On Friday, the VIX printed a bar entirely above its upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart. The last time it did that was on September 2nd, and this is what I wrote back then:
The VIX’s daily bar spent nearly the entire day above its upper Bollinger Band on Wednesday. That’s not something you see very often. It happened at the bottom on March 17, 2008, but then again before the big plunge on September 16, 2008. It could signify the end of a minor panic, or the beginning of a larger panic.
It turned out to be the end of a minor panic that time, of course. What the market does today might give us a strong directional hint just like it did on September 3rd.
Sunday evening, the futures made a bullish ascending-triangle pattern which flopped near 1026. It did the exact same thing on Friday afternoon. So, since the jobs report, the bulls have have a 0-2 win/loss record.
A trio of bears weighed in today. It’s hard to argue with any of them.
Soros says our banking system is “basically bankrupt” and consumers have debt coming out of their ears.
Roubini thinks the market is discounting a “v-shaped” recovery and will therefore be disappointed with a “U”
Robert Prechter (Elliott Wave guru) says the bear market resumed in September. Prechter, of course, is predicting a full blown Depression.
K, that’s all already priced in
Yerk, shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
I know. haha as I said i need a day of pullback to load with some long bets. why do you have to blow my cover?
futures will fail in the 1043 area anyways so HA!
Mitch,
I used to go to Flair’s Gold’s gym in Charlotte. He would come in and exercise some with a gathering. He didn’t do much weight, I think he was just drumming up business and had his own weight room at his house.
He’s not a big guy like some of today’s wrestlers. And as I remember, he was very nice and quiet – yes, quiet.
Mitch,
I think I could take him.
George, that’s what I’m talkin bout – wooooooo!
Technically George,
haha im a freak
The fib retracements align just right for you to have a lot of support and little resistance. so take him!
http://www.doobybrain.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/bloggers-disclosure.jpg
HAH HAH HAH
K,
The “truth in advertising” way back when, used to require a person advertising a product to actually use it for X amount of time, etc.
K,
There’s plenty of “fibs” when those guys start speaking, er, screaming. I have to admit, they are talented and put on a good show.
WOOOooooo
Yerk – didn’t mean to appear to ignore you, just caught your question in passing. Glad you looked at the stuff and glad you liked it. Have looked at lags and there’s a slight R2 improvement but not so much as to be worth all the econometric agonies of diddling excel into pretending it’s a stat package. Close enough for blog work in other words. I am btw talking about a few points here and there.
If you’ve ever looked at my earlier stuff I’ve been using YoY% changes for years now so already have a very good idea of what patterns, trends and turning points are in place. What I was looking for was reliable rules of thumb for guestimating how much things might go up. So for example just by eyeballing the Employment chart you could figure out that 2.5% Employment growth requires ~4%+ GDP growth and, knowing 2.5% employment growth is breakeven guess how robust a recovery we’re likely to see. Or take a look at the investment related charts and tell me you believe the earnings outlooks behind the NDX runups
!
Larry,
Bloomberg reports that the Gulf states plus
several countries plan to drop the dollar
for oil trading. If true, the U.S. does not
have a bright outlook…will move into
South American status. Your thoughts please.
Paula,
for a second i thought you were moving to south America.
for those not wanting to look further about what paula said
In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.
Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars…
the rest is here
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/10/plans-to-move-away-from-dollar-pricing-of-oil.html
Mitch,
I checked out XOM this weekend and see a nice triangle forming on the weekly chart that performed well today. Given the previous downtrend from $90, and the slope of the triangle, I’m looking for a breakout on the downside. Do you agree? If you do, what time frame are you looking for this breakout to occur (obviously, before the point of the triangle, but how much sooner)?
My chart is included here:
http://www.freestockcharts.com/?emailChartID=f8ed82a2-8efb-4bf1-82b4-0de3d2107a9c
Mitch,
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOM&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69114327155
mr dentist. it would need to break below 67 on the hourly and below 63 on the monthly to make any significant down move. Weekly and daily are already pushing down hard on it.
just sayin