pm.
INverse is stubborn here.
Lots of demand in the futures at 1061, though even strong demand can get steamrolled at this time of day when volume is very high.
SMH is getting it done…
NDX could be in 4th wave triangle……
By the way, you will often see SMH in this role: the only sector up on a down day, or down on an up day. It’s a pretty good tell as to whether or not we will have a trend day.
ACCELERATION up would confirm bottom now
STOP RAISED TO 43.02
XRT just turned green.
Yeow, nice heads-up folks!
SPY’s upper 15min trendline is almost $2 away. IF it gets past its MA’s.
I’m buying DAI if this is the bottom
hahah nothing like owning Mercedes in a recovery! they report tomorrow before open
phil,
You need to learn me how to use stops. Like, how do you know where to move them to and such. Not initial stops but trailing stops.
SPY is still more than two standard deviations below its VWAP. So, that’s a sign that the big funds aren’t doing much bottom fishing.
stop out QQQQ…plus overlap makes me lean towards 4th wave…..probably one more low coming
Bit of a TICK panic here…
GEORGE….I WANT out if there is going to be overlap…place the stop there….if i think its a 3rd wave the 4th wave cannot overlap the top of wave one..if it overlaps it becomes 3 waves up ie a correction against the trend
The market survived the TICK panic without making a new low. That’s usually a good sign, but at 3:57pm the SPX TICK hit -368.
K, you did good today.
I’m telling ya, you need to let the Wall Street University be your education. Or go to the Mattgic Academy of Technical Trends (MATT). (Boxes of Beer and party favors included.)
I’m sorry George. I will have to play hard to get with these universities.
Without $ I won’t get into them. No bailouts for me
I didn’t have a chance to finish I somehow sent it. I don’t have a rich uncle. Nobody has the trillions I need.