On Friday, the VIX printed a bar entirely above its upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart. The last time it did that was on September 2nd, and this is what I wrote back then:
The VIX’s daily bar spent nearly the entire day above its upper Bollinger Band on Wednesday. That’s not something you see very often. It happened at the bottom on March 17, 2008, but then again before the big plunge on September 16, 2008. It could signify the end of a minor panic, or the beginning of a larger panic.
It turned out to be the end of a minor panic that time, of course. What the market does today might give us a strong directional hint just like it did on September 3rd.
Sunday evening, the futures made a bullish ascending-triangle pattern which flopped near 1026. It did the exact same thing on Friday afternoon. So, since the jobs report, the bulls have have a 0-2 win/loss record.
Matt,
1026 was 30EMA on hourly. you have to Obey it before going onto EMA50 at 1030
as mentioned last time 1023.42 is 61.8% fib so should act to boost it up. this is where the 10 and 20 EMA are currently located too. will we see a 10 point more upwards? i’m looking at 1033 in the futures.
I guess if am asking for 10 points then 1035.95 in SPX would do justice.
have a good night all and a great morning (i’m still short and talking bullish. take note of it phil
)
2thfixr,
Welcome to the board. Does your moniker make you a dentist or an orthodontist?
We may soon be seeing a scene out of “Marathon Man” in the market—remember Hoffman getting his tooth drilled?
K,
Good Renko charts.
Can’t tell the degree of iii down or if it’s complete. If complete, then w1 approximates w3, which should alert us to the possibility of an extended 5th. OR, iii may not yet be completed. (All assuming we are done with the rally.) Who says America doesn’t manufacture anything? That rally was something to behold and MADE IN THE USA.
Junglegirl,
If you would like to know what some traders
are thinking, google…
…traders-talk wall street sentiment…
click on 10/4 post.
junglegirl ROFL
mornin all,
futures 78.6% fib is at 1028.52 and i can see we hit it straight on. the 10,20,30 EMA’s are now all converging at 1025-1026 area so that will be strong support and will slowly push futures up up and away.
thanks JG, I used to use renko but then i stopped for a few months for some reason. I always experiment with indicators but some i dont wrote down. skimmed through a TA book I had and pow it hit me .
Looks like monday so far is setting up to be a freakyK day again. please someone think of the children and make this crash!
one thing that might help my humanity is NON ISM manufacturing at 10am
have a good night all and a great morning (i’m still short and talking bullish. take note of it phil )………>>>>>> K are you trying to confuse me????????
JUNGLEGIRL…….is it safe??????? We may soon be seeing a scene out of “Marathon Man” in the market—remember Hoffman getting his tooth drilled?
well phil, I thought you liked confusion
I am seeing at least a one day rally thats all. I was scared about the -5 close on friday and so far its holding true.
K is there a trick how one can save the TOS desktop with all settings in all windows at once and reload later? This POS software is driving me nuts.
are you using the same settings for all windows?
if yes then right click.. select style then save style with all the studies.
if not all are same then you gotta save different studies.
ohh wait.. maybe you mean you want to uninstall TOS? hmmm not sure but you might have to do everything all over if thats what you meant.
if not once you save studies like i mentioned you can have a lot of fun
No, not the same setting for all windows. That would be easy. Like saving the whole desktop with all windows, ticker symbols, and settings and studies for all windows.
If you run two TOS in parallel only the settings for the last one to be closed are saved. So there must be some trick, as the software comes up with the last desktop layout. But where is it hidden?
create a support ticket from the top left corner. they usually respond within 5 minutes. although that might be after 9am but if you give it a go and find something please post here I too am curious. gotta run to school
ps.. ISM index please make me human by crashing the market
Yerk:
I’m going to venture and say that can’t be done. Let us know please.
jg – boy am I glad I didn’t read that image until this morning! hard ’nuff to get to sleep.
k – en passant you mentioned econ charts? post ‘em anywhere? you show me yours I’ll show you mine (actually did and do) only put up an entirely different set of XY correlation charts to use as tools for a long-term look-ahead. URL available on request.
a Georgian speculation – March was triggered by sentiment discovering how bad the economy was (= end of the world). Rally was triggered by sentiment shift to we’re alive and the world’s not ending, sustained by mis-interpreting earnings. Seems to me we’ve been entirely Sentiment driven every time this thing is about to roll over. Now does anybody else detect a subtle shift where the realization is beginning to sink in how bad this is going to be for how long?
Dblwyo they are mostly copied from other sources. This week included chicago and manufacturig pmi, consumer confidence, unemployment, auto sales. Am sure you’ve seen em around
NO! It is NOT safe!
Thanks for the nice welcome everyone. I am a general dentist, so the drill will be running later today when I head to work. I’m in AZ, so it is only 7 am here.
Nice prediction on the $SPX heading up about 10 points today (+8 as I write this).
Happy trading everyone!
k….i would like to see one more stock low…..i want to sell more zero coupon treasuries today
XMO is taking an unabated massive bath! It could step down to March lows PDQ.
K – thanks. Likely have. I’ll give you my URL after the close then. Roll my own and they’ve been pretty accurate for about four years now.
I can only imagine some pretty warped hedging activity is going on with the buck. I expect something as hideous as pork bellies to blow the $#^% up any minute now.
As to XOM, watch out for a stunning surge as the winds of change turn into a methane squeeze!
Well I am still a freak of nature
K there are no freaks in nature just Natural Freaks!
phil:
Can you smell what the nature boy is cooking!!????
Hilarious clips:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8v_vSDJP6hU
WOW, who guessed 2thfixr was a dentist? Nice going. Some sharp folks on this blog.
Ah, it was junglegirl. You win the daily prize.
phil:
I’ve got Ric going and a chart of XOM in the background. Woooo!
The market is like a cat right now, it got up this tree and doesn’t know what to do next. Meow.
I vote for up. BBT trying to do the same.
12:28am
I guess if am asking for 10 points then 1035.95 in SPX would do justice.
currently high was 1035.01
The Natural Freaking soup natzi just served one more cup of soup.
K,
Roll over after 1035.95? I have the 1042 area as a big kahuna.
K,
Is “natural” the same as “organic”?
You hit that last one close. Looks to me that if SPY was going to do a Humpty-Dumpty on the 15min it would have done so by now. Portends for more upside unless it shows some weakness here. BBT has beeen weak more-or-less.
no idea george but i got my target and thats all i care.
roll over if you want. non mfg pmi was better than expected which means businesses are expanding but i doubt it will last long
after midnight I also said
” i’m looking at 1033 in the futures.”
hmmm high so far 1032.50
LOL (Mitch: am wiretapping GS)
K:
Woooo! I’m almost hoarse now.
futures are bouncing off of 78.6% fib mentioned earlier in this thread. 1028
if they hold phil going to put his horns back on.
phil:
Who coined the phrase “you can’t start a fire worried about your little world falling apart?”
mitch…..THE BOSS…… springsteen…..ps just sold zero coupons held since our june peak in rates for 70% gain
K if stocks start to take off my bonds will fall …selling more bonds now
phil:
I should have bought them for my boys’ college fund.
junglegirl, the oracle expects a 3cts move in the EUR/USD this week. The scary thing is, he is very explicit. Usually people are wrong when they get confident.
Now we’ve got a 2thfairy dancing in the dark – interesting place.
mitch……buy zeroes only after a sharp correction…now i am selling into this bond rally
K, Mitch,
I don’t think this is a feature, this is a lost opportunity…
they think it is a feature when you close the Main-window, the settings are preserved. But as soon as you change something, you set-up is lost
Yerk,
3cts, eh? Okay then. Thanks for the post.
Yerk:
Oviously it can be done (aside from approx. 10% of folks choosing this and adding a strain to their servers as the code executes and loads) why would this not be an option?
I wonder if today’s slop could possibly be an ED c wave of iv. Thoughts? That would imply that after this last shove up, we would see more red. As always, other counts can also be applied.
JUNGLEGIRL…..you still havent answered my question….”is it safe??”
phil,
Is it ever safe?
Okay, the market just met all of my criteria. We *could* fall from here.
However, the ED line (if that’s what this is) still sits above us, so the market has a little more room to run to the upside if it wishes. Say 1037-1040ish? Suspense.
Mitch, don’t know about strain. It is a nuisance to reconfigure the windows, nothing more. If I could save the settings for all windows I could change things for some different analysis and then reload my basic set-up. Now I’m running two instances of the software and try to be careful to close the unimportant one first…
Turn, baby, turn. Do it NOW.
JG:
XOM making an inverted h/s? LS from 9/24?
Or a mini ih/s from 10/1?
Mitch,
I don’t trade XOM, so I’d have to look at it later. Right now I have to work the trades I put on. Sorry.
Yerk
If you right click on a chart and go to style and then set chart default. That makes that chart the default setting so you can change the settings and then reload default from the original. Is that what you were wanting to do?
String
R2K and COMPQ not making new highs compared to earlier today, unlike the SPX and DOW.
junglegirl I had the opportunity to attend a life session with the guy. what might be be of interest to you, he does the alternate count on the higher time frame than the one he is trading. Also he does a lot of 1-2 1-2 setups. Was very entertaining, almost real-time labeling on the 1min chart. He has the next about 5 wave labels already with the target where the market will go to on the chart and rearranges them accordingly. Changes the count if necessary to ultimately reach the target. His method depends of course depends on the market reaching the target…
Uranium has looked tired for a while.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/UX/W
2. Statistics from the world’s only Spot Market for Supply and Anchor Vessels (PSV and AHTS). The North Sea. Hint: The current spot rates are terrible and the number of Vessels is killing the market.
http://www.westshore.no/print.php?m=sider&m_action=vis&id=1
Divergences on the 1 min for that last tiny shove up. That could be it.
Yerk,
That’s very interesting. Thanks.
String, this is what I do for one window, but as I sometimes have six windows open with different settings I was dreaming of a meta-set-up save, eg getting all set-ups back with one mouse-click… Maybe I should limit myself a bit
Yerk you can I think LOL haha ill get back to you in a while when I hop on a computer
Dear George, made a small foray into ICE at EOD Fryday, up $2.50 on my buy of 500shs, think I will close her down now…thinking the market could do a JG any time now and ICE may follow…
Correction: Gulf of Mexico probably has a spot market too.
dollar-spx divergence… euro/dollar almost back at last Wednesday’s level.
Larry, one question – does the north sea market depend primarily on oil production? Don’t know what PVS and AHTS actually are…
Yerk
As an alternative you can go to each one of those charts and do a save Style. Then name them. Then you can do a load style to make any chart look like that style. Then can make a new chart from defaults and start again. I just keep all the windows open when I shut down from the main, and that brings back all those individual charts with their last settings.
String
String, yeah, you are better organized than I am. I’m too fat fingered so I keep destroying my set-up
The problem is always in front of the keyboard.
XOM:
I came to scoff but now I see a run to no less than the close of the 9/30 daily candle. May take a day or two.
Randall,
Nice trade!
Randall,
NICE on ICE. It is a great trading stock. I can’t short it so I miss out on half the fun.
I didn’t buy it at close Friday. But I scalp it almost daily unless it has a heavy down-turn. I used to trade it almost exclusively. It makes some good counters, too.
phil,
We should nickname you the “bond king” or “bill gross, Jr”.
Some volatility here. I’ve been pampering my SRS pet today, hoping this is the move that will stick with the Tres Cruzars.
This is where SPY likes to bounce off its 5min36ma.
george, if the 4h is driving this we have room to run. it has to turn the daily though. picture clearer on the futures, but they are usually not the ones making the judgement call.
Yes, SPY has to get past this resistance at 1042. If it does, more uppage.
Guess they had to run the stops. Figures. GS upped the ante on the banks: buy ratings. Make the market go up more. Now we’ll see. A w2 a w4 of lesser degree, or something else.
JG – speaking of Dustin’s teeth Jim Jubak had this interesting little post on future capital requirements and profitability impacts:
http://jubakpicks.com/2009/10/05/banks-are-going-to-have-to-raise-a-lot-more-capital-says-hsbc-ceo/#more
You might also want to take a gander (post close) at this Tech Ticker interview with Chris Whalen on banks:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/348944/The-%22Real%22-Economy-Is-Dying-Q4-%22Going-to-Be-a-Bloodbath%22-Whalen-Says?tickers=XLF,SKF,FAS,FAZ,MS,GS,HCBK
dblwyo:
Have you ever heard of Henry Blodgett?
I’m expecting a lot of covering going on with BBT due to that huge drop the last couple of days. At some point.
dblywo,
this is a well written summary about the bigger picture – and I love the title: http://seekingalpha.com/article/164452-recession-is-over-depression-has-just-begun?source=article_sb_popular
No commitment at the close. SPY will try to bust through that 1042 again. Covering in financials. Go with the flow.
dblwyo and Yerk,
Thanks for the links. I’ll read them later.
Yerk – it is. Thanks for the pointer. I will quibble a bit over the “depression” label however but that’s headlining for attention. Since it’s close let me keep my promise to K and point to:
http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2009/10/refreshing_the_economic_outloo.html
The focus on debt is critically important imho – the biggest problems are in households, businesses and finance:
http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2009/09/debt_wealth_finance_outlook_si.html
BtW – Wessel in the WSJ has a nice column last week that comes to identical conclusions (and no, that’s not a coincidence…hint).
Mitch – have heard of Henry the Blodgett
but afraid your point escapes me. Care to amplify?
Whalen “astounded” by GS’ upgrade today:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/349054/%22Astounded%22-by-Goldman's-Upgrade-Banks-%22Heading-Into-the-Storm%22-Whalen-Says;_ylt=AuMxTX9gE5lqd2bPrlvCRLO7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2Y2dwaWUwBHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDYXN0b3VuZGVkYnln?tickers=gs,wfc,cof,xlf,skf,bac,CMA&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
dblwyo:
Funny you should say “amplify.” Well, I spelled his name wrong. You seem to follow and study sentiment. Henry understands cyber news lquite well. Doesn’t news make sentiment?
Hey, let’s rehearse and take our schtick on the road – that is funny. There must be dozens of people in each major city ready for black financial humor.
Henry founded Tech Ticker btw – though you probably already know that. He was also one of two key analysts along with Mary Meeker who were most contributory to the Tech Bubble over-hype and was barred for life from the industry.
I follow four things: structure – deep changes (think Kondratieff if you like), fundamentals (economic mainly but also industry/company, my modest real skill set), technical (muchas gracias Matt & Co.) and Psych (Sentiment). The factors weight differently in different timeframes – ultimately Mr. Market is a hardnosed rationalist and settles on the first two but can be a giddy teen subject to fashion whims. Was it Warren who said something like in the short-run the Market is a popularity contest but in the long-run …
Henry neeedn’t hold his head down. There was no bubble. Investment banks just pulled it all forward – gave mom and pop whiplash. Now they have jet lag and can’t turn the @#$%$ gas pump on.
Well well well I was right that friday was a bear trap so it sucked today. I’ll evaluate again but looks like we need another lower low (lower than friday) in order to hit 1100+
GEORGE….i dont mind being called bond king ….but please dont call me GROSS……lol
junglegirl….. from marathon man movie….the dentist kept drilling dustin hoffman and asking him…..IS IT SAFE???….thats what i was referring to b4
K…you may be interested ….i took home a small short position….
thanks for the links. I hold IRA in high regard, they have deep insights about the things under the rug in the banks.
Lol well I go screwed but was right on (asked for min 10pt rise) hrmmm did I choose my destiny when I came up with my website name?
Phil glad to see you aren’t sharpening your horns instead. I’m short 100% but with about 10% of the account used. And all are options. I miss the good ole stock days
there is chance for an island reversal on the dax. Depends on the Asians. Just juggling, no balls dropped today.
dblwyo, that some solid analysis at your site. Well done. Have you tried delays to get higher r²?
phil,
OK, Bond King it is. No, you’re not “gross”, maybe “net”.
K:
If you learn nothing else today please get this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zAOF-92I3U
Wooooo!
ok for whoever cares /ES hit the 100% retracement fib at 1038.65
also fib arc of 50% retracement held it down too. lets get one down day and i will reverse my positions to bull